US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M • Hacker News Board

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#171

Post by generatorguy » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:03 AM UTC

jcrawfordor wrote: post #124

pupdogg wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand your negative perception on such situations but do you honestly believe that wind mills will come to a screeching halt with such outage? No, I’m not implying that they will power the entire nation but I have a hard time believing that those small sunsets of folks will also not have power.

The vast majority of electrical generation equipment, which is to say virtually all of it, is designed to either shut down or isolate from the grid when a disruption of electrical grid frequency is detected. This is to protect both the equipment and the grid, in the case of mechanical generators and even some solid-state generators connection to a significantly off-frequency grid (e.g. due to severe load imbalance du…

In BC ive heard of natural gas compressor stations have a natural gas turbine generator to run its own electric motor compressor. If it is connected to the functioning grid they can choose whether they Buy or sell electricity

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#172

Post by mepiethree » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:09 AM UTC

beckingz wrote: post #45

jerkstate wrote: post #32

Did this guy even talk to a power grid engineer before posting his opinion? Offline spares of long lead time equipment are always kept by utilities. The risk to the power grid is institutional knowledge, if something happens to the small group of greybeards who run each regional utility, they could bring in new qualified engineers but it would take time to understand the system (which would cause an outage that eithe…

The main issue is that ultra high voltage transformers are large, expensive, have long lead times (12-36 months!), and are built almost entirely in China. You're correct though, that the entire energy industry skews old and is at risk of losing a lot of knowledge as talent retires. The real risk is squirrels and trees though. Flora and fauna do not play well with transmission equipment.

yeah, squirrels are going to kill us all someday. here's a fun map of all the power failures caused by squirrels, as documentation of WW3

https://cybersquirrel1.com/

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#173

Post by bonchicbongenre » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:12 AM UTC

s5300 wrote: post #135

flipgimble wrote: post #99

This article has an unexpected resonance for me after several weeks of pandemic lockdown. Just three months ago I would have laughed it off. Now I am increasingly pissed off. In the US, but I see reflection of this in Europe as well, has allowed irresponsible puerile imbeciles to be elected. These people play games with wealth and power, with no regard to the lives and well-being of the society that pays for it. I di…

Quite tired and ill right now so I'm unfortunately not going to be able to write this out even slightly well... but for some reason, I want to post the thought anyway so I will. (Note: I'm a U.S. citizen) In short: As an engineering student with quite severe chronic illness that also got fucked over by abusive parents/a broken home I couldn't escape even with scholarships... I simply can't come to the moral conclusio…

This really resonated with me. I am very sad to say that I agree with you. I'm a PhD student elsewhere now, but did my undergrad at UPenn in the States and was absolutely disgusted by the framing of science/learning/academia in the country in general (as well as the country's general level of media discourse). Of course, school itself was wonderful, and I'm blessed to have had such humbling peers there; that stood as such stark dichotomy with the country as a whole. The social moment very much felt like I imagine being a Soviet biologist watching Lysenko come to power would. I worked so hard for social good in the US, but it all felt futile. I chose a respectable opportunity at a program in my home country (Canada) over higher-ranked options in the US because of it. I know a number of friends who similarly chose foreign programs over previously more desirable American ones.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#174

Post by swampthing » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:17 AM UTC

s5300 wrote: post #151

alden_penny wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a software engineer and have given considerable thought to leaving the US because I am struggling to come to terms with how my taxes are spent and politics in general here. It's universally bad. I'm considering Finland, Sweden, Norway, or Switzerland. They all rank high in happiness, high in democratic representation, and low in corruption. All are difficult to immigrate to but I basically feel a moral obligation…

The only issue I do have with leaving is the war thing. The past few years, I've really been telling myself we're probably at the point that China really does have the U.S. militarily beat if it comes down to it... but despite how many of us HN'ers are aware of some frivolous military budget spending (like literally doing something, tearing it down, and doing it again to spend the budget) - some of those hundreds of…

In what way does China have the U.S. beat from a military standpoint? I am no expert, but as far as I know, the U.S. military is still far stronger.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#175

Post by angry_cactus » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:26 AM UTC

closeparen wrote: post #163

s5300 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're going to have to specify... You talking like, U.S. declaration of Independence, or more/less recent than that...? While my mind is fuzzier now, I like to think it was a "things change for the better" else - engineers/scientists completely stop giving a fuck about helping the U.S.

