141–150 of 183 posts
So, just like with different fruits, you can't compete easily when boiled to a single facet. Almost like comparing the color of two fruits, without acknowledging the wide variety in color about the fruits.
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I'm not sure if you're being wilfully ignorant at this point. There are 3.3 million confirmed cases world wide, in a population of 7.8 billion. Say they've missed 90% of cases, and we're actually at like 100 million cases, that's still only 1% of the world that has it. Massive regions like India, Africa don't have it.
Are we going to see 9-40 times more deaths this season from those regions?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The shutdown wouldn't happen if the coronavirus wasn't spreading. It's the indirect cause, remove it and the hospitals aren't shut down.
you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.
Closing the beaches is frankly idiotic, but postponing elective surgery isn't. It's not wise to go in for a breast enlargement when an epidemic is on the move. With an appendicitis, on the other hand, you don't have a choice.
Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?
The first year you see an airborne transmissible disease is likely to be the worst regardless of the disease. The big problem I see is that we're comparing the common flu in its herd immunity steady state to the coronavirus in its first year.
Once coronavirus settles into its steady state, we will be able to compare it to the flu, apples to apples.
That being said, assuming the flu and coronavirus at steady state is approximately comparable, would it justified to react to the flu in its first year the same way we're reacting to the coronavirus in its first year? If we know there will be a modest spike in the first year that mostly claims the infirm and becoming endemic is unavoidable, is it worth doing the damage we're doing to the economy.
That this is going to become endemic and likely reach steady state in a year or two (possibly longer depending on how long we retard reaching that point with lockdowns varying from geography to geography) is at this point a foregone conclusion because not every country has the natural borders of New Zealand and can completely kill this off. It will bounce back and forth between the northern and southern hemisphere indefinitely at this point until herd immunity.
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One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care. For example, my dad has congestive heart failure and sees his doctor once a month and gets an EKG every time. I've been in appointments and the majority of the discussion centers around changes in his EKGs from the previous months. Rig…
> One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care. I wouldn't personally know where to start on getting the data, but you can likely tease this out by evaluating populations with already limited access to healthcare - uninsured, low-income folks with $13k deductibles, etc. Have you c…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.
Why are we talking about closed beaches? We were talking about people with symptoms of appendicitis who choose to stay away from the hospital that is very much open for such cases. Closing the beaches is frankly idiotic, but postponing elective surgery isn't. It's not wise to go in for a breast enlargement when an epidemic is on the move. With an appendicitis, on the other hand, you don't have a choice.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care. I wouldn't personally know where to start on getting the data, but you can likely tease this out by evaluating populations with already limited access to healthcare - uninsured, low-income folks with $13k deductibles, etc. Have you c…
I've been looking at the KardiaMobile but the reviews on Amazon look pretty bad. How well does the Apple Watch perform since it's just on a wrist?
I do know the single-lead EKG has some limitations, but they may not be relevant to your dad's particular scenario. Worth a conversation with the doctor, I suspect.
Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?
It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…
For instance the UK is doing worse than most other countries in Europe but currently there are quite a few years within my life with similar death numbers by this point in the year: http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/
Or look at the graphs for Europe: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
There are some countries where it's higher than the flu seasons in the past 4 years. But there are other countries where it's equal or lower.
Overall weekly mortality in the EuroMOMO reporting countries peaked at approx 2x that of 2016, approx 20k deaths per week more. Given the large populations of these countries this is a tiny change. To put that in perspective 20k people is 0.03% of the British population alone, but you'd also need to include all the other countries to get the real percentage.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…
One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care. For example, my dad has congestive heart failure and sees his doctor once a month and gets an EKG every time. I've been in appointments and the majority of the discussion centers around changes in his EKGs from the previous months. Rig…
Of those that do, a very high proportion are extremely old, i.e. they died with the disease rather than of it.
If you take that into account the lockdown kills far more healthy people than COVID.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…
> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. This is known as mortality displacement or the harvesting effect. We won't actually know whether this was a significant factor until we see future all-cause mortality statistics.