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Getting Back to Work

tesla.com

231–240 of 332 posts

Re: Getting Back to Work

#231

One important point in this discussion is that workers only have to return at their own discretion. Since no worker is being forced to work, the argument is best thought of as whether or not workers who chooses to work should be allowed to do so given Tesla's plan. They can also stay at home if they prefer, or seek other employment if they want to work but find Tesla's safety plan unconvincing.

With record unemployment factory workers do not have such a luxury to just walk away if they dont like Tesla's plan.

For most this is "lose your housing/food" or "risk getting Covid"

Re: Getting Back to Work

#232
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lives are the economy. The lockdown protects the economy.

Are you intentionally being simplistic or do you really think that’s a reasonable statement? Are you literally trying to claim that any given life is a fungible economic unit? According to the NHS, over half of deaths attributed to covid in the UK were going to die within a year anyway, from other causes. Over half of deaths are from nursing homes in many places. We’re sacrificing the economic livelihoods of our chil…

I think it’s a reasonable statement, in fact I’d say it represents orthodox economic thinking. Permanently removing hundreds of thousands of people from the economy (as well as temporarily removing millions) will depress both aggregate demand and productivity for decades to come.

The government and the central bank should support people of working age with fiscal and monetary policy for as long as they are kept safely on the bench.

Another point that’s worth making is that even someone in a nursing home is way more economically active than someone who is six feet underground.

In short, there’s no tension between protecting “the economy” and protecting people’s health. We avoid fighting a war that we cannot win, we bide our time, and then confidently return to full output when the medical crisis has been fixed.

Re: Getting Back to Work

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but I do know that continuing to pursue current policies until some indefinite point in the future is untenable. Go strawman, go! California and NY both have plans for slowly reopening in the comings weeks or months with various metrics guiding the timelines.

Serious question: can you show me the metrics for california with concrete targets that will trigger reopening? The last plan I saw wasn't a plan at all, it was just guidelines.

I don't see the difference between plan and guidelines from any practical point of view.

There is a statewide timeline and counties can open slower/faster. There's a list of criteria for counties to consider. This is a slide deck summarizing things at a state level, it notes a variety of metrics that are being looked at:

https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-...

Re: Getting Back to Work

#234
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s be real. All this drama by Elon Musk has very little to do with his “concern” for workers. He just wants to resume production so the business can resume. This is the same person that refused to shut down the factory and put his workers’ health at risk. The motive behind his dangerous tweets and tantrums is pretty clear for everyone to see.

At this point with Musk it feels like he does stuff just to get attention. That whole business with calling the diver who saved a bunch of kids’ lives a paedophile was disgusting and it amazes me that anyone has any respect for Musk as a person anymore.

And yet here we are on hacker news, where many, many commentators have no problem with either of these facts.

Re: Getting Back to Work

#235

Is this like SARS or like flu ? SARS is no flu. In the recent Joe Rogan podcast Elon Musk was talking about the need for more accurate data. The scientific facts seem blurry at the moment. Watching the dutch news, the next steps seem to be a number of restrictions on the movements which seem sensible. Doctors have to deal with even more virues and infections. What needs to happen is, how can people work efficiently w…

It's somewhere in between SARS and the Flu. Definitely much more deadly than the Flu, definitely less deadly than SARS (but more contagious).

Re: Getting Back to Work

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The estimated fatality rate with everything taken into account is around 0.5%. That's covering asymptomatic people, etc, etc. Assuming 200 million Americans get infected the result is 1 million additional deaths. That's a lot.

Among what age group, though? Using an average morbidity across the entire population is misleading. Everything I've read indicates that the morbidity scales very highly with age so that it would be something like (making this up here) 0.05% for people under 40, scaling up very quickly as you get to the elderly population. The question then becomes can we effectively quarantine at-risk groups instead of the entire po…

Do you have any research or data showing that the lives of the elderly and immunocompromised are less valuable than those considered more safe?

Re: Getting Back to Work

#237
post #218

This is the very best article I have read on the lockdown: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leade... The positive is that Washington state acted early and the Bay Area followed quickly which resulted in lower hospitalization and deaths. Tech’s quick move to WFH probably helped slow the spread. This was driven by the Washington state health officials who worked with Microsoft. Bay Area tech compa…

I think the most extreme version of your point #2 was when health officials and scientists made public statements that masks were ineffective - despite mountains of evidence to the contrary, in order to reserve mask supplies for healthcare works.

