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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

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Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#371

Post by legolas2412 »

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #358
legolas2412 wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding [5], it says infection rate but talks about absolute number of cases. Which isn't a big surprise to be second in, India is a big country.

I'm not entirely sure what you expected from 'infection rate', it is the terminology being used every where to signify the number of infections. If you wanted to know, 'how many people does a single person spread the infection' i.e. R0 or R-Naught; then it has come down to 1.55 on 11th April from 1.83 on 6th April[6]. [6] https://theprint.in/science/r0-data-shows-indias-coronavirus...

You can't say infection rate and not say a percentage. What the article says is the number of infections, not a rate.

And I'm not talking about the effective reproduction number.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#372

Post by throwawaysea »

ra7 wrote: post #255
kumarvvr wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BBC and a myriad of British mainstream publications are decisively Anti India in their general narrative.

The NYT is also notorious for the same narrative building. Anyone who is serious about Indian news knows NYT, BBC et al report stories that are far away from ground realities.

With respect to coverage of India, this is definitely true across center and left leaning media in Western countries these days. It has especially come about because the American progressive left has built their political coalition in alignment with Muslim/pro-Muslim groups, which has blinded them to a neutral view. I saw the John Oliver piece on Modi recently, and was shocked to hear how one sided it was from Indian colleagues.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#373

Post by JPKab »

rovolo wrote: post #367
legolas2412 wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're off by a factor of 10 in your numbers

I'm using the per-mille (‰) rather than per-cent (%) symbol. Sorry for the confusion, but it's a more convenient unit for these quantities. This is how it'd look in percentages: NYC: 0.107% New Orleans: 0.065% Detroit: 0.060% Boston: 0.044% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per_mille

I've never seen that notation in my entire life. Learn something new every day.

Just want to point out that you didn't call that out explicitly. 99% (note that it's a percent) of people who saw your comment would see it and view it as a percent. I did, and I work with data all day every day.

It's unintentionally misleading to use notation like that without calling it out.

Just type "per mille" next time.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#374

Post by pkphilip »

glofish wrote: post #252
sharadov wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India going all Wuhan on the virus. The difference between India and the US particularly is that it's lockdown lite in USA while it's full on there. You can't take a walk, you can't drive farther than 3 KM, cops will kick your butt and impound your vehicle. And the population by and large listens, while we have morons here who want lockdown eased to get haircuts.

there is no evidence for that whatsoever. You have absolutely no data on what takes place in India - it is a gigantic country with gigantic variation across. Plus the families are much larger, all confined together. When the train was shut down millions traveled back home for days on packed buses, it unlikely that any lockdown could have had such a pronounced effect so quickly. The truth probably lies elsewhere, perh…

There are serious issues with the numbers coming out of India. For instance, some states which share huge borders with other states are showing far less numbers than the states they share the borders with even though these states didn't really implement movement restrictions at the border.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#375

Post by lurquer »

glofish wrote: post #252
sharadov wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India going all Wuhan on the virus. The difference between India and the US particularly is that it's lockdown lite in USA while it's full on there. You can't take a walk, you can't drive farther than 3 KM, cops will kick your butt and impound your vehicle. And the population by and large listens, while we have morons here who want lockdown eased to get haircuts.

there is no evidence for that whatsoever. You have absolutely no data on what takes place in India - it is a gigantic country with gigantic variation across. Plus the families are much larger, all confined together. When the train was shut down millions traveled back home for days on packed buses, it unlikely that any lockdown could have had such a pronounced effect so quickly. The truth probably lies elsewhere, perh…

India has some of the densest urban environments on the planet... Mumbai, Calcutta, Howraw, etc.

And, it has pockets of density that are mind-boggling, such as the slums at Dharavi. 9 to 10 people in a room, families taking 'shifts' in the same living areas, 100+ people per latrine in some parts.

Yet, absent a massive cover-up, no reports of mass deaths.

The same goes for many of the world's other dense cities: Manila, Caloocan, Port-au-Prince, Kathmandu, Subang Jaya, Tokyo (not to mention the dozen or so 10mill+ cities in China.)

