U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#811

Post by tekknik » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 3:46 AM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #460

OldHand2018 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'l…

This is such horrid advice. She will have to declare bankruptcy to discharge the auto loan and 18k debt may not be sufficient to guarantee she can. Worse, that 18k will now have fees added to it for the repossession and late payments. The chance of getting the car back through auction are near nil for many reasons, from that auctions do not necessarily take place in the same locale to it can be months before the car…

The worst advice hardly, you’re exaggerating. Your credit will take a hit for 7 years, which is definitely a long time but the worst of it is you will pay more up front in deposits and pay high interest rates from loans. I’ve walked away from more than $18k during the last crisis and here I am today with a great credit score and am looking at buying a house potentially soon (or at least was pre COVID). The worst thing you can do is to continue paying on something you know you’ll lose anyway, causing even more financial problems for yourself.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#812

Post by tekknik » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 3:50 AM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #763

eppp wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gently used at 100k seems like a strong ask. I commute two hours a day and get around ~20k miles a year. The car would be five years old at the point of 100k. Quicker than that and the person that owned it drove the crap out of it. Plastic and trim is squeaking, stains, scratches, etc. I dont personally care about any of that but I expect it to be reflected heavily in the price. Then you look at the asking prices for…

Those SUVs were expensive new as well. If you head over to the new car lot, it's not hard to spend $60k on an SUV, even a domestic one with a Chevy|Ford|Jeep badge. These are the kinds of vehicles that everyone wants to drive (along with trucks) and 72/84 month loans have been common for a while now (even for lightly used cars). So that sets price floor for trade-ins, since people can only roll over so much negative…

Don’t forget leases! Many of the luxury SUVs are leased and traded every 2-3 years, putting further pressure on prices.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#813

Post by tekknik » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 3:52 AM UTC

Tade0 wrote: post #659

eppp wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gently used at 100k seems like a strong ask. I commute two hours a day and get around ~20k miles a year. The car would be five years old at the point of 100k. Quicker than that and the person that owned it drove the crap out of it. Plastic and trim is squeaking, stains, scratches, etc. I dont personally care about any of that but I expect it to be reflected heavily in the price. Then you look at the asking prices for…

It's possible if you're like my friend whose job was to drive all around Europe hauling specialised parts for construction equipment, sometimes doing 2k km in a single day. I think he did 60k km (37.5k miles) during the first year, but you couldn't tell that from the shape the car was in, since he cared for both the exterior and interior. The only thing that showed any visible signs of aging were the windshield wiper…

tbf 37.5k miles really isn’t a lot. in my area in the US it’s common for people to push 25k - 30k a year just on their commute

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#814

Post by hn_throwaway_99 » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 4:25 AM UTC

jkqwzsoo wrote: post #710

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 things: 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently, but skip the part about it still being down about 10% since the start of the year. 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google account for 20% of S&P market cap. Most of those companies have been helped by the pandemic, or at least not hurt nearly as bad as smaller companies. 3. The market…

> 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google account for 20% of S&P market cap. Most of those companies have been helped by the pandemic, or at least not hurt nearly as bad as smaller companies. I thought I'd look up the performance of various indexes for the past month (as of the time I looked them up): * S&P 500: +15.2% * Dow Jones Industrial Average: +…

> So no, I don't think the idea that Apple and Facebook are doing well (thus keeping hte S&P numbers inflated) holds weight.

The easiest, and best, comparison for this is to look at the S&P 500 vs an S&P 500 equal weighted index (where all stocks are weighted equality, instead of weighted based on market cap). Over 3 months (i.e. just before the market peaked) the equal weighted index is down almost 15%, while the market cap weighted index is down just over 10%. This is clear evidence the larger companies are significantly outperforming the smaller ones.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#815

Post by atlantique » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 5:23 AM UTC

valachio wrote: post #729

mdszy wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally killing people for the sake of "the economy" is a disgusting notion to even attempt to defend. The system is entirely broken.

In the US alone, hundreds of thousands of people die a premature death due to obesity. In fact, obesity is so bad in most first world countries, people are calling it an obesity pandemic (sounds familiar). Does that mean the government should force McDonald's to serve healthier foods? And force McDonald's to stop using all the shitty ingredients and chemicals they put in their food? Or maybe the government should reg…

Poor diets are not highly contagious.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#816

Post by gbjw » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 6:10 AM UTC

atlantique wrote: post #815

valachio wrote: post #729

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US alone, hundreds of thousands of people die a premature death due to obesity. In fact, obesity is so bad in most first world countries, people are calling it an obesity pandemic (sounds familiar). Does that mean the government should force McDonald's to serve healthier foods? And force McDonald's to stop using all the shitty ingredients and chemicals they put in their food? Or maybe the government should reg…

Poor diets are not highly contagious.