Spreading misinformation in the name of good.

The most clearcut evidence of this was a world renouned epidiamologist admitting exactly this on the podcast This Week In Virology a few weeks ago. I will add the source (also in my comment history) when I get home.

Re: Getting Back to Work

#238
post #218

This is the very best article I have read on the lockdown: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leade... The positive is that Washington state acted early and the Bay Area followed quickly which resulted in lower hospitalization and deaths. Tech’s quick move to WFH probably helped slow the spread. This was driven by the Washington state health officials who worked with Microsoft. Bay Area tech compa…

I wouldn't be as critical when it comes to making only demands that will be accepted. That's not really manipulative IMO, and Swiss authorities were also very open about doing this.

Announcing a short lockdown then extending it (when it was clear from the beginning) is more problematic - basically, giving people false hope because they know that telling people to lock down for 3+ months would lead to a large number of people either rioting or ignoring the rules. Conversely, I suspect that some of the reductions in lockdown strictness are there to reduce the risk of dissatisfaction/loss of compliance, not based on what is safe.

The biggest problem are the outright lies (e.g. about masks not helping). This may have helped alleviate the shortage, but at what cost? The next time authorities say "you don't need X", people will remember and depending on other evidence, fewer or more will take it as "I definitely need X".

As a specific example, schools in Switzerland will reopen tomorrow, with the government claiming that this is safe because children don't spread it much. This may or may not be based on science (there are contradicting studies supporting either side), but because I know that I cannot trust the official statements, I am assuming that the motivation is letting more people get back to work, and expect a spike in cases. Thus, I'm restricting myself less now than I would be willing to if I could reasonably expect the situation in three weeks to be better, not worse, than the situation now, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Re: Getting Back to Work

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A source: > A review by Forbes found 24 investigations by California Occupational Safety and Health Administration inspectors from 2014 to 2018, resulting in fines for 54 violations. These include new penalties that haven't yet hit the national online OSHA database, and they nearly double Tesla's fines over the last five years, to $236,730. * https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/03/01/tesla-sa...

I don't think this is very damning nor unexpected. A plant with the degree of _change_ that Tesla has on its product line would likely have a very very dynamic production floor - resulting in more violations. It also seems that the OSHA rules were not designed for Tesla's unique processes, so many of those violations, if you actually read them, are not relevant to Tesla and have nothing to do with safety. This proble…

> Also, there have been no deaths or serious injuries, so it's hard to argue that safety was actually compromised here.

Safety was compromised due to the Heinrich/Bird safety pyramid, or accident triangle:

> It shows a relationship between serious accidents, minor accidents and near misses and proposes that if the number of minor accidents is reduced then there will be a corresponding fall in the number of serious accidents. […]

> The theory was developed further by Frank E Bird in 1966 based on the analysis of 1.7 million accident reports from almost 300 companies. He produced an amended triangle that showed a relationship of one serious injury accident to 10 minor injury (first aid only) accidents, to 30 damage causing accidents, to 600 near misses.[3] […] The numbers used by Bird were confirmed by a 1974 study by A. D. Swain, entitled The Human Element in Systems Safety.[3] The theory was later expanded upon by Bird and Germain in 1985's Practical Loss Control Leadership.[1]

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accident_triangle

The more minor things happening, the greater the probability of a major incident happening, leading to greater chances of a death down the road.

The whole point in going hard on the small things is to help reduces the odds of things escalating because it's easy to get sloppy in one's thinking over time, and you can get 'risk creep'.

* https://risk-engineering.org/concept/Heinrich-Bird-accident-...

Re: Getting Back to Work

#240
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for being a diamond in the rough, Dan. Your tireless work keeping Hacker News a safe haven for free thinkers and polite politic is essential during times like these.

I think we need to do more in this space. As HackerNews had become more popular, it has begun the inevitable transformation from a place of analysis to a place of advocacy. ...which inevitably results in a drop in quality and substance and a rise in partisanship. HackerNews thrived for a long time by keeping under the radar, but what we really need now is a new mechanic that rewards dispationate analytic content and…

Agree.

"A safe haven for free thinkers and polite politic" is very much in the eye of the beholder, methinks.

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