Live data from Hacker News

Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

nymag.com

51–60 of 130 posts

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about you, but I have very sensitive conversations with my self--out loud--while making toast.

I too engage in classified discussions regarding geopolitics and military operations while making toast.

The enemy would rather you to have conversations about private matters they can blackmail you with though (or any piece of information that would help them find out how to help you tip to their side).

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#52

Some interesting points but some of them are not internally consistent: Author claims that the stock market is up because people are sitting at home day-trading driving up prices. Then a few paragraphs later claims that cash is king and people are unlikely to spend. Author claims that 2009 Fed spending made sense because it was an aggregate demand issue. That was not very clear then as it was unclear that many of the…

sorry but lmao at people who think small daytrading drives these markets.

The author has zero credibility. Never listen to this dangerous moron ever again. He doesn't deserve a conversation thread.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#53
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

There are enough people completely divorced from reality in congress and in and around the presidency that it will potentially get incredibly hairy. I can absolutely see it getting to the absolute brink before they suddenly realize "oh shit this is bad" and pass an emergency "freedom payment" which again will be a one time thing and not be completely enough. My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one s…

The federal stimulus never was nor was intended to be a long term solution to anything.

Social safety nets in the US are mostly handled at the state level, and that doesn't look like it's showing any signs of changing.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#54
post #27

Important to understand with all the US-China stuff - working class people in both countries should mutually benefit from higher productivity, the open development and sharing of technology, from trade, etc. The only thing driving a rift and opening up a "cold war" is that US and Chinese capitalists can never get along because they are competing for the same pool of profits. Everyone else has pretty mutually benefici…

People seem to want to downvote this. A similar contradiction exists with automation, which the article explains a little. Automation should be a good thing. It means that if we could all feed ourselves and make commodities yesterday, after we automate some people out of jobs today, we should still easily be able to support them at the same high living standard, except they're free to do nothing (or something else useful instead, or shorten the work week for everyone). But instead, automation is used to crush labor costs, ie, our living conditions. Labor arbitrage across the pacific ocean is similar. Workers in the US shouldn't be in competition for jobs with either robots or Chinese people. But when the owners of companies have to always desperately compete for maximal profits, these are all nightmares for workers.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Playing devil's advocate, but I can see how people would appreciate a network connected coffee maker. My wife likes to stay in bed and scroll through her newsfeeds in the morning. If she could start the coffee maker from her phone, it would probably get her out of bed a lot faster.

You can get a pretty dumb coffee maker that has a delayed brew setting. You'd have to put the grounds and water in anyway, so the extra effort is pressing a couple buttons on the machine right after you do that, rather than a couple buttons on your phone in the morning.

this solves the problem for most people, but coffee enthusiasts aren't going to like the idea of grinding the beans 8+ hours before brewing.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#56
post #33
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of people in this country have lost their jobs due to outsourcing.

Their jobs were most often outsourced by US companies looking to get higher profits from cheaper labor. It would be a lot more effective to solve this by enforcing equivalent, high working standards across the world, rather than blaming Chinese people for desperately needing a job like everyone else. But then profits would be lower, oh no.

Not only would profits be lower (disincentive for companies), Chinese [or other off-shore] employment prospects would be worse (disincentive for them to comply).

Trade makes people better off in general, but it doesn't make every person better off.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#57

Predicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were…

Student loan debt is interesting because it could swing an election. All it needs is a candidate offering to write it off and a large enough portion of the population that stands to gain. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen in the next decade or two.

Peter Thiel had the idea of allowing student loan debt to be dischargable in bankruptcy to the university that granted the degree. Seems like a reasonable idea to me.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#58
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait what? Unemployment payments are the only things that are preventing a full scale depression and hardship for millions. These people have lost their jobs, have no savings or assets, nothing. How are they going to get food? Pay rent? The quick action by Congress in boosting unemployment payments has been the only thing keeping the economy from going belly up. If that stops, we’re in for a lot of hurt.

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

You're thinking of a government that has rational people in charge. We have an extended family running one branch and a party holding on to power by its fingernails in the Senate. Look at the latest developments in the Inspector General purge. Trump is firing his 5th (6th? I lost count) IG, and illegally installing the replacement before the last one has been officially processed out. The new one is still an employee of the department, which not only compromises the whole idea, but exposes whistleblower complaints to management. The Senate hasn't even called a hearing about it.

I don't mean to argue over any details, just pointing out that our federal government has had an axe taken to it for the last few years and it might not be able to do very obvious things right now.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#59

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

The article just want you to believe that 'The Chinese' would want to put a microphone with 5G into your toaster. So that they could listen to YOU through the said toaster, because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese. Is there a more moronic idea? If someone were to listen to you, wouldn't it be easier to say... do it through the phone?

Putting a microphone in the kitchen is probably one of the best ways to spy on people in their homes.

The kitchen is a natural gathering place, and spot for conversations.

And if I thought someone was spying on me, I would check the inside of my toaster last.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I ran across some scaremongers on Twitter 6 months ago who were going on about vaccines (??) And 5G. I had and still have no clue about that. As a real aside, networking everything does definitely have upsides and downsides. Upsides: seamless monitoring, remote control via api, integration across a house/car/phone, remote presence (never worry that door was open, or coffee pot is on, or garage door up). Downside…

Networking things makes sense when remote interaction is useful. There is very little you can do with a toaster, microwave, or coffee machine while you are not physically present. You can't send toast, coffee, or leftovers over a network. The 'internet of things' isn't useful in and of itself. There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it. I haven't had to worry about the coffee pot being on for decade…

> There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it.

The use case is additional revenue streams for appliance makers from selling surveillance derived data. Every smart tv is a revenue stream for the manufacturer. That's why you can't buy dumb tvs anymore.

Soon your coffee maker, your toothbrush, your car, your refrigerator, and everything else that plugs in or has a battery will be "smart" in the same way.

Here's the Vizio exec explaining why they would have to charge a premium for "dumb" tvs:

https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/7/18172397/airplay-2-homekit...

Post reply on HN