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Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?
Given the ages and health conditions of the dead, what is the chance that a vaccine will do any good to them? Remember that the flu vaccine is of very dubious effectiveness on those aged 65+. Of course, vaccinating the whole population might render those groups less likely to be infected (because of herd immunity) but still, it will involve vaccinating populations which have little risk from the disease with a vaccin…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The SARS-1 outbreak lasted about two years. But if it _does_ vanish in a few months (sadly, this doesn't seem plausible), it would probably make sense to produce and stockpile a vaccine, if a viable one is found, but not actually vaccinate unless it reappears.
Did it realy last 2 years? This graphic indicates that it lasted only for 4 months, then is was more or less over: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...
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I have no hard data (and I don't think anyone has, at this point), but eradication is IMO going to be tricky even if we have a very potent vaccine, at least looking at how much it took for chicken pox.
Oh absolutely. Eradicating this thing via vaccination any time in the next 24 months will take a completely unprecedented feat of worldwide collaboration. But I'm optimistic, the current situation has everyone focused on the issue. Except Trump trying to get some special deals for early access or whatever the fuck it is that he's doing.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If it did disappear, sure. But it won't. Way too many infected all over the globe now, eradication is impossible without a vaccine. Either it will eventually infect the entire world, or we'll vaccinate against it. Those are the only two options at this point. Even if an entire nation managed to eradicate it via distancing, it would only take a single carrier arriving by any means from another country to initiate a se…
Third option: we fight it with drugs and we prevent / reduce hospitalizations, and it becomes a disease like every other.
Nature had a nice graphic showing the different approaches being taken: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01221-y
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/23/a-... (updated May 1)
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/18/an...
unfortunately on the treatment side, theres also this https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/14/gilead-should-ditch-remd...
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Obviously not, but why would it do that? It's already spread in a way that none of the other SARS variants have, which invalidates that part of the analogy.
Global natural herd immunity could suppress the disease cases to next to nothing. The problem is there's a very high price to pay before we get there.
The virus would need to spread a lot faster globally than it has so far to accomplish that mass herd immunity before the people hit in the first months lose immunity and become susceptible again. At the rate it's going, the virus will still be raging in numerous parts of the world toward the last quarter of the year, just in time for influenza season to start up again in the northern hemisphere.
It's the scenario where you persistently have cases in many parts of the world that are able to reinfect locations that have built up herd immunity previously (and then lost that immunity), so the virus just keeps going around the planet and you can't fully get rid of it. Whack-a-mole style.
Perhaps very long-lasting travel lock-downs could isolate that risk somewhat, however I'm skeptical about that working effectively as the world is still super connected in terms of supply chains and transiting goods (and the people that move them), mixed with the nature of this virus (specifically how easy it is to spread).
Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?
If it did disappear, sure. But it won't. Way too many infected all over the globe now, eradication is impossible without a vaccine. Either it will eventually infect the entire world, or we'll vaccinate against it. Those are the only two options at this point. Even if an entire nation managed to eradicate it via distancing, it would only take a single carrier arriving by any means from another country to initiate a se…
If an area has contained it once, they have to do it again. They have to try. They are not immune.
If the US decides to go it alone on the herd immunity approach, because they are incapable of making any other approach work, and all other countries reduce the infection rate to close to zero over the summer with the lockdown approach, that US travel ban aint getting lifted.
Most countries have attempted lockdown, opening up as and when their health services are able to cope.
If US citizens were immune but contagious, US citizens would only be free to travel within US borders.
Could end up with Lockdown, branded as freedom.
In that light it makes sense to what ever the rest of the world does.
Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?
If it did disappear, sure. But it won't. Way too many infected all over the globe now, eradication is impossible without a vaccine. Either it will eventually infect the entire world, or we'll vaccinate against it. Those are the only two options at this point. Even if an entire nation managed to eradicate it via distancing, it would only take a single carrier arriving by any means from another country to initiate a se…
A few countries/regions currently have close-to-zero new cases and may become green zones where economic and other activities will mostly resume to normal.
Measures that have been used include quarantine and follow-up contact tracing.
Given the ages and health conditions of the dead, what is the chance that a vaccine will do any good to them? Remember that the flu vaccine is of very dubious effectiveness on those aged 65+. Of course, vaccinating the whole population might render those groups less likely to be infected (because of herd immunity) but still, it will involve vaccinating populations which have little risk from the disease with a vaccin…
There are plenty of people under 65 who are being killed or suffering major medical issues due to COVID-19. A friend of mine is in great health, 40, and spent 6 days in the ICU and may never recover fully (lung function damage). A vaccine would be great.