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Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

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Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#31

Post by lotsofpulp »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #17
djsumdog wrote: post #11

Predicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were…

Student loan debt is interesting because it could swing an election. All it needs is a candidate offering to write it off and a large enough portion of the population that stands to gain. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen in the next decade or two.

I doubt it. Less than 15% of adults have student loan debt, and only a small portion of those are past due. Plus young people don’t vote. The only thing that might happen, is what has happened which is to delay payments or maybe interest, but politically, student loan borrowers are not a sympathetic group to other voters.

https://www.investopedia.com/student-loan-debt-2019-statisti...

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#32

Post by papeda »

djsumdog wrote: post #11

Predicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were…

> Israel had the year of Jubilee, where every 50 years debts would be forgiven

How would this work? Wouldn't people just not enter into contracts near that 50 year mark? Is it randomized?

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#33

Post by 0x262d »

chroem- wrote: post #29
0x262d wrote: post #27

Important to understand with all the US-China stuff - working class people in both countries should mutually benefit from higher productivity, the open development and sharing of technology, from trade, etc. The only thing driving a rift and opening up a "cold war" is that US and Chinese capitalists can never get along because they are competing for the same pool of profits. Everyone else has pretty mutually benefici…

A lot of people in this country have lost their jobs due to outsourcing.

Their jobs were most often outsourced by US companies looking to get higher profits from cheaper labor. It would be a lot more effective to solve this by enforcing equivalent, high working standards across the world, rather than blaming Chinese people for desperately needing a job like everyone else. But then profits would be lower, oh no.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#34

Post by tootie »

kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

I think some legitimate concerns are popping up with so many poorly-engineereed iot devices hitting the market. I think the fears are amplified due to simple lack of understanding. I'd propose we start certifying consumer electronics for data safety the same way we certify them for electrical safety. We should start recognizing some groups like UL or ETL for software.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#35

Post by philipov »

crankylinuxuser wrote: post #10
kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

Yeah I ran across some scaremongers on Twitter 6 months ago who were going on about vaccines (??) And 5G. I had and still have no clue about that. As a real aside, networking everything does definitely have upsides and downsides. Upsides: seamless monitoring, remote control via api, integration across a house/car/phone, remote presence (never worry that door was open, or coffee pot is on, or garage door up). Downside…

> Joe Chip said, “I’ve never been sued by a door. But I guess I can live through it.”

What a genius visionary...

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#36

Post by sp332 »

kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

The thing with wifi is that you increasingly need a password to join. If a device comes with its own 4G/5G internet connection, it doesn't need your permission to phone home anymore.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#37

Post by mydongle »

elindbe2 wrote: post #28
Aperocky wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article just want you to believe that 'The Chinese' would want to put a microphone with 5G into your toaster. So that they could listen to YOU through the said toaster, because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese. Is there a more moronic idea? If someone were to listen to you, wouldn't it be easier to say... do it through the phone?

I don't know about you, but I have very sensitive conversations with my self--out loud--while making toast.

I too engage in classified discussions regarding geopolitics and military operations while making toast.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#38

Post by SantalBlush »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #19
pm90 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait what? Unemployment payments are the only things that are preventing a full scale depression and hardship for millions. These people have lost their jobs, have no savings or assets, nothing. How are they going to get food? Pay rent? The quick action by Congress in boosting unemployment payments has been the only thing keeping the economy from going belly up. If that stops, we’re in for a lot of hurt.

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

Right, even our federal shutdowns eventually come to an end with both parties reaching a budget agreement. The consequences of neglecting this unemployment crisis would be worse than a prolonged shutdown.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#39

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

luckylion wrote: post #26
Jommi wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know man, just looked at front page of /r/ unemployment: https://www.reddit.com/r/Unemployment/comments/gofuf5/illino... The "anti-rich" topic has been going on for so long without a real conclusion, I definitely would not discredit the possibility of riots in certain US cities.

From that thread: > Can we riot on the internet? And I think that hits the core issue. There's a lot of "eat the rich" on reddit and imgur and undoubtedly other platforms, but that's like #kony2012: clicktivism and online LARPing as revolutionaries. Riots are always a possibility, a sports event can be the cause, and so may be severe economic issues, but I doubt that they will be widespread and large. If they happen,…

I imagine that the distributed nature of the internet is actually what hurts it in this case - you riot over sports because your team won and the energy is palpable when you go out into the streets to join the crowd. There's less physical location to share this unrest, so it's largely just spent harmlessly online.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#40

Post by derg »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #19
pm90 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait what? Unemployment payments are the only things that are preventing a full scale depression and hardship for millions. These people have lost their jobs, have no savings or assets, nothing. How are they going to get food? Pay rent? The quick action by Congress in boosting unemployment payments has been the only thing keeping the economy from going belly up. If that stops, we’re in for a lot of hurt.

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

There are enough people completely divorced from reality in congress and in and around the presidency that it will potentially get incredibly hairy. I can absolutely see it getting to the absolute brink before they suddenly realize "oh shit this is bad" and pass an emergency "freedom payment" which again will be a one time thing and not be completely enough.

My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term

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