Tesla Q1 2020 Update • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#201

Post by clouddrover » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 12:55 AM UTC

tigershark wrote: post #163

kenhwang wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla relies on high volume to make money; the other automakers are pricing EVs based more on margin. An economic slow down hurts volume much more than it hurts margins. Tesla also relies heavily on first-mover advantage to grow. With the virus stalling everything, all the more cash rich automakers get time to catch up on R&D, while Tesla is stalled from being unable to physically expand. Tesla also becomes more cash…

I don’t really think that any other automaker has a 25.5% margin on their mass produced electric vehicles.

Maybe the Porsche Taycan. The Porsche 911 was the most profitable car in 2019 with a 47% margin:

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/porsche-911-most-prof...

Porsche is Volkswagen's most profitable brand.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#202

Post by grecy » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 12:55 AM UTC

blizkreeg wrote: post #177

grecy wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe not, but if gas had continued to go up in 2020 and 2021, you'd have to think that would help convince move people to shift over to electric.

I've somehow never believed that theory. There are tens of thousands who buy gas guzzlers, at whatever price of gas was/is. If only people were that rational, they'd stop buying them to save our planet. You can tax cigarettes all you want, people are still gonna smoke.

Sure tens of thousands buy gas guzzlers because they can afford it / don't care. But there are also tens of thousands more that don't because they can't afford it.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#203

Post by wonderwonder » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 12:57 AM UTC

mullingitover wrote: post #171

axguscbklp wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk might just be venting on Twitter, as another commenter has suggested, but one way or another these tweets might turn out to benefit him. From what I can tell based on both personal and online interactions, it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different…

> it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different groups Nope, ending the lockdowns is not a popular movement. More than twice as many people believe they don't go far enough as believe they go too far.[1] "Only 12% of Americans say the measures where they li…

With the current disaster that many states have for an unemployment system, dwindling funds and ramping job loss I think that is going to shift. People are actively running out of money, they are waiting in food lines for hours by the hundreds. The federal government has indicated it has no inclination to resolve this. People need money to eat. I think that sentiment is going to change soon. We should have implemented a massive stay at home order across the nation in early March and funded it with a UBI for 2 - 3 months and the situation would have been resolved. Now its too late and people are truly suffering. The only thing that is going to resolve that suffering is income.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#204

Post by _ea1k » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 12:57 AM UTC

megaman821 wrote: post #88

jonny_eh wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people can't handle that Right, we can't handle a billionaire demanding that everyone risk their lives to boost his stock price. And since when are arguments derived from first principles delivered in 3 word all-caps tweets?

You think Elon Musk's motivation is greed? That people going back to work or not will greatly affect his lifestyle? Is there any nuance when it comes to Elon Musk, or only fan-boys and haters?

I feel like a there is a large percentage of the population that doesn't realize just how dire things are getting as a direct result of these lockdowns.

It really is frightening and there are some strong responses, both rational and irrational on many sides.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#205

Post by _ea1k » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 12:58 AM UTC

xiphias2 wrote: post #145

mettamage wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know enough about this (how CEOs ought to behave) and I don't know to what extent Elon Musk cares. But I do know what I'd think in his position: I'd care more about freedom of speech. I believe that I should be capable of saying whatever I want (usual restrictions apply, hate speech etc.). Even if that means that I'm tweeting on a social platform about the share price. Twitter is not a platform where official…

Actually there was a big difference between this tweet (expressing his opinion) and the 420 tweet, which was a statement on a material fact. There exist special laws for CEOs of all public companies, and he should be extremely careful about those statements. The new CFO helps Elon with those though, and Elon just gives really boring statements about the future numbers (as opposed to the products, where he can get mor…

I think those "special laws" harm me as an investor. Corporate speak does not make my job as an investor any easier.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#206

Post by grecy » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:00 AM UTC

vgchh wrote: post #186

Serious question: I am confused as to why do we see so many comments lamenting, what is essentially freedom of speech of EM? I mean, it's not like he is conclusively wrong about "Free America Now" comment. He may be proven wrong over time or even right.

People don't like to allow discussions about things they disagree with anymore. Everything has become so polarized, it's as if simply allowing the conversation to happen risks bringing in new evidence that might prove a person wrong.

I'm not saying I personally think everyone should head back out on the streets, but I think it's important we a least begin to discuss the pros and cons of doing so.

In all of this, I've still never heard a single logical or rational discussion about what the hell are we going to do in the medium-long term. Even if we "flatten the curve" now and go back to "normal" in 3 months, what will happen when cases skyrocket again? same thing all over again?

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#207

Post by Barrin92 » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:01 AM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #83

Touche wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just don't want a batshit crazy person running a company I invest in.

To be fairly honest, lots of extremely competent people hold some batshit insane opinions about a lot of pretty important things. I posit Steve Jobs and his alternative therapy beliefs: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4924574/

The difference being that Steve Jobs wasn't up at 2 am in the morning ranting about taking his company private at 420.

The reason why there's a pretty compelling reason to point out that Steve Jobs was a good leader was because he actually did good things, and the company struggled in his abscence.

What has Elon himself actually done that looks like good management? Put an adult in charge of the company and see if they can't do better.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#208

Post by mullingitover » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:02 AM UTC

wonderwonder wrote: post #203

mullingitover wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different groups Nope, ending the lockdowns is not a popular movement. More than twice as many people believe they don't go far enough as believe they go too far.[1] "Only 12% of Americans say the measures where they li…

With the current disaster that many states have for an unemployment system, dwindling funds and ramping job loss I think that is going to shift. People are actively running out of money, they are waiting in food lines for hours by the hundreds. The federal government has indicated it has no inclination to resolve this. People need money to eat. I think that sentiment is going to change soon. We should have implemente…

Fate is a cruel mistress. Republicans are facing a decision between implementing leftist basic income policies or being decimated at the polls. They're trying to fight it by astroturfing resistance to wildly popular public health measures, but it's a bad look for them to be advocating the thing they smeared universal health care for in 2008: death panels.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#209

Post by Engineer2Throw » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:03 AM UTC

wfbarks wrote: post #189

adventured wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it. He's worth $38.5 billion; $26b of that is in Tesla. He can shave off hundreds of millions of dollars from that any day of the week - if he cared to do so. The compensation package is relatively small compared to his existing wealth already contained in Tesla. Wanting the company to succeed is what most likely motivates him, not the compensation package (which is aligned with his existing interests, even i…

Bonus probably goes straight to spacex

A military contactor? Not sure if you are aware but the money goes from corruption to private individual, not the other way around.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#210

Post by cco » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:04 AM UTC

save_ferris wrote: post #39

tejohnso wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life With 8 billion in cash, and 3-4 billion per year burn rate, that's a two year buffer assuming no improvement. That doesn't seem like the worst cash crunch of their long life. What am I missing?

He might be more concerned about the sales prospects instead of operational expenses. Automakers are getting hit really hard by this pandemic, and they need a healthy economy to sell cars. Many economic forecasts are saying that a full recovery is 2-4 years away, although there are many different opinions.

I'm honestly surprised that Elon hasn't made some sort of tweet intimating that "Bioweapon Defense Mode" on Teslas may filter out covid-19.