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US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

themoneyillusion.com

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Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, there are two interstate pacts doing just that, coordinating their covid-19 response because they think the federal government is useless. There's the Western States Pact (CA, OR, WA, NV, CO), and NY just announced an eastern states consortium (NY, NJ, MA, CT, PA, RI, DE). Add to the fact that several states have had to take drastic measures like calling in their national guard to protect their own PPE ship…

This is how things are supposed to work. The federal government is give very specific enumerated powers per the constitution. The founder are would be appalled by the size and scope of the federal government. One thing they did not account for was lack of loyalty people have towards their own state.

States are supposed to be using national guards to protect things they buy from seizure by the federal government?

Can you explain why you believe that?

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#92
post #14

> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…

That 90% number seems really hard to believe. Additionally, from the referenced article: > There is no published model disclosing how these numbers were arrived at, nor are we able to validate a primary source for this claim. Testimony given by the Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission, while expressing similar concerns, gave no estimate of the deaths that would accrue from a prolonged nationwide grid collapse…

That 90% number seems really hard to believe.

Not to me. The real number could be even higher, at least for the USA population.

Without electricity, here are just a few things that come to mind:

1) no water to your house. Have fun drinking out of the nearest river. There won't be a hospital you can go to when you get cholera or dysentery or heavy metal poisoning.

2) have fun using a chain saw (you do have one?) to chop down nearby trees so you can cook your food. How many cans of spam do you have right now in your pantry?

3) One tank of gasoline. The one in your car. That's it. Gas stations can't pump out of their tanks. It wouldn't be hard to get the 10,000 or 20,000 gallons out of their storage tanks by portable pumps. It's a day or two worth of gas. Many stations get daily gas deliveries, they don't have much inventory around.

4) No electricity means refineries can't operate. No diesel for trucks to deliver the gasoline that refineries can't produce. How many refineries can operate for long, if at all, without external electricity?

5) A lot of oil and gasoline moves by pipelines. These need significant energy for pumping along the way. No electricity, no pipelines.

6) No food being shipped from farms. No energy for factories to process it, e.g. refine grain and slaughter cattle.

7) How long can diesel-electric trains run with the diesel they have on hand? A few weeks? Of course, subways and overhead-electric trains would be totally non-functional.

8) Have fun in urban areas like NYC. I can't imagine what a place like that would be after a week or two without water or power and without working sewage.

I'll just stop right there. I could probably come up with another 100 things without really trying.

On the bright side, who will be OK:

1) A lot of the third world. People whose daily existence depends on subsistence farming can survive for years. Many of them don't have electricity right now.

2) Some farmers in the USA. They probably have hand-pumped wells (a relic from bygone days) and plenty of food on hand.

3) Some groups like the Mormons. They (at least on paper) prepare for those kinds of things.

4) People like the Amish. They would probably do OK.

5) Survivalists in general. They have stocked up on food, and they have guns. They will be happy to shoot you dead if you come to them to take their food. And if they run out of food they will be happy to go looking for you and shoot you dead and take your food.

Just 150 years ago none of this would have been an issue. We didn't have electricity and we had much lower population density.

But now, if we lose electricity nationwide for an extended period of time, we are way beyond fucked. We're mostly dead.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#93
post #41
post #22

How much should we worry about this? http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk... was prepared by Lloyds of London after the 2012 detection of a large solar flare by a satellite in interplanetary space. (That one missed the Earth.) Their estimate was $600 billion - $2 trillion dollars of damage from an event that happens roughly once ever 150 years on average. Therefore the amortized cost of this r…

"How much should we worry about this?" Risk assessment. Hands up who anticipated SARS-CoVid-2 -> covid-19? ... OK who mitigated it with a fortuitous insurance policy? ... OK who simply happened to have enough cash in the bank by accident? Now look at the grid. Any grid.

Somewhat amazingly the US government anticipated a COVID-19 type pandemic, and even prepared for it.

Unfortunately a number of different failures of government resulted in that preparation being completely squandered. Leaving the US completely unprepared when it actually happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/opinion/ventilators-coron...

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#94
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple world governments anticipated a novel respiratory virus. Especially post the first SARS. For whatever reason, the US managed to take the idea seriously for decades and then not really be prepared once it actually happened.

Some states like CA were prepared, but the federal government can’t leave these things for states to fend for themselves. At some point somebody somewhere will try to save a few million to make a budget match. Federal government burned 10 times that amount, probably the same day, on military [1] https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-27/coronavi...

> Some states like CA were prepared

CA has a stockpile that was allowed to deteoriate due to budget cuts. So the initial impression was that we weren't prepared, but then we reassessed the situation and gave away at least 500 ventilators to other states as we felt more confident.

Luckily, Bay Area and LA residents travel to China a lot, so we already had substantial herd immunity by February 1.

You can see that in the Santa Clara dashboard, which never showed an emergency situation:

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#ho...

