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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#681

Post by apazzolini »

BetaDeltaAlpha wrote: post #557
apazzolini wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man, that 50% of the population that's able to buy things without paying sales tax is really fortunate. How do I sign up for that benefit?

You could move to Oregon... ...In all seriousness, the parent comment was probably referring to the Federal Income Tax.

Yes, I'm aware that's what he was referring to, but it's not the entirety of the tax burden in the US, and even people who pay nothing in income tax still pay taxes.

This is precisely why a flat tax disproportionally impacts lower income people.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#682

Post by jakeogh »

rconti wrote: post #668
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

If the country feels rudderless and without leadership, it is. The top is, well, obviously, useless. State leadership is all doing different things, which is, in some ways, a good thing, but I don't hear much in a concrete way about what the plan is to address this all over the next 12-18 months. We hear a lot about when we'll "open things back up" or phased re-openings, but nothing whatsoever about a strategy -- THE…

Record low unemployment in almost every category before the media panic-machine induced over-reaction[1]. My bet is we will rebound just fine.

[1] https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#683

Post by lleolin »

dudul wrote: post #112
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

I guess I don't understand why more people aren't asking for a solution that allows them to sustain themselves and their families and also doesn't elevate the risk of spreading COVID-19. I don't get how "end the lockdown and let a bunch of people get sick" or "possibly starve homeless in the streets" became the only two possible options, and I don't get how anyone becomes a staunch advocate for either.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#684

Post by jpindar »

standardUser wrote: post #308
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Essential business" designations are central planning, and I've seen reasonably influential people argue that we could keep them going indefinitely if we had to.

Examples of central planning do not imply a centrally planned economy, just as examples of free markets do not imply a free market economy. Every nation on earth has a mixed economic system (except maybe North Korea?) so let's not waste any more time denying that fact.

Even North Korea. They found they had no choice but to allow the equivalent of farmer's markets or flea markets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jangmadang

https://youtu.be/lvsqpwI_IfU

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#685

Post by snowwrestler »

rconti wrote: post #668
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

If the country feels rudderless and without leadership, it is. The top is, well, obviously, useless. State leadership is all doing different things, which is, in some ways, a good thing, but I don't hear much in a concrete way about what the plan is to address this all over the next 12-18 months. We hear a lot about when we'll "open things back up" or phased re-openings, but nothing whatsoever about a strategy -- THE…

The back-to-work strategy will most likely be led by large businesses. They have resources, they will decide what strategies they want to follow, and they're all working on that now.

And really, no one can argue with them on that. A governor or president can order businesses closed, they can lift that order, but they can't force businesses to go back to work before the business leaders and customers are ready to.

What governments need to do is clarify the new rules of the road for businesses. For example companies that used to be heavily restricted on how they can use health information are now going to need to test all their employees, make decisions based on those test results, provide protective medical equipment, etc.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#686

Post by krapp »

stcredzero wrote: post #665
harikb wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> one perceives as deplorable There is no reason to bring that reference in an otherwise non-political discussion.

There is no reason to bring that reference in an otherwise non-political discussion. It's hard to separate socioeconomic differentials from politics. And I specifically use deplorable to call out the political excesses of my own accustomed "tribe."

>And I specifically use deplorable to call out the political excesses of my own accustomed "tribe."

And, either purposely or naively, you're misconstruing the context and scope of a single quote as if you were a part of the other "tribe."

The "basket of deplorables" comment is widely and incorrectly assumed to be an expression of elitist disdain by "the left" for all rural white males, all Trump supporters, or everyone of lower socioeconomic class, when it rather explicitly referred to the - and I'm paraphrasing almost directly from the quote here - "racists, sexists, homophobes, xenophobes, Islamophobes" who took over Trump's base and steered it in an extremist direction. In other words, people who should be considered deplorable.

It may not have been a precisely worded criticism but it was an accurate one.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#687

Post by akiselev »

rconti wrote: post #668
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

If the country feels rudderless and without leadership, it is. The top is, well, obviously, useless. State leadership is all doing different things, which is, in some ways, a good thing, but I don't hear much in a concrete way about what the plan is to address this all over the next 12-18 months. We hear a lot about when we'll "open things back up" or phased re-openings, but nothing whatsoever about a strategy -- THE…

> I'm not quite sure if the states are hoping the federal government will come out with some unifying strategy/process/materials/procedures at some point, or what, but it sure ain't happening.

They're not - most of the megaregions are forming interstate compacts to coordinate medium to long term strategy. Colorado and Nevada just joined the Western States Pact which CA/OR/WA started a few weeks ago around the same time the East Coast created their own. I think the Great Lakes states have one as well.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#688

Post by mempko »

cactus2093 wrote: post #516
_bxg1 wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. There is deep rot at the heart of the American system, and something is going to have to give. The economy has been broken for the lower 50% for a long time now. This course is unsustainable. I try not to get explicitly political on here, but Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system.…

I mostly agree with what you're saying, but disagree about Bernie. Many of his biggest policies are still just trying to cover the rot with a coat of paint. Healthcare too expensive? Just have the government cover the bill. College too expensive? Same thing. Workers not paid enough? Raise the minimum wage. All very blunt, simplistic reactions, that ignore the complexities of the real world. Getting rid of the rot req…

Are you familiar with Bernie's plans of

a) giving 20% of ownership of large corporations and 40% of board seats to workers?

b) breaking up the big banks and helping community banks.

These are insanely good ideas and aren't simplistic. Unfortunately, many, including you, only scratched the surface of what Bernie was about.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#689

Post by _bxg1 »

cactus2093 wrote: post #516
_bxg1 wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. There is deep rot at the heart of the American system, and something is going to have to give. The economy has been broken for the lower 50% for a long time now. This course is unsustainable. I try not to get explicitly political on here, but Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system.…

I mostly agree with what you're saying, but disagree about Bernie. Many of his biggest policies are still just trying to cover the rot with a coat of paint. Healthcare too expensive? Just have the government cover the bill. College too expensive? Same thing. Workers not paid enough? Raise the minimum wage. All very blunt, simplistic reactions, that ignore the complexities of the real world. Getting rid of the rot req…

I would agree with you if there weren't so many case studies of other countries solving those problems with those exact, "blunt"-seeming solutions.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#690

Post by mullingitover »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #568
vasillevski wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this like it’s a good thing? This is reflective of an economic system that isn’t functioning well. All this points to is the fact that income is highly concentrated in the hands of a few, and that opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed. I’m sure that went right over your head when you proudly decided to trumpet that nugget of information. Alas, I’m sure I’m just shouting into a void of ignoranc…

I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…

Sharing anecdotes about pulling yourself up by your bootstraps doesn't change the fact that the biggest predictors of your life outcomes are your parents incomes and your zip code.
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