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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#781

Post by esoterica »

jb775 wrote: post #496
iffybookmark wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't covid-19 the #1 cause of death in NYC right now? And not, like, starvation? Saying the cure is worse than the disease shows a frightening lack of both empathy and objective reasoning. I don't want to construct a strawman, but I worry that what "reopen" people are really saying is "I don't care if X% of the US population dies - as long as I'm not one of them - if it means I can try to go back to normal." And try…

I think it's frightening that people like you are missing the bigger point here: X% of the population was going to die anyways, and these numbers are getting skewed out of proportion. Triggering a major recession will cause more deaths and despair over the long term. Start thinking for yourselves rather than believing everything you hear. Hospitals are now FINANCIALLY INCENTIVIZED to lump as many patients as possible…

> Look at the stats on the sudden drop in historical "Other" column deaths in comparison to the "Covid" column (for this year)...they basically align perfectly.

There is no drop in "other" column deaths. The excess all-cause mortality rate is actually substantially higher than the number of diagnosed Covid deaths [1].

There are certain commenters on various social media sites posting CDC all-cause mortality charts showing a "drop" in recent all-cause deaths, except that's purely an artifact of the reporting lag (deaths take a couple weeks to show up in the stats so if you try to look up the number of deaths that happened within the past 1-2 weeks you will get an undercount). It sounds like you have been duped by one of those people.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#782

Post by drdeadringer »

aphextron wrote: post #145
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

This sounds like 1970s' movies depicting groups of teenage and younger kids roaming the streets throughout the night after all the community centers, arcades, and malls [i.e. any communal source of entertainment] closed. Midnight skateboarding in abandoned lots, drunk 11-year-olds, graffiti, sneaking out the window as a matter of course ... parents having no idea where their children go at night [remember "Do you know where your children are?"? Forgive a "wrong decade" but the point stands] ...

Of course this is all "crazed cinema depicting crazed societal horror", but are we truly expecting a return to such times and activities?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#783

Post by chrisjc »

MattGaiser wrote: post #148
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars Retail like that is very underrepresented in the stock market, so those losses wouldn't be reflected.

Every furniture store around here has been "going out of business" for the last 20 years. At least that's what I've gathered from their "everything must go", "50% off" fluorescent signs.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#784

Post by kyuudou »

eyeundersand wrote: post #78
harryh wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true in the short run, but not in the long run.

"In the long run, we are all dead." ~Keynes

Keynes, to my knowledge, never had children. The future for one's offspring definitely extends one's field of cares to give, in my opinion.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#785

Post by fl0wenol »

parsnips wrote: post #726
standardUser wrote: post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Green New Deal is not a call for an end to market capitalism, nor is it a call for a centrally planned economy. Your point is utterly invalid.

Let's just look at one (expensive) idea proposed in the GND: >Upgrading all existing buildings and building new ones so that they achieve maximum energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability. How is a directive to upgrade all existing buildings, anything but central planning of an entire industry?

That sounds awfully like a nod towards developers and REITs that you'd get property tax breaks and/or credits if you hit LEED certification levels.

What is the problem with that? It's already a thing, just not nationally. You get that pro-jobs angle for contractors, provide a stop-gap when new construction slows servicing existing owners looking to reduce costs.

You're reading the proposals with an ... impractical eye.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#786

Post by TomVDB »

sudosysgen wrote: post #629
TomVDB wrote: post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but ended up compromising with Republicans for some absurd reason as he held both the house and senate My memory is a bit fuzzy on this, but didn't he also have to compromise with the (relatively) right-leaning wing of the Democratic party?

Did Trump have to compromise with the left wing of the Republican Party? Did Biden have to compromise with the left wing of the Democratic Party? No, because of the implicit threat of being primaried, or for the party to be shifted. Which Obama did not even threaten, but all others presidents did (towards the right). He also openly compomised in the name of "bipartisanship" multiple times despite it being uneeded.

The only thing that comes close to a left wing part of the Republican Party is Sue Collins, who is always very sorry and disappointed but eventually toes the party line.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#787

Post by belorn »

romanzul wrote: post #719
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the streets like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. You don’t think that describing poor kids who cannot go to school and likely cannot afford to eat on their own as packs of feral dogs is problematic at all?

I found that part odd. Describing children of poor people as packs of feral dogs is similar to me as to describing children of black people as pack of feral dogs. The only conclusion I can make out is that either people did not interpret it as a negative description of poor people, or that looking down at poor people is more acceptable than in my own culture.

I would be very interested to hear from someone who find the current phrase acceptable but not if the comment had written "black" rather than the word "poor".

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#788

Post by JoeAltmaier »

econcon wrote: post #663
at-fates-hands wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's because the top has looted the economy Can you explain how this happens? How does one "loot" one of the largest economies in the world?

It's simple: Think about it, a CEO of a big company is more likely to be in social circle of the politicians, judges and regulators. They are more likely to be sympathetic to their immediate acquaintance who they see every week rather than those poor social economic class people who they have nothing in common with. Add some dilllusion and descrimination in the mix, like "they are poor because they are lazy" and it b…

Even simpler. The folks in a company that can write checks, write them to each other.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#789

Post by opo »

r00fus wrote: post #428
OldHand2018 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, if it gets taken away it gets given to me as the senior lien holder. For best legal protection, I should loan her money with some nominal interest rate. A distant family member did this on the house of one of their kids, and it saved them from losing it in a foreclosure. The other lender was so angry with them for refusing to release their lien; but they couldn't legally force them to do it.

Don't house loans require an upfront disclosure of leins against the property?

Yes. There might be a state where someone holding a lien on a house can prevent a first mortgage holder from foreclosing, but I'd certainly recommend someone talking to an attorney before trying this.
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