Not the "sky is falling" narrative that HN and the press keep trumpeting, is it?

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be a good investment for anyone to stockpile some of these things, assuming you can sell them for 100x what you paid when The Event happens. Which, if my made up math is correct, means several entities probably already have done so.

assuming you can sell them for 100x what you paid That would be a dangerous assumption. Price is a good method of discriminating between who wants something and who needs something. But just try and raise prices during a pandemic and there will be 1) laws and 2) calls of "price gouging". If The Event really happened I bet that any transformers would be taken by the state/feds within 24 hours. And such an action would…

Never has there been a better time to find evidence on this particular debate...

Here's a relevant search of Google News: https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&biw=1265&...

Choice headlines include:

PPE suppliers accused of 'blatant profiteering' as prices inflated by up to 825 per cent.

Cost of PPE soars due to price gouging, surge in demand ...

Protective equipment costs increase over 1000% amid ...

There are indeed some headlines of investigations regarding price gouging in such matters. But it appears that high prices are being paid. And with lots of outrageous stories of millions being paid and the product never showing up, I'd feel relatively safe charging some sane multiplier as long as the product actually exists.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#96
post #49
post #10

Maybe someone who knows a bunch about this stuff can enlighten me. I was kind of under the impression that a large solar flare would damage _all sorts_ of electronic equipment, by inducing currents wires all over the place. - If we had extra transformers on hand, how would you protect them from also being damaged? - If a solar flare is powerful enough to damage these transformers, would it also have damaged a large p…

A bit more self-centered, is there a way to protect consumer devices from something this? I'm primarily thinking external hard drives with pictures/video we wouldn't want to lose. Maybe a faraday-cage-box of some sort we could buy to just store a spare external in?

Your external hard drive that's disconnected from anything else should be OK. If there's a solar storm strong enough to fry that, you will have far far greater problems. Like whether you live or die. Caring about pictures and videos will be way way down on your list or priorities.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#97
post #37
post #7

> I’d like to ask you guys whether we are prepared for other black swans. Let’s start with a collapse of the electrical system due to solar flares or electromagnetic pulse attacks. A Black Swan is a "high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare event that is beyond the realm of normal expectations". But we know that the Carrington Event happened in 1859, and that it's only a matter of time before a big solar flare will af…

Events like the Carrington & Covid seem to fit: high profile, hard to predict and rare. IMO, both qualify as Black swan. At some point, you have to pick a threshold on the probabilities involved... These events are likely independent & identically distributed (i.e. hard to predict for any year), and I'd call sub-1% annual chance pretty rare. But I'm receptive to a different threshold... But you can't just say "Black…

I think they are both categorically grey swans. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grey-swan.asp COVID-19 especially because of the previous impact of Spanish Flu.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#98
post #78
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's not because they're struggling against the federal government Actually, it is: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/495519-maryland-gov... “The National Guard and the State Police are both guarding these tests at an undisclosed location [because] the federal government seems to be interrupting supplies that are being sent elsewhere in the nation, and so I wanted to make sure that we received what we ordere…

Do you think there is even a chance that a prominent Democrat governor in a prominently Democrat state might be exaggerating for the sake of making the other party look bad? I mean I can't help but think back to the Puerto Rico days when the Democrats were complaining about a complete lack of aid, meanwhile there were warehouses filled with aid and photos of aid already on site.

Of course there's a chance. It's possible that Trump is correct and there is a vast conspiracy to make him look bad when in fact he is exactly what he says he is: a very stable genius who is doing a great job.

There's also a chance that the earth is flat. I'll give comparable odds for both.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#99
This article has an unexpected resonance for me after several weeks of pandemic lockdown. Just three months ago I would have laughed it off. Now I am increasingly pissed off.

In the US, but I see reflection of this in Europe as well, has allowed irresponsible puerile imbeciles to be elected. These people play games with wealth and power, with no regard to the lives and well-being of the society that pays for it. I did not mention any party, that perennial misdirection to their collective heist. Also don't fall for the other smoke screen of small vs. big government. I demand at least a competent government.

For politicians truth is whatever you make people believe it to be.

Meanwhile engineers and scientists struggle daily to find the hard facts of the world to painstakingly build or discover something that improves lives. We should be disgusted and revolted at who is leading us right now. We should drive these fools out office and strip them of any respect.

If we don't, there will be no one competent left in position to rebuild from this, or the next, catastrophe that "nobody" could have expected. Or maybe there will be some states or localities that can get their act together, and the rest will be a wasteland of warring cultural and racial tribes.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#100

This article has an unexpected resonance for me after several weeks of pandemic lockdown. Just three months ago I would have laughed it off. Now I am increasingly pissed off. In the US, but I see reflection of this in Europe as well, has allowed irresponsible puerile imbeciles to be elected. These people play games with wealth and power, with no regard to the lives and well-being of the society that pays for it. I di…

There's an old saying that people deserve their rulers.
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