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Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

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Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#81

Post by luckylion »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #39
luckylion wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that thread: > Can we riot on the internet? And I think that hits the core issue. There's a lot of "eat the rich" on reddit and imgur and undoubtedly other platforms, but that's like #kony2012: clicktivism and online LARPing as revolutionaries. Riots are always a possibility, a sports event can be the cause, and so may be severe economic issues, but I doubt that they will be widespread and large. If they happen,…

I imagine that the distributed nature of the internet is actually what hurts it in this case - you riot over sports because your team won and the energy is palpable when you go out into the streets to join the crowd. There's less physical location to share this unrest, so it's largely just spent harmlessly online.

That's my impression as well, and online excitement is a bad predictor of offline activity. It's one thing to comment "smash the system" below a picture of a guillotine, it's quite another to go out to tango with the riot police or national guard. One of can have very real consequences, and that'll filter out the large majority.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#82

Post by pinkfoot »

sokoloff wrote: post #56
0x262d wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their jobs were most often outsourced by US companies looking to get higher profits from cheaper labor. It would be a lot more effective to solve this by enforcing equivalent, high working standards across the world, rather than blaming Chinese people for desperately needing a job like everyone else. But then profits would be lower, oh no.

Not only would profits be lower (disincentive for companies), Chinese [or other off-shore] employment prospects would be worse (disincentive for them to comply). Trade makes people better off in general, but it doesn't make every person better off.

Just as the USA goes to extreme efforts to avoid the higher labour standards offered in Northern Europe.

Always look up and down the continuum.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#83

Post by lotsofpulp »

sp332 wrote: post #49
lotsofpulp wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it. Less than 15% of adults have student loan debt, and only a small portion of those are past due. Plus young people don’t vote. The only thing that might happen, is what has happened which is to delay payments or maybe interest, but politically, student loan borrowers are not a sympathetic group to other voters. https://www.investopedia.com/student-loan-debt-2019-statisti...

Presidential elections have been pretty close lately. A candidate might increase their odds of winning substantially by swinging a fraction of a percent of actual voters.

They would have to swing voters who live in swing states. Voters in non swing states don’t matter. I also don’t think voters in swing states are particularly sympathetic to those with student loans either.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#84

Post by Exmoor »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #5

I'm trying to decide where the line between sound economic advice and scaremongering sits. I think it may be around "You’re going to start having food riots soon enough." At least I hope that's scaremongering. Given that everyone is doing their best to return to normal, I feel like running out of unemployment may not be as big of an issue as stated.

I also doubt we'll see widespread food riots in the rich world. Our issues are mostly specific food scarcity due to supply chain issues and increases in food prices that likely won't be too painful for people who are still employed. That said, I would say it's a near certainty in parts of the developing world, where a food supplies are more tight and food costs a much more significant part of the average person's budget.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%9308_world_food_pri...

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#87

Post by imesh »

mydongle wrote: post #37
elindbe2 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about you, but I have very sensitive conversations with my self--out loud--while making toast.

I too engage in classified discussions regarding geopolitics and military operations while making toast.

I don't. But I imagine I would if it was my job.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#88

Post by derg »

kube-system wrote: post #53
derg wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are enough people completely divorced from reality in congress and in and around the presidency that it will potentially get incredibly hairy. I can absolutely see it getting to the absolute brink before they suddenly realize "oh shit this is bad" and pass an emergency "freedom payment" which again will be a one time thing and not be completely enough. My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one s…

The federal stimulus never was nor was intended to be a long term solution to anything. Social safety nets in the US are mostly handled at the state level, and that doesn't look like it's showing any signs of changing.

what happens when the states run out of money though, that is ultimately the problem. how long are the states going to be able to keep up without federal intervention?

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#89

Post by ethagknight »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #17
djsumdog wrote: post #11

Predicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were…

Student loan debt is interesting because it could swing an election. All it needs is a candidate offering to write it off and a large enough portion of the population that stands to gain. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen in the next decade or two.

It could have the opposite effect too. For every person with an outstanding student debt, there may be another 3 people who absolutely do not want to "pay" someone else's student debt. Those who have gone to great lengths to successfully pay off their student debts might be particular vehement against such policy.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#90

Post by mirimir »

Aperocky wrote: post #22
kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

The article just want you to believe that 'The Chinese' would want to put a microphone with 5G into your toaster. So that they could listen to YOU through the said toaster, because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese. Is there a more moronic idea? If someone were to listen to you, wouldn't it be easier to say... do it through the phone?

> So that they could listen to YOU through the said toaster, because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese.

Sure. But maybe they'd care a lot about some tiny percentage of toaster talkers. And they likely know how to find it.

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