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Leviathan in Lockdown

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Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#21

Post by ThrowawayR2 »

dragonwriter wrote: post #18
ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> " What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm. " That's a misrepresentation. Both sides understand that economic harm is guaranteed. The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties. Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but…

> Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but, being HNers, we can afford to weather the storm; the majority are not so fortunate. Polls show the vast majority of the population supports extending shelter-in-place, and (in polls where it gets broken out) that that support is stronger among the lower economic strata. Opposition, though weak everywhere, is stronger among people who worry abo…

I don't disagree with any of that and, again personally, I hope the poll numbers stay that favorable. Nothing would delight me more than the public behaving in a sensible fashion.

However, I also don't think the economic impact has truly started to bite into enough of the population hard enough yet. It will be interesting to see where those polls sit in a couple of months.

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#22

Post by motohagiography »

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #16
Seibai wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm. The consensus among economists is that not having a lockdown would be worse for the economy than having one: http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-cr... The opportunity to avoid economic damage passed as soon as COVID-19 became pandemic. Ending lockdowns early will make econo…

> " What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm. " That's a misrepresentation. Both sides understand that economic harm is guaranteed. The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties. Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but…

I'm personally in favour of incremental re-openings in stages because today's tech and ability to co-ordinate gives us real data on their impact.

There is a legitimate concern that the longer a hard lockdown/quarantine goes, the more ethically thorny it gets because authorities inadvertently accumulate the responsibility to prioritize the selective distribution of relief under the lockdown. That's when you get the revolts you're seeing in states today by people who are taking family losses and seeing them given to those they perceive as politically privileged groups. True or not, that perception is what drives people into the streets to protest.

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#23

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

jsmith99 wrote: post #4
OliverJones wrote: post #2

Two things: 1. The graphic is a woodcut. Details take a LOT of time to produce, and they make the woodcut less durable. 2. Remember that Hobbes's Leviathan idea was revolutionary back then. The idea that each of us answers to an abstract entity of truth and justice overturned the idea that the monarchy could, and had to, dream up every single rule of conduct (or point to the Hebrew Bible when it was convenient). Here…

That's not a woodcut. It's acid etched on metal.

Are you sure? Looks more like a https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kupferstich to me, no acid involved.

(sorry for the german wikilink, but it has more pictures than the english equivalent)

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#24

Post by ardy42 »

dragonwriter wrote: post #18
ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> " What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm. " That's a misrepresentation. Both sides understand that economic harm is guaranteed. The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties. Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but…

> Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but, being HNers, we can afford to weather the storm; the majority are not so fortunate. Polls show the vast majority of the population supports extending shelter-in-place, and (in polls where it gets broken out) that that support is stronger among the lower economic strata. Opposition, though weak everywhere, is stronger among people who worry abo…

> Polls show the vast majority of the population supports extending shelter-in-place, and (in polls where it gets broken out) that that support is stronger among the lower economic strata.

Which totally makes sense to me. Those with lower economic status have less power, so if they want to shelter-in-place they have greater need for a government order to provide cover for their decision.

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#25

Post by [deleted] »

motohagiography wrote: post #6

The emphasis of plague doctors in that cover is pretty consistent with the things a state will face. Plague has been an essential factor in all government since beginning of time. There even is biblical trilemma for rulers that is basically the option of three days of plauge, three months of fleeing from your enemies, or three years of famine. The answer is rip the band-aid off and accept the plague casualties becaus…

[deleted]

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#26

Post by carapace »

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #16
Seibai wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm. The consensus among economists is that not having a lockdown would be worse for the economy than having one: http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-cr... The opportunity to avoid economic damage passed as soon as COVID-19 became pandemic. Ending lockdowns early will make econo…

> " What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm. " That's a misrepresentation. Both sides understand that economic harm is guaranteed. The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties. Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but…

There are no "both sides" to a virus.

> The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties.

The question is how to mitigate the harms.

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#27

Post by carapace »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #11
zzzeek wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things like vaccines and ICU units didn't exist in Biblical times so perhaps 2000 years of progress has had some effect on the calculus of such an issue.

Not really. Vaccines help you prevent an outbreak from reoccuring; it's unlikely one would be created in time to stop an ongoing one. ICUs help minimize causalties. Neither one is a qualitative change in terms of handling a sudden outbreak. We got better at handling pandemics, but the playbook is mostly still the same - identify and isolate infected, and wait it out.

It's absurd to point to "biblical trilemma" as something that should inform a modern society on how to handle a pandemic.

> "three years of famine"

Less than 3% of the population is involved in food production in modern times.

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#28

Post by phkahler »

Seibai wrote: post #15
motohagiography wrote: post #6

The emphasis of plague doctors in that cover is pretty consistent with the things a state will face. Plague has been an essential factor in all government since beginning of time. There even is biblical trilemma for rulers that is basically the option of three days of plauge, three months of fleeing from your enemies, or three years of famine. The answer is rip the band-aid off and accept the plague casualties becaus…

What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm. The consensus among economists is that not having a lockdown would be worse for the economy than having one: http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-cr... The opportunity to avoid economic damage passed as soon as COVID-19 became pandemic. Ending lockdowns early will make econo…

>> What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm.

It seems silly to me that people don't think that balance exists. The question isn't weather it exists, it's how do you calculate it. The human side is considered "easy" since they do keep an estimate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life

The hard part in this case is projecting anything meaningful in terms of both number of people dead under different scenarios, and the economic losses. Both are super hard to estimate, but to think that kind of balance is somehow "immoral" is kinda short sighted. It's a form of the trolley problem.

D-Day was known in advance to be a huge loss of life. People in places of power sometimes have enormous responsibility in no-win situations. We can hope that they have the right motives.

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#29

Post by jtbayly »

carapace wrote: post #27
TeMPOraL wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Vaccines help you prevent an outbreak from reoccuring; it's unlikely one would be created in time to stop an ongoing one. ICUs help minimize causalties. Neither one is a qualitative change in terms of handling a sudden outbreak. We got better at handling pandemics, but the playbook is mostly still the same - identify and isolate infected, and wait it out.

It's absurd to point to "biblical trilemma" as something that should inform a modern society on how to handle a pandemic. > "three years of famine" Less than 3% of the population is involved in food production in modern times.

Are you saying famine can't happen today? I don't get it.

Re: Leviathan in Lockdown

#30

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

jtbayly wrote: post #29
carapace wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's absurd to point to "biblical trilemma" as something that should inform a modern society on how to handle a pandemic. > "three years of famine" Less than 3% of the population is involved in food production in modern times.

Are you saying famine can't happen today? I don't get it.

I think it's fair to say that famine can't happen in areas with access to modern agricultural technology. (Which is a very real difference; until modern times there was no country so rich or productive that it didn't have to worry about famine.)
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