Maybe not in a traditional sense, but certainly there are strong social pressures to eat similar things to those around you. Advertising can strongly affect your food choices. Smoking is also not contagious in the sense that it doesn’t immediately give you cancer: it takes years, often decades. Yet we’ve decided to outlaw it in many public places.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#817

Post by renewiltord » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 7:57 AM UTC

lisper wrote: post #677

baggy_trough wrote: post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, it is an example. These reports by the University of Illinois at Chicago have more details. The start of the most recent report: "Chicago continues to be the most corrupt city in the country and Illinois remains the third most corrupt state." https://pols.uic.edu/chicago-politics/anti-corruption-report...

Yes, you're right. Sorry, I was reading your comment while waiting in line at the grocery store and I was not focused. But that is one example. You said many large cities have been run exclusively by Democrats for decades and are notoriously corrupt. One is not many. AFAICT Chicago and Illinois are the exception rather than the rule among Democratically controlled cities and states. Also, Democrats don't exhibit prid…

Not to step into your discussion with the other guy but examples are so numerous that I know of three more off the top of my head. The Most Expensive Mile of Subway Track on Earth , Mohammed Nuru's Penthouse, Leland Yee and Shrimp Boy.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#818

Post by vasillevski » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 7:59 AM UTC

at-fates-hands wrote: post #568

vasillevski wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this like it’s a good thing? This is reflective of an economic system that isn’t functioning well. All this points to is the fact that income is highly concentrated in the hands of a few, and that opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed. I’m sure that went right over your head when you proudly decided to trumpet that nugget of information. Alas, I’m sure I’m just shouting into a void of ignoranc…

I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…

> I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic.

You’re correct, you didn’t. You did, however, post it as a response to a statistic that highlighted inequality in stock ownership. That response could only be interpreted as justifying that inequality because the upper class pays the majority of taxes, while the lower effectively contributes nothing. Yet you fail to realize that the lower class suffers a much larger overall tax burden relative to percentage of income.

This is why you were downvoted, but not by me. In fact, this is my first comment on an internet discussion ever. I’m not trying to take away your “internet points”.

> Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea.

You’re entitled to your opinion, but it doesn’t make it true. You suffer from survivorship bias. There’s plenty of sound research that dispels the narrative of abundant economic mobility. Notice I didn’t say there is no opportunity, but limited and unequally distributed.

To your final point, I apologize if I came off as snarky. I am a first generation, ESL immigrant. My life, while relatively comfy by global standards, has been anything but by US standards. I hope you’ll forgive my pointed prose, and realize that being hardworking and ignorant are not mutually exclusive. There are many things I’m ignorant to, and when it’s pointed out, I try not to be personally offended. Instead, I approach it as a learning opportunity.

Ignorance is offensive when it is willful and deliberate.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#819

Post by cylinder » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 8:13 AM UTC

bb123 wrote: post #411

eppp wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The used car market has been inflated for years. 100k+ mile vehicles selling for over half their new price makes no sense to me.

I recently entered the used car market in the US and I was really shocked at how expensive cars are here compared with Europe.

Americans have bought the idea that everything in the US is so cheap, hook line and sinker, and don't question it. As an American living abroad I hear it all the time. Then I actually put up prices and pretty much everything is cheaper but labor where I am. Everything you need - cars, transport, healthcare, education, good quality fresh food - are usually pretty expensive these days in the US. More niche stuff like hobby equipment yes can be cheaper in the US due to market size.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#820

Post by Tistron » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 8:20 AM UTC

_-david-_ wrote: post #512

Tistron wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Scandinavia we've had some sort of pragmatic market socialism, not much central planning but reasonable redistribution in various ways. Seems to work fairly well, although large parts of it has been (and is being) dismantled by the liberals (those are the right here, not the left).

To call it socialism is incorrect. Carl Bildt (former Prime Minister of Sweeden) said "Bernie Sanders was lucky to be able to get to the Soviet Union in 1988 and praise all its stunning socialist achievements before the entire system and empire collapsed under the weight of its own spectacular failures." [0] Lars Løkke Rasmussen (former Prime Minister of Denmark) said "I know that some people in the US associate the…

Yes, both Carl Bildt and Lars Løkke are liberals and part of dismantling/developing our system into less socialist or "social" if you prefer.

We certainly don't have central planning, and if that was inherent in the word socialism I guess Lars Løkke wouldn't have had to say "far from a socialist planned economy". It is far from that. It is also, as I see it, increasingly far from a social(ist) system, but we did use to have more of that, and in my opinion (not alone here) it was better.

I am fairly well educated and have had a good salary when I was working (voluntarily not working right now because I have lots of money and prefer to do other things), but like many others around here I prefer that my money gets spent having a functional society to having more pocket money to buy luxury items.

And I know that from a Liberal/libertarian pov I don't have the right to decide that for others, but from my point of view that kind of exaggerated individualism is dysfunctional and individuals don't exist any more or less than groups. We need both rights and pragmatic optimisation of general wellbeing. Everybody is better off when there is less poverty and misery around.