Trump's election reflected a popular belief that rule by establishment experts was so intolerable, literally anything else would be better. It was the same passionate, desperate anger, the same "fuck it, let the world burn" strategy, just pointed in the opposite direction.

Opposite direction? Same direction as the poster above, just in different language.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#176

Post by closeparen » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:28 AM UTC

angry_cactus wrote: post #175

closeparen wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump's election reflected a popular belief that rule by establishment experts was so intolerable, literally anything else would be better. It was the same passionate, desperate anger, the same "fuck it, let the world burn" strategy, just pointed in the opposite direction.

Opposite direction? Same direction as the poster above, just in different language.

The mandate was to respect scientists less, not more.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#177

Post by mepiethree » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:35 AM UTC

If it were as easy as spending $300M, every utility company in the country would be falling over themselves to do it. Utility companies make their money by rate basing their capital expenditures. The rate you pay for electricity is set by the state, to guarantee a certain ROI for the utility on approved infrastructure. Utilities literally spend money to make money.

I couldn't agree more that our electric grid needs more investment. I won't pretend to know better than the PUCs and the utilities about how that should be spent or what should be passed on to the ratepayer. The only thing I do know is that my company (Kevala) has mapped tens of thousands of substations, transmission lines, and HV transformers, so it seems we would have a lot more to back up than those 30. Good time for non-wires alternatives?

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#178

Post by redis_mlc » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:37 AM UTC

swampthing wrote: post #174

s5300 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only issue I do have with leaving is the war thing. The past few years, I've really been telling myself we're probably at the point that China really does have the U.S. militarily beat if it comes down to it... but despite how many of us HN'ers are aware of some frivolous military budget spending (like literally doing something, tearing it down, and doing it again to spend the budget) - some of those hundreds of…

In what way does China have the U.S. beat from a military standpoint? I am no expert, but as far as I know, the U.S. military is still far stronger.

The only reason we've had relative peace since WW2 (75 years) is because of the strength of the US military. Prof. Hanson has argued that America's isolationist policy before WW2 actually caused it.

China generally doesn't start foreign wars, because they're too busy waging them on their own people. :)

About the only way the US could lose a war is by total surprise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Davis_Hanson

AMA.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#179

Post by batterseapower » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:54 AM UTC

ars wrote: post #19

I wonder how many other rare disasters there are that cost only 300M to prepare for. If it's just a couple, then sure, fund this one. But if there are thousand of possible rare disasters - how can you possibly fund them all?

I was curious about this question too so I tried to find a list of comparable risks. Wikipedia has a list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Global_catastrophic_r...

The solar flare risk (at ~1% per year [1]) seems much more likely than many of the other items there. Supervolcanos, pandemics, war, and AI also seem like salient risks, but we probably shouldn't worry about e.g. gamma ray bursts or asteroids.

[1] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201...

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#180

Post by mepiethree » Mon, May 04, 2020, 6:58 AM UTC

jerkstate wrote: post #32

Did this guy even talk to a power grid engineer before posting his opinion? Offline spares of long lead time equipment are always kept by utilities. The risk to the power grid is institutional knowledge, if something happens to the small group of greybeards who run each regional utility, they could bring in new qualified engineers but it would take time to understand the system (which would cause an outage that eithe…

> Did this guy even talk to a power grid engineer before posting his opinion?

Seems like no? haha. To his credit, he admits he is not an expert and asks us to tell him why he is wrong. Unfortunately, when I read the comments, it seems like none of his blog readers are experts on the subject, either. So, maybe not "Monday Morning Quarterbacking," but certainly Armchair Quarterbacking.