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Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

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Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#61

Post by 0x262d »

sokoloff wrote: post #56
0x262d wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their jobs were most often outsourced by US companies looking to get higher profits from cheaper labor. It would be a lot more effective to solve this by enforcing equivalent, high working standards across the world, rather than blaming Chinese people for desperately needing a job like everyone else. But then profits would be lower, oh no.

Not only would profits be lower (disincentive for companies), Chinese [or other off-shore] employment prospects would be worse (disincentive for them to comply). Trade makes people better off in general, but it doesn't make every person better off.

I don't understand, disincentive for who, to comply with what?

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#62

Post by sandworm101 »

Aperocky wrote: post #22
kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

The article just want you to believe that 'The Chinese' would want to put a microphone with 5G into your toaster. So that they could listen to YOU through the said toaster, because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese. Is there a more moronic idea? If someone were to listen to you, wouldn't it be easier to say... do it through the phone?

>> because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese.

Amazon and google think it important enough. The line between comercial utility and national security is blurry at best. Whould the chinese be interested in how many people were chatting about a paticular presidential candidate during breakfast? Whould that candidiate be interested?

And yes, some normaly everyday people do say things that are more direct\ly interesting to China. Anyone here in the military? Anyone here with family in the military? Anyone here work for a company that does work for the military? Big-net intelligence collection is a real thing.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#63

Post by true_religion »

sp332 wrote: post #58
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

You're thinking of a government that has rational people in charge. We have an extended family running one branch and a party holding on to power by its fingernails in the Senate. Look at the latest developments in the Inspector General purge. Trump is firing his 5th (6th? I lost count) IG, and illegally installing the replacement before the last one has been officially processed out. The new one is still an employee…

Right but will the States actually let this happen? If there are food riots, it’s the locals who suffer.

Will Florida really wait for the federal government when Jacksonville is full of rioters, or will they setup food banks far in advance of that situation?

I predict the later. Especially since States can do debt financing for their operations.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#64

Post by dehrmann »

I'd take what Roubini says with a grain of salt. Economists have predicted 10 of the last 7 recessions, and a broken clock is right twice daily.

In recent history, he was a bit late to the coronavirus party, not really being on-board until late February. Preppers were all over it in January.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#65

Post by karatestomp »

leetcrew wrote: post #55
karatestomp wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can get a pretty dumb coffee maker that has a delayed brew setting. You'd have to put the grounds and water in anyway, so the extra effort is pressing a couple buttons on the machine right after you do that, rather than a couple buttons on your phone in the morning.

this solves the problem for most people, but coffee enthusiasts aren't going to like the idea of grinding the beans 8+ hours before brewing.

Well of course not but if you're an enthusiast you'll probably spend more for one that grinds, too. Or not use a machine, so the whole issue of brew-by-wire is moot. Point is this is a pretty common feature even on cheap machines, with no Internet connectivity required, and the effort required to use it is about the same.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#66

Post by rootusrootus »

derg wrote: post #40
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

There are enough people completely divorced from reality in congress and in and around the presidency that it will potentially get incredibly hairy. I can absolutely see it getting to the absolute brink before they suddenly realize "oh shit this is bad" and pass an emergency "freedom payment" which again will be a one time thing and not be completely enough. My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one s…

> absolute brink

I would agree, but in an election year maybe they won't play it that way. The party in power has more incentive to keep voters mollified than they do in preserving their ideological purity.

> we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term

100% agree. This is the classical American response, we have mastered the art of kicking the can down the road.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#67

Post by bryanrasmussen »

kube-system wrote: post #20
crankylinuxuser wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I ran across some scaremongers on Twitter 6 months ago who were going on about vaccines (??) And 5G. I had and still have no clue about that. As a real aside, networking everything does definitely have upsides and downsides. Upsides: seamless monitoring, remote control via api, integration across a house/car/phone, remote presence (never worry that door was open, or coffee pot is on, or garage door up). Downside…

Networking things makes sense when remote interaction is useful. There is very little you can do with a toaster, microwave, or coffee machine while you are not physically present. You can't send toast, coffee, or leftovers over a network. The 'internet of things' isn't useful in and of itself. There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it. I haven't had to worry about the coffee pot being on for decade…

Toaster art https://art-sheep.com/a-toaster-that-can-print-your-selfie/

specifically toaster porn needs to be networked.

ugh, the future is awful.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#68

Post by shliachtx »

papeda wrote: post #32
djsumdog wrote: post #11

Predicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were…

> Israel had the year of Jubilee, where every 50 years debts would be forgiven How would this work? Wouldn't people just not enter into contracts near that 50 year mark? Is it randomized?

It did end up having that effect, which is why Hillel the Elder created a device called the "Prozbul" which transferred debt to the court before the Jubilee year, thus preventing forgiveness and enabling borrowers to borrow even close to the Jubilee. This is one of the few (maybe only) true loopholes invented by the Rabbis, with the justification "so as not to close the door to borrowers."

Edit: Wikipedia link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prozbul

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#69

Post by sokoloff »

0x262d wrote: post #61
sokoloff wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only would profits be lower (disincentive for companies), Chinese [or other off-shore] employment prospects would be worse (disincentive for them to comply). Trade makes people better off in general, but it doesn't make every person better off.

I don't understand, disincentive for who, to comply with what?

If China would make themselves less competitive "by enforcing equivalent, high working standards across the world", they have clear disincentives to enforce compliance.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#70

Post by 8note »

johnchristopher wrote: post #51
mydongle wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too engage in classified discussions regarding geopolitics and military operations while making toast.

The enemy would rather you to have conversations about private matters they can blackmail you with though (or any piece of information that would help them find out how to help you tip to their side).

They're going to find out you eat Dijon mustard, disqualifying you from running for president
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