> The stock market hasn't quite priced in damage yet. Quite the claim. Anyone with confidence in this theory should take a short position now and pick up their million bucks after the market “prices in the damage.”
That's assuming you can time it right. I've been holding puts for ~2 months, and I went from very right to very wrong very quickly. I also fully anticipate to be very right again as soon as the fed stops pumping trillions of dollars into companies that were ill prepared for risk.
> I also fully anticipate to be very right again as soon as the fed stops pumping trillions of dollars into companies that were ill prepared for risk.
When people ask why the stock market isn't in the dumps when it feels like the whole economy is stopped, this is why. Small business isn't on the S&P, and out of the businesses in it, a large percentage of the market value is concentrated on the tech giants who aren't getting nearly as affected by the current crisis as everyone else. If they don't actually benefit from it. Still super impressive results.
The thing is that the restaurant has waiters. Those waiters don’t take a vacation because they can’t afford it so Boeing doesn’t sell planes. Boeing isn’t growing so they lay off engineers who now don’t upgrade their iPhones. And Apple will suffer, just awhile from now.
> The stock market hasn't quite priced in damage yet. Quite the claim. Anyone with confidence in this theory should take a short position now and pick up their million bucks after the market “prices in the damage.”
That's assuming you can time it right. I've been holding puts for ~2 months, and I went from very right to very wrong very quickly. I also fully anticipate to be very right again as soon as the fed stops pumping trillions of dollars into companies that were ill prepared for risk.
And why will the Fed stop spending my great-grandchildren’s money to prop up the stock market? I don’t see a reason.
Did they have a shortage of products to sell? I think the impact of not selling in China may have been more important than the impact of not producing in China last quarter. And in any case the second quarter will probably be worse.
> Did they have a shortage of products to sell? Very much so. I ordered a new watch and it took three weeks to arrive, when usually they are just a few days. My friend who works at Apple said in March people weren't getting laptops when they joined the company because they didn't have any to give, as all the new ones were being sent to customers.
I’ve just moved within Apple, and requisitioned a top-of-the-line MBP (my current one is from 2014, I used to use a Mac Pro in my old position). Even with a custom build to top spec, and with it being internal (ie: not customer), it was still shipped in 2 days and arrives tomorrow.
China is one of Apple's largest markets, though, and they were dealing with Coronavirus for the entire quarter.
Wuhan was basically shut down for the whole quarter, but the rest of China was impacted for only a few weeks though. The shutdown started on Jan. 23 and things were already reopening by mid-February, and mostly back to normal in March. https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/13/21136648/apple-beijing-st... https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21177964/apple-stores-chi...
Easing lockdowns != resumption of normal economic activity.
> Did they have a shortage of products to sell? Very much so. I ordered a new watch and it took three weeks to arrive, when usually they are just a few days. My friend who works at Apple said in March people weren't getting laptops when they joined the company because they didn't have any to give, as all the new ones were being sent to customers.
I’ve just moved within Apple, and requisitioned a top-of-the-line MBP (my current one is from 2014, I used to use a Mac Pro in my old position). Even with a custom build to top spec, and with it being internal (ie: not customer), it was still shipped in 2 days and arrives tomorrow.
They’ve caught up now. The factories in China have been open for weeks.
When people ask why the stock market isn't in the dumps when it feels like the whole economy is stopped, this is why. Small business isn't on the S&P, and out of the businesses in it, a large percentage of the market value is concentrated on the tech giants who aren't getting nearly as affected by the current crisis as everyone else. If they don't actually benefit from it. Still super impressive results.
Apple is doing... OK. They are still down 13% from their highs. Boeing is trashed and announced layoffs. GM is as well and are suspending their dividend, Ford isn't exactly happy either, and plenty of other S&P giants. Disney has taken a huge hit due to sports/ ESPN revenue, theme parks, and cruise lines. Small businesses aren't on the S&P 500, but unemployed people and small businesses all buy from companies in the…
Apple, Boeing, GM, and Disney are ranked 2, 69, 169, and 20, respectively in an index of 500.
My only point here is this is an arbitrarily picked set of companies and it should be put into context with surrounding S&P500 data and analytics.
Apple is doing... OK. They are still down 13% from their highs. Boeing is trashed and announced layoffs. GM is as well and are suspending their dividend, Ford isn't exactly happy either, and plenty of other S&P giants. Disney has taken a huge hit due to sports/ ESPN revenue, theme parks, and cruise lines. Small businesses aren't on the S&P 500, but unemployed people and small businesses all buy from companies in the…
> The stock market hasn't quite priced in damage yet. Quite the claim. Anyone with confidence in this theory should take a short position now and pick up their million bucks after the market “prices in the damage.”
Unfortunately, unlike simply buying stock a short position exposes the trader to unlimited downside.
You can be completely right about what's going to happen but a miss in timing could ruin you.
If you have the free TV+ you should watch. Many of the shows have been really good in my opinion. Haven't watched one of the shows (besides See) that I didn't think were pretty well done.
Could you throw out some names you liked? I tried See thinking it would be really good. I was unfortunately really disappointed and stopped watching after a little over halfway through the season. It diminished my faith in the platform because it was so heavily marketed. Your comment makes me willing to give it another shot before my year is up.
See, Truth Be Told, and Amazing Stories seem to be widely panned, and I haven't liked them either though I have yet to finish them. For All Mankind would probably resonate most with the HN community. I liked The Morning Show much more than I expected to, and it was a nuanced depiction of workplace power dynamics along with the behind the scenes of those types of shows. Little America is outstanding, the immigrant stories are authentic and multi-layered without being political. Servant is quite good, it's unsettling throughout and you have to pay close attention. Mythic Quest I found to be funny and entertaining, and people who work in game development say it points to underlying truths. People who I know personally are split on it, maybe if you like the Always Sunny in Philadelphia style then you'll like it more. Episode 5 of Mythic Quest comes out of left field and is in my opinion the single best episode on Apple TV+.