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US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

themoneyillusion.com

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Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#81
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty interesting that most countries in Europe are unitary states while most countries in the Americas are federal states. Maybe due to the centuries of warfare in Europe the states that survived were unitary states that could better handle external threats. Or maybe it's a holdover from a tradition of monarchy that the Americas never had. Interestingly, Germany is also a federal state. Yet we never seem to he…

I always thought that the post-WWII German government is federal because it was designed mainly by the US government, which is federal.

Well, Germany when it first emerged as a nation state as Imperial Germany in 1871 did so as a federal state. Quite different from the UK or France. Even Italy, which emerged as a nation state in 1861, did so as a unitary kingdom. Germany's federal form of government seems to go against the trend in Europe.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#82
post #22

How much should we worry about this? http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk... was prepared by Lloyds of London after the 2012 detection of a large solar flare by a satellite in interplanetary space. (That one missed the Earth.) Their estimate was $600 billion - $2 trillion dollars of damage from an event that happens roughly once ever 150 years on average. Therefore the amortized cost of this r…

It might be a good investment for anyone to stockpile some of these things, assuming you can sell them for 100x what you paid when The Event happens. Which, if my made up math is correct, means several entities probably already have done so.

assuming you can sell them for 100x what you paid

That would be a dangerous assumption.

Price is a good method of discriminating between who wants something and who needs something. But just try and raise prices during a pandemic and there will be 1) laws and 2) calls of "price gouging".

If The Event really happened I bet that any transformers would be taken by the state/feds within 24 hours. And such an action would have the support of 99% of the populace.

Of course they would pay you. But it would be at 1x your cost, not a nickel higher.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#83
post #10

Maybe someone who knows a bunch about this stuff can enlighten me. I was kind of under the impression that a large solar flare would damage _all sorts_ of electronic equipment, by inducing currents wires all over the place. - If we had extra transformers on hand, how would you protect them from also being damaged? - If a solar flare is powerful enough to damage these transformers, would it also have damaged a large p…

Transformers are usually housed in metal boxes. Any wires inside metal sheeting of whatever geometry would be protected because any current induced would be induced in the metal container which dissipates the power of the pulse. To learn more read about Faraday cages.

True, a transformer sitting in the middle of a warehouse is pretty safe. Unfortunately most of them actually in use have these huge current-carrying electrical wires running right that "faraday cage"...

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#84
post #58

I don't think it's true that the US is unprepared. Most major grids have documented procedure to do a blackstart. Which would be painful as hell but hardly 90% of population dies level painful. Author seems to be assuming more widespread damage I guess. In which case a handful of HV transformers aren't like to be the biggest headache. I'd imagine there is a hell of a lot more sensitive equipment out there than HV tra…

This article is underestimating also how creative can people can become under stressful situations.

For example, converting car engines as power generators, fixing these High voltage transformers, etc.

People adapt, they will build power generators based on whatever they find, industries will shift to make photovoltaic panels and electric production will become local, etc.

Yes it's 90% of people dying if there is no electricity and everybody stays home waiting to die.

1 billion people in the world live without electricity.

The solar flares are a minor risk compared to the main actual risk (war or sabotage), if there is a war, no matter how many High voltage transformers you have in stock, they are going to be destroyed.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#85
post #25

Being "prepared for black swans" is a bad idea. Of course, you want your system as a whole to be as antifragile as possible, but one should never prepare for black swans, but rather buy insurance (so to speak): hedge, diversify, minimize impact. For example, we can imagine a world where some other pandemic is being spread. One that, instead of attacking the lungs, attacks the kidneys. All of a sudden we'd need dialys…

It is worth worrying about "AI run amok" with the help of humans with a profit motive, or some other motive.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty interesting that most countries in Europe are unitary states while most countries in the Americas are federal states. Maybe due to the centuries of warfare in Europe the states that survived were unitary states that could better handle external threats. Or maybe it's a holdover from a tradition of monarchy that the Americas never had. Interestingly, Germany is also a federal state. Yet we never seem to he…

> most countries in the Americas are federal states This ain't true¹. Most of the landmass of the Americas is covered by federated states, sure, but the vast majority of states are unitary. The more relevant factor is the size of the state's territory. With a few exceptions (like China), most big countries are federated, and most small countries are unitary. ---- ¹: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thum…

Good point, I was using that map when I made my observation and overlooked the cluster of smaller countries in the Andes. My bad.

