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TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

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Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#381

Post by Kirby64 »

magicsmoke wrote: post #48
jandrese wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having to ship the raw material halfway across the world. More stringent environmental protections--fabs generate many tons of hazardous waste. Higher healthcare costs for the workers. Plus they use lots of water which is more expensive in Arizona.

Considering how the low cost of shipping enabled globalization I doubt the shipping costs matter much. I'm also not sure if environmental protections are that much more stringent in the US than in Taiwan. Higher healthcare costs and water might make sense, but the bulk of the water cost in semiconductor manufacturing is probably due to the purification processes required than the volume of water used.

Shipping costs matter some when you go from being right next to the factory that makes your raw silicon wafers to having them be halfway around the world. In general it sounds like a big factor is cost - you've got to get talent that just doesn't exist (or isn't as widely available) in the US.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#382

Post by vonmoltke »

Nokinside wrote: post #269

Important detail: This is not GIGAFAB facility. Only 20,000 wafers per month is between mini- and megafab for TSMC. I suspect the production goes to US defense applications. Pompeo tweeting about it seems to confirm it. https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1261143980634509318 ? >Secretary Pompeo >@SecPompeo >The U.S. welcomes TSMC’s intention to invest $12B in the most advanced 5-nanometer semiconductor fabrication f…

> I suspect the production goes to US defense applications. Pompeo tweeting about it seems to confirm it.

It doesn't. Just because he referenced "national security" does not mean this fab will be dedicated to producing chips for DOD contractors.

The DOD has been making a shift to COTS processing hardware over the past couple decades. Part of the national security implications of this fab is preventing supply chain disruption in the event something happens with China. This serves to both guarantee the ability to supply COTS hardware to the DOD and to reduce the impact on the overall economy, making it more difficult for China to hold the US over a barrel by threatening its technology industry.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#383

Post by throw51319 »

sneak wrote: post #34
3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #11

At least one component of the "America First" strategy I can fully get behind is bringing manufacturing back to the US mainline. If anything that last few months has taught us, it's that we must not lose our ability to produce quality, vital products. Semiconductors definitely falls into that category. I don't care how it's accomplished, either carrots (tax incentives) or sticks (tariffs). Do what's necessary to brin…

Consider for a moment that less reliance upon foreign supply chains makes {trade, cold, shooting} war more viable. Right now the world is peaceful and I stand in North America with an iPhone 11 Pro in my pocket and an advanced Nvidia GPU in my workstation. I’m not sure I see a problem with that state of affairs. Reducing interdependence reduces the downside to stupid, selfish nationalistic moves. I don’t want that at…

The whole point is that right now China does not depend on us as much as we depend on them for manufacturing. We need to correct the balance, or at least expanding manufacturing in neutral or allied countries.

If a war breaks out now, they are in a better position regarding manufactured goods. Rare earth metals too.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#384

Post by mschuster91 »

readarticle wrote: post #311
mschuster91 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In and of itself, what value does raising the living standard of millions of poor Chinese provide to Americans? Rising living standard means more consumers that can buy American goods, and it also means that the likelihood of civil war/uprisings due to poverty goes down, which in turn reduces the potential for wars.

Assuming a vacuum, the larger market is always fair, but I don’t see how it’s at all possible to value the presence or absence of conflict without a context.

> but I don’t see how it’s at all possible to value the presence or absence of conflict without a context.

Taking into account how much the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts have cost the US in money, how much lives and potential was lost, is actually easy.

Don't get me wrong, it was a good intention to get rid of the Taliban and Saddam, but the execution failed horribly. And that were backyard 3rd world countries. A conflict involving China would be an utter bloodshed, especially if it devolves into nuclear war, and it would totally destroy the US and probably EU economy.

We're seeing how much we depend on China now with the 'rona crisis, and that is a "China does their best effort to fulfill Western orders for anything from toys to medical PPE" scenario and not a "China is at war with the US and doesn't deliver anything to them and their allies" scenario. Politicians have also realized this but renationalizing even parts of what was outsourced to China will take decades. Until that happens China has the Western states by the balls, figuratively - and given how they acted with delivering PPE "donations" to Italy and other states that the EU left to fend alone they know this and are absolutely willing to use this as leverage to keep the US and EU from interfering in their eradications of Uighur Muslims and Tibetan people.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#385

Post by boomboomsubban »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #367
boomboomsubban wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy. How so? There hasn't been a sharp rise in military spending, they haven't invaded anywhere, and they've largely maintained their same course on most of the disputed territories.

South China Sea

The border conflict ongoing for their entire existence? Technology has advanced some of the methods, but not drastically different.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#386

Post by magicsmoke »

MR4D wrote: post #366
type-2 wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.

