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Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

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Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#71

Post by dehrmann »

tootie wrote: post #34
kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

I think some legitimate concerns are popping up with so many poorly-engineereed iot devices hitting the market. I think the fears are amplified due to simple lack of understanding. I'd propose we start certifying consumer electronics for data safety the same way we certify them for electrical safety. We should start recognizing some groups like UL or ETL for software.

Except security is more of a moving target, so I'd rather see 1-3 open-source embedded distros that commit to supporting hardware for 10 years with over-the-air updates. Fly-by-night device makers have made it clear they can't be trusted with this. I'd also like to see a standard for a IoT gateway so you can easily observe your IoT traffic. Finding a way to open this up would go a long way in building trust.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#72

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

sp332 wrote: post #58
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

You're thinking of a government that has rational people in charge. We have an extended family running one branch and a party holding on to power by its fingernails in the Senate. Look at the latest developments in the Inspector General purge. Trump is firing his 5th (6th? I lost count) IG, and illegally installing the replacement before the last one has been officially processed out. The new one is still an employee…

You're totally right - the state of Denmark is thoroughly rotten, but even under this administration the debt ceiling crises were able to be resolved. The government shut down for a good long while, but it resumed function. Maybe it's past the point of no return, but sanity does seem to shine through at the last second when it must.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#73

Post by csharptwdec19 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #31
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Student loan debt is interesting because it could swing an election. All it needs is a candidate offering to write it off and a large enough portion of the population that stands to gain. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen in the next decade or two.

I doubt it. Less than 15% of adults have student loan debt, and only a small portion of those are past due. Plus young people don’t vote. The only thing that might happen, is what has happened which is to delay payments or maybe interest, but politically, student loan borrowers are not a sympathetic group to other voters. https://www.investopedia.com/student-loan-debt-2019-statisti...

Any solution to student loan debt that doesn't fix the problem of how we wound up in the situation shouldn't (and probably won't) get widespread support for at least another 5 years or so.

Even as someone who's still paying off student loans, it's hard to want blanket forgiveness unless there is a system put in place to help minimize the number of people taking out loans for degrees that have a low chance of being able to make enough to make the cost worth it.

IOW, if a degreeholder in Underwater basket weaving on average makes only 5k/year more than someone who doesn't, we probably should limit the number of loans given to people pursuing those degrees.

Yes, this means many universities will have to trim down or eliminate programs. Perhaps it doesn't make sense for more than one or two colleges in a state (especially in smaller states) to have underwater basket weaving degrees.

There's also the psychological aspect to keep in mind; I recall my time in college and the first few years of what I was doing with my career, versus many of the people I know who are now complaining about student loans.

I graduated close enough to the 2008 crash that I couldn't get a job in my field after college. Building my career was years of long hours, cost me my marriage, and left me without a social life. Most of my associates who now complain about their student loans constantly were waiting for the next job to 'drop in their lap' (I even helped one get a job. They eventually got fired because they were incapable of even showing up to work less than an hour late for 6 months straight. No, they didn't think to save any of the extra money they made.)

That really there is the biggest rift: What's the solution that doesn't make people who sacrificed other parts of themselves to pay their bills feel like they got ripped off for doing the right thing?

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#74

Post by 0x262d »

sokoloff wrote: post #69
0x262d wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand, disincentive for who, to comply with what?

If China would make themselves less competitive "by enforcing equivalent, high working standards across the world", they have clear disincentives to enforce compliance.

Oh, yes. That's been used to drive down the standard of living in the US (including within it) forever. That's why competition is bad for labor. The only real escape from the market's race to the bottom is a democratically planned economy IMO.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#75

Post by dublinben »

crankylinuxuser wrote: post #10
kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

Yeah I ran across some scaremongers on Twitter 6 months ago who were going on about vaccines (??) And 5G. I had and still have no clue about that. As a real aside, networking everything does definitely have upsides and downsides. Upsides: seamless monitoring, remote control via api, integration across a house/car/phone, remote presence (never worry that door was open, or coffee pot is on, or garage door up). Downside…

Cory Doctorow has an excellent short story Unauthorized Bread about this very topic.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#76

Post by rgbrenner »

kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

You didnt mention the biggest flaw in the argument: 5g has nothing to do with microphones.. and saying that 5g == microphones kind of says a lot about the writer's understanding of tech.

Adding a microphone to a toaster would also be easy to recognize if the device were torn down. Maybe people won't do that to every toaster, but if this were widespread, a few toasters from different brands would eventually be torn down, and finding a microphone repeatedly would raise alarm.... I doubt this would work for very long before Chinese goods faced restrictions.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#77

Post by StephenAmar »

He is making lots of wild predictions about technology and automation.

5G in toasters? Come on. Is 5G really such a ground breaking technology that will change everything?

Automating car manufacturing? Tesla tried and it failed them - https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/13/17234296/tesla-model-3-ro... No way Hyundai can do it tomorrow.

Replacing janitors with Roombas?? What the hell is he talking about.

Lots of promises about AI, but so far, it has underdelivered.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#78

Post by kube-system »

dmm wrote: post #60
kube-system wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Networking things makes sense when remote interaction is useful. There is very little you can do with a toaster, microwave, or coffee machine while you are not physically present. You can't send toast, coffee, or leftovers over a network. The 'internet of things' isn't useful in and of itself. There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it. I haven't had to worry about the coffee pot being on for decade…

> There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it. The use case is additional revenue streams for appliance makers from selling surveillance derived data. Every smart tv is a revenue stream for the manufacturer. That's why you can't buy dumb tvs anymore. Soon your coffee maker, your toothbrush, your car, your refrigerator, and everything else that plugs in or has a battery will be "smart" in the same way…

That works works out for TVs because of a few specific things:

1. The consumer wants to hook their TV up to the internet to get content

2. TVs ads have a well established market of buyers who will pay for that data

3. TVs are expensive and consumers often buy primarily on price

By comparison, there is no market for the data from my coffee pot, and little to no incentive for a consumer to choose a model that collects data over one that doesn't.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#80

Post by PopeDotNinja »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #23
PopeDotNinja wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I've been reminded of this year is that panicking is not useful. Shit can happen at anytime, and being prepared to weather a downturn of any type is always in fashion. Have a 3 to 6 month emergency fund is a good idea, improving your skills for unexpected job loss is a good idea, regular disciplined investing if a good idea, yada yada. So I'm just doing my best to ensure my butt is covered for if/when the defeca…

I agree with a lot of what you're saying - assuming it's possible for someone to do it - low wages make much of that difficult. > improving your skills for unexpected job loss is a good idea This is the one I struggle with when I see it - if your industry collapses what skills are the ones you should have been working on? Software is our own special beast, but I don't know what skills in a lesser paid profession shou…

I don't think anything can prepare you for an entire, sudden collapse. If the world software biz goes full quantum programming, qubits and all, in the span of a few days, I'm screwed. But if I get canned from my job as a dev, that work I put into learning a few algorithms, scaling on AWS, and some marketable programming language will give me a fighting chance. If I were a MUMPS programmer who had never used version control in my 20 year run in some job and I'd never learned JavaScript, losing my job would be traumatic.
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