After doing some back of the envelope calculations, about 17% of the countries in the Americas are federated and 16% in Europe, so it's actually pretty similar. But countries in the Americas have a much bigger size disparity than in Europe which really makes the federated areas stand out.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "normal". This is the nature of the US system of competitive federalism. States only coordinate with the federal government when either (a) it's politically expedient, because the ruling party in the same for both at that time, or (b) the federal government forces this issue, at which time lawsuits en…

It's pretty interesting that most countries in Europe are unitary states while most countries in the Americas are federal states. Maybe due to the centuries of warfare in Europe the states that survived were unitary states that could better handle external threats. Or maybe it's a holdover from a tradition of monarchy that the Americas never had. Interestingly, Germany is also a federal state. Yet we never seem to he…

> Yet we never seem to hear...

For reference, do you hear about any internal German politics?

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#88
post #14

> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…

That 90% number seems really hard to believe. Additionally, from the referenced article: > There is no published model disclosing how these numbers were arrived at, nor are we able to validate a primary source for this claim. Testimony given by the Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission, while expressing similar concerns, gave no estimate of the deaths that would accrue from a prolonged nationwide grid collapse…

> That 90% number seems really hard to believe

As context, I spent three years driving right around Africa, and before that two years driving from Alaska to Argentina. I've seen my fair share of collapsing infrastructure (Congo... Mali... Sudan, etc.) and what happens in just a few days without electricity.

In less developed countries the impacts are actually much less than they will be in our developed countries, because the people there are used to things failing, and their lives go on regardless. i.e. many people have beasts of burden to carry loads and farm, they have bicycles or walk to get around and they grow their own food.

For us, it won't be so easy.

- Very quickly all the perishables in the stores go bad, and food shortages become very real very fast.

- ATMs don't work - therefore no cash for anyone.

- Gas and diesel are very hard to get out of underground tanks without electricity (yes, you can hand pump it or use a generator... but how many of those are sitting around ready to go?)

- Communications go down - no cell phones, no internet, no radio, no TV. It's extremely hard to get accurate information in that scenario.

- Soon everyone is just focused on survival, so many other basics fall by the wayside. Garbage collection. Sewage, drinking water, medical supplies and much more all stop working.

- In places with low population density and where people have some "homesteading" skills this might not be so bad - they can just shoot a cow once every few weeks or whatever. In downtown LA, NYC and Chicago, it's extremely bad.

In just a few weeks you have mass hysteria, and things go downhill fast. Just look at the scenes in the big box stores when COVID-19 hit of people getting violent and stockpiling toilet paper. Now imagine how desperate everyone would be if the power was out, and in all likelihood will be out for months.

Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

#90
post #78
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's not because they're struggling against the federal government Actually, it is: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/495519-maryland-gov... “The National Guard and the State Police are both guarding these tests at an undisclosed location [because] the federal government seems to be interrupting supplies that are being sent elsewhere in the nation, and so I wanted to make sure that we received what we ordere…

Do you think there is even a chance that a prominent Democrat governor in a prominently Democrat state might be exaggerating for the sake of making the other party look bad? I mean I can't help but think back to the Puerto Rico days when the Democrats were complaining about a complete lack of aid, meanwhile there were warehouses filled with aid and photos of aid already on site.

States are reacting to confiscations which have already happened. See Massachusetts' first order of medical supplies of China.

Second order was flow in on a private jet protected by the Massachusetts National Guard.

No one knows what happens to the supplies after seizure. There are reports that some get resold by private Trump-affiliated companies. Government claims to be redistributing them to those most in need. There are no audit trails. It's a mess.

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