China is working on taking Hong Kong first, before moving onto Taiwan. I give it between 1-5 years before they move in some way on Taiwan. One thing I would not bet on is a direct military incursion - that would cause too many foreign headaches. Something messy that's hard to pull apart is better. The current events with social unrest in HK are a good example of creating ambiguity. The one interesting thing to me is…

There's a pretty interesting part about how Chinese media describes the causes of the unrest in Hong Kong that gives a window into how they think about the world and human nature. That is, the point about how Hong Kong's unrest is due to its education system that gets raised.

Right now, 1 country 2 systems means that PRC can't just dismantle HK's education system and institute their own until 2047. But the comments HK's education system indicate that the PRC thinks if they could just put HK's children through a state-approved education system, in 1-2 generations all the unrest in HK would be over. This is a worldview that people are ultimately malleable, or at least their children are, and that with the right childhood education you can get people to believe anything. Brainwashing, after all, is originally a word from Chinese that became an English loanword. In this worldview, everyone who's gone through schooling is brainwashed in some way to support the state that created the education system. And this worldview applies to any state-sponsored education system in the world. Take a Chinese immigrant family in America, put their 2nd gen kids through the American education system, by the 3rd gen you have Americans that can't imagine themselves as anything other than Americans.

This worldview that people can be molded is probably why China is in no rush to exercise full control over HK and Taiwan. After all, if people's national identities are so easily changed, any discontent in HK and Taiwan today can be brainwashed away in few generations. It's far more important to focus on the physical and economic levers that would allow China to exercise long-term control over those regions than social levers that determine whether people in those regions actually like the prospect. If they don't like it, their children will.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#387

Post by boomboomsubban »

magicsmoke wrote: post #371
boomboomsubban wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy. How so? There hasn't been a sharp rise in military spending, they haven't invaded anywhere, and they've largely maintained their same course on most of the disputed territories.

In comparison to when Mao was around and China was invading Vietnam or funding communist groups across the third world in the 70s, China today is quite tame. In comparison with China of the 90s and 00s, China of the 10s has definitely been more aggressive. In 1990s when the Philippines grounded an old navy ship on Scarborough Shoal in the south China sea to reinforce their claims, there was barely a peep from China.…

>In 1990s when the Philippines grounded an old navy ship on Scarborough Shoal in the south China sea to reinforce their claims, there was barely a peep from China

They engaged in combat with both Vietnam and the Philippines over islands in the 80-90's, and effectively took over Mischief Reef in 94 by building bases on an island. Not to mention what was a huge victory for them in the return of Hong Kong. That was their primary aim for much of those decades.

There probably is some growth in aggression, but nothing like "Xi's waiting for an election before invasion."

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#389

Post by Jon_Lowtek »

Ericson2314 wrote: post #365
AgloeDreams wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like something China might treat as an act of aggression by Taiwan..right? Like, now they are giving China good reason to see Taiwan as hostile, esp. with all their efforts to snuff out Taiwan.

I am sure China likes this. If TSCM is scared of a PRC takeover and trying to move investment out of the country, Well China's messaging is working. Maybe before Taiwan was sufficiently richer per capita that taking it over had something to do with its wealth, but now it's a almost exclusively a matter of pride and nationalism. If they get control of a deindustrialized husk, they can say "Look at all the US boot-lick…

The annexation of Taiwan is about access to the pacific ocean, or to be precise, about minimizing the risk of a blockade and about strategic depth on their eastern border. The communist party is literally playing grand strategy and from their perspective, they are surrounded by enemies. This is not nationalist pride, it is nationalist paranoia.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#390

Post by Nokinside »

vonmoltke wrote: post #382
Nokinside wrote: post #269

Important detail: This is not GIGAFAB facility. Only 20,000 wafers per month is between mini- and megafab for TSMC. I suspect the production goes to US defense applications. Pompeo tweeting about it seems to confirm it. https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1261143980634509318 ? >Secretary Pompeo >@SecPompeo >The U.S. welcomes TSMC’s intention to invest $12B in the most advanced 5-nanometer semiconductor fabrication f…

> I suspect the production goes to US defense applications. Pompeo tweeting about it seems to confirm it. It doesn't. Just because he referenced "national security" does not mean this fab will be dedicated to producing chips for DOD contractors. The DOD has been making a shift to COTS processing hardware over the past couple decades. Part of the national security implications of this fab is preventing supply chain di…

COTS parts are part of defense supply chain management. Only manufacturer of critical components within 200 km from Chinese border is strategic vulnerability, COTS or not.
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