71–80 of 84 posts
When people ask why the stock market isn't in the dumps when it feels like the whole economy is stopped, this is why. Small business isn't on the S&P, and out of the businesses in it, a large percentage of the market value is concentrated on the tech giants who aren't getting nearly as affected by the current crisis as everyone else. If they don't actually benefit from it. Still super impressive results.
The thing is that the restaurant has waiters. Those waiters don’t take a vacation because they can’t afford it so Boeing doesn’t sell planes. Boeing isn’t growing so they lay off engineers who now don’t upgrade their iPhones. And Apple will suffer, just awhile from now.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But ads are supposed to be paid back by customers buying real stuff. And if they won't buy real stuff because of crisis, it just means that ads budgets will be cut soon.
I wonder what fraction of consumption people who’ve been lost their income during the crisis is. If 20% of the workforce is laid off, does that mean consumption will go down 20%? Is the salary/spending power of the group who were laid off representative of the entire workforce? Or does it skew in a particular direction. I ask because one explanation of the disconnect is that consumer spending in general hasn’t actual…
You can't spend much when most shops are closed and visiting the ones that are open comes with quite a risk.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The thing is that the restaurant has waiters. Those waiters don’t take a vacation because they can’t afford it so Boeing doesn’t sell planes. Boeing isn’t growing so they lay off engineers who now don’t upgrade their iPhones. And Apple will suffer, just awhile from now.
On the other hand a lot of people think we are going to start buying like there is no tomorrow when the immediate crisis is over.
Surprised why so many people are surprised. Digital services and platforms are booming in this current climate. We have no choice but to be consuming content. App downloads (30% thank you very much), Apple TV+ ($10 a month thank you very much), Apple Music...the list goes on. That list, apart from TV+ specials, is just revenue on the backs of other work. Others taking advantage of lockdown to product more content. Wh…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apple is doing... OK. They are still down 13% from their highs. Boeing is trashed and announced layoffs. GM is as well and are suspending their dividend, Ford isn't exactly happy either, and plenty of other S&P giants. Disney has taken a huge hit due to sports/ ESPN revenue, theme parks, and cruise lines. Small businesses aren't on the S&P 500, but unemployed people and small businesses all buy from companies in the…
> The stock market hasn't quite priced in damage yet. Quite the claim. Anyone with confidence in this theory should take a short position now and pick up their million bucks after the market “prices in the damage.”
The big problem is unless your timing is perfect, you have to be able to suck up huge losses until things fall apart. To make your million bucks, you might have $100,000 in puts which you watch turn into $10,000 over 6 months only to have the market correct after you cover your position.
Bill Ackman did set up a hedge and pocketed a couple billion betting the market was wrong about the risk the virus presented.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/03/25/billiona...
I’m not Bill Ackman. I doubt you are either. If you’re lucky, you spot these trends enough where you avoid getting soaked on downturns. I’ve been pretty good at that last bit.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apple is doing... OK. They are still down 13% from their highs. Boeing is trashed and announced layoffs. GM is as well and are suspending their dividend, Ford isn't exactly happy either, and plenty of other S&P giants. Disney has taken a huge hit due to sports/ ESPN revenue, theme parks, and cruise lines. Small businesses aren't on the S&P 500, but unemployed people and small businesses all buy from companies in the…
Apple, Boeing, GM, and Disney are ranked 2, 69, 169, and 20, respectively in an index of 500. My only point here is this is an arbitrarily picked set of companies and it should be put into context with surrounding S&P500 data and analytics.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apple TV+, Apple Music, and Netflix revenues have nothing to do with ads. EDIT: parent comment was significantly changed after I replied to it. Initially, it was saying that "Apple TV+, Apple Music, Netflix, and Microsoft" were having a tough time and that their ad-serving customers will likely have to cut their ad spending.
I didn't edit my comment, I was addressing my parent's comment (but didn't quote) > Ad supported services are booming, the Facebooks, Googles, because we’re consuming more ads.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I didn't edit my comment, I was addressing my parent's comment (but didn't quote) > Ad supported services are booming, the Facebooks, Googles, because we’re consuming more ads.
Your comment was changed some time after I replied to it (I checked about an hour or two after, so I don't know the exact time it was changed). I think most people would consider it as being "edited".
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The stock market hasn't quite priced in damage yet. Quite the claim. Anyone with confidence in this theory should take a short position now and pick up their million bucks after the market “prices in the damage.”
That's assuming you can time it right. I've been holding puts for ~2 months, and I went from very right to very wrong very quickly. I also fully anticipate to be very right again as soon as the fed stops pumping trillions of dollars into companies that were ill prepared for risk.
I mean, sure I can predict that the market go down and sure, sometime between now and the heat death of the universe the market will go down. Same about the market going up. But these kind of predictions are meaningless.