When this is mentioned, the response is invariably that "they have an amazing lockdown system with state-of-the art contact tracing." Or, "well, THOSE people are very submissive and obedient to authority."

It's not believable.

What does it even mean to "lock-down" Dharavi?! That's absurd...

Millions of deaths were predicted. There aren't millions of deaths. Great. The lethality of the virus was grossly over-estimated. Yet, instead of happily acknowledging this, there are some bending over backwards trying to maintain that the Virus magically avoids places like Dharavi (or homeless camps in LA, or San Fran, or the elderly-populated Florida) because of government pronouncements.

I don't live in Dharavi. I've been there. And, I know there are plenty of people from India on this site. Maybe I'm wrong, but I cannot wrap my head around ANY lockdown policy that would make a rat's ass worth of a difference to virus spread in Dharavi. Ditto for Mexico City, the slums in Monterrey, Lagos, and the urban/slum sprawl in the metro areas of S. America.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#376

Post by rovolo »

JPKab wrote: post #373
rovolo wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm using the per-mille (‰) rather than per-cent (%) symbol. Sorry for the confusion, but it's a more convenient unit for these quantities. This is how it'd look in percentages: NYC: 0.107% New Orleans: 0.065% Detroit: 0.060% Boston: 0.044% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per_mille

I've never seen that notation in my entire life. Learn something new every day. Just want to point out that you didn't call that out explicitly. 99% (note that it's a percent) of people who saw your comment would see it and view it as a percent. I did, and I work with data all day every day. It's unintentionally misleading to use notation like that without calling it out. Just type "per mille" next time.

You're right, I should have called it out in the text. I thought ‰ was okay because I was comparing the other cities to NYC, not to an absolute value. Also, I think it's a fun symbol, and I want more english speakers to use it.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#377

Post by whb07 »

arihant wrote: post #150

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

Lol where does the 5% of yearly deaths from TB factor into all this? You mean the millions dead in India over the past decade is still happening, but they stopped this brand new considerably less deadly virus right away?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#378

Post by lurquer »

lurquer wrote: post #375
glofish wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is no evidence for that whatsoever. You have absolutely no data on what takes place in India - it is a gigantic country with gigantic variation across. Plus the families are much larger, all confined together. When the train was shut down millions traveled back home for days on packed buses, it unlikely that any lockdown could have had such a pronounced effect so quickly. The truth probably lies elsewhere, perh…

India has some of the densest urban environments on the planet... Mumbai, Calcutta, Howraw, etc. And, it has pockets of density that are mind-boggling, such as the slums at Dharavi. 9 to 10 people in a room, families taking 'shifts' in the same living areas, 100+ people per latrine in some parts. Yet, absent a massive cover-up, no reports of mass deaths. The same goes for many of the world's other dense cities: Manil…

Edit: "I don't live in Dharavi. I've never been there."

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#379

Post by carlsborg »

pgo wrote: post #19
carlsborg wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India started lockdown when confirmed Covid deaths was at about 200 or 300 total. Its now at ~900 and doubling every ~10 days.

You got the facts completely wrong, India started the lockdown when total deaths were just 10 ! Source: https://www.covid19india.org/

Right. My bad. I was looking at the lockdown extension date sorry.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#380

Post by glofish »

lurquer wrote: post #375
glofish wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is no evidence for that whatsoever. You have absolutely no data on what takes place in India - it is a gigantic country with gigantic variation across. Plus the families are much larger, all confined together. When the train was shut down millions traveled back home for days on packed buses, it unlikely that any lockdown could have had such a pronounced effect so quickly. The truth probably lies elsewhere, perh…

India has some of the densest urban environments on the planet... Mumbai, Calcutta, Howraw, etc. And, it has pockets of density that are mind-boggling, such as the slums at Dharavi. 9 to 10 people in a room, families taking 'shifts' in the same living areas, 100+ people per latrine in some parts. Yet, absent a massive cover-up, no reports of mass deaths. The same goes for many of the world's other dense cities: Manil…

this is the elephant in the room,

it is not fashionable to talk about, it does not fit the current narrative - the scientific "group think" when it comes to the virus is incredibly strong

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