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Tesla Q1 2020 Update

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#361

Post by xkjkls »

tejohnso wrote: post #26
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

> can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life With 8 billion in cash, and 3-4 billion per year burn rate, that's a two year buffer assuming no improvement. That doesn't seem like the worst cash crunch of their long life. What am I missing?

1. Not all of that cash is accessible; much of it is tied up in other countries like China, so with certain bills they won't be able to access it.

2. Tesla still has a large number of debt payments to make in that time period

3. Cash at the end of quarter is not equivalent to cash during the quarter. Tesla generally optimizes its financials to display a high number for cash at the end of the quarter. If you look at the interest they are getting on savings throughout the quarter, you'll see that the average cash they have in the bank throughout the total quarter is much less than stated value.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#362

Post by xkjkls »

nickik wrote: post #314
kenhwang wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla relies on high volume to make money; the other automakers are pricing EVs based more on margin. An economic slow down hurts volume much more than it hurts margins. Tesla also relies heavily on first-mover advantage to grow. With the virus stalling everything, all the more cash rich automakers get time to catch up on R&D, while Tesla is stalled from being unable to physically expand. Tesla also becomes more cash…

> Tesla relies on high volume to make money; the other automakers are pricing EVs based more on margin. This is just wrong. Tesla relies on margin. The other automakers don't make money with their EVs for the most part. They make money with their ICE vehicles. > all the more cash rich automakers get time to catch up on R&D Actually all the other automakers are stripping their R&D programs and dropping new EV vehicles…

Tesla was stripping its R&D even before this pandemic though. They've cut R&D YoY from 2018 to 2019 which is basically unthinkable as a growth company.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#363

Post by xkjkls »

blizkreeg wrote: post #98
xur17 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus, the price of gas has gone down significantly, hurting one of the benefits of electric cars.

I don't believe the Tesla crowd bought theirs to save on gas anyway, so not sure if this is true.

It's always going to be a factor. Total cost of ownership is one of the biggest factors in car sales.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#364

Post by xkjkls »

caf wrote: post #253
_ea1k wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always felt like the base Model 3 and base BMW 3 series were very comparable. Add in a couple of thousand, and the 3 looks like a bargain. That becomes a harder sell when the Model 3 is actually more expensive to operate, as it is in some places now. Its not that they are buying to save money vs the economical choices, but it does make a difference relative to their comps (RWD & AWD sport sedans).

Do customers really believe the current exceptionally low oil prices are going to be a permanent feature?

Oil futures are under $40 all the way through the end of 2022: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/clz22

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#365

Post by xkjkls »

Gwypaas wrote: post #152
herdodoodo wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden also has numerous tax breaks for buying electric vehicles, and does not properly tax the externalities of producing electric cars (running/refueling EVs, however, has very minimal negative externalities)

True, haven't looked at the data in some time but the breakeven point in regards to LCA comes fairly early though when comparing against ICE cars.

It depends greatly on the ICE car and driving assumptions. For someone who generally only makes short trips, a plugin hybrid is going to be a more environmentally friendly choice long term, given the significant amount of emissions needed to create the batteries for large range BEVs.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#366

Post by xkjkls »

cco wrote: post #210
save_ferris wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He might be more concerned about the sales prospects instead of operational expenses. Automakers are getting hit really hard by this pandemic, and they need a healthy economy to sell cars. Many economic forecasts are saying that a full recovery is 2-4 years away, although there are many different opinions.

I'm honestly surprised that Elon hasn't made some sort of tweet intimating that "Bioweapon Defense Mode" on Teslas may filter out covid-19.

He basically voiced this on the conference call, talking about how the Model S has HEPA filters and should filter out all COVID-19. Which was probably one of the more sane things he said on that conference call.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#367

Post by xkjkls »

jlbnjmn wrote: post #197
Scipio_Afri wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil prices don't help the EV argument. However the main issue is that they have to deal with their products being priced high compared to the rest of the industry at a time when wages are likely to fall.

The EV argument != the Tesla argument.

Hasn't the Tesla argument always been that EVs are going to take over the entire auto industry? I don't see any version of Tesla's success without EV success.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#368

Post by xkjkls »

ashtonkem wrote: post #308
pcurve wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought 2014 3 HB GT manual when it first came out. Even though I used to be a huge car guy, I just don't care to own nicer car. Maybe it's because I'm 40 and have owned nicer cars before. Cars are so expensive these days, but a $25k compact car is so nice, why pay another $20k for incrementally nicer car? Keep your Mazda 3 for 10 years. It's a good car.

I’d actually prefer to not own a car at all. Since I work from home now, and walked to work before, I’d rather just not have one. But I agree, the marginal value of nicer cars is questionable at best. The benefit of a Model 3 was mostly going to be tax rebates and access to the car pool lane for my wife in crowded Los Angeles.

It seems pretty impossible to go completely carless in Los Angeles. In somewhere like New York/Chicago/DC you could do it, but LA seems way to spread out to not have a car.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#369

Post by xkjkls »

cloudwalking wrote: post #32
tejohnso wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life With 8 billion in cash, and 3-4 billion per year burn rate, that's a two year buffer assuming no improvement. That doesn't seem like the worst cash crunch of their long life. What am I missing?

Increasing capex for new products.

Plus there CapEx hasn't even met depreciation for years, indicating that they have been underinvesting in repairs and retooling.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#370

Post by xkjkls »

xiphias2 wrote: post #20
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

- Will Elon stop with tweets that hurt Tesla? Appoint a CEO, or COO to run things to take pressure of Elon? I have read this from so many people for the last 5 years all the time. Sure, the tweets show that Elon wants faster growth, and frustrated, and I didn't like that tweet either, but if you want a conservative CEO, buy IBM or Oracle stocks, please leave Tesla alone.

They idea that you can't have an aggressive CEO who doesn't tweet dangerously irresponsible things about a pandemic, call an international hero a pedophile, or fake the largest corporate buyout in history doesn't seem to hold water with me.
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