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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#591

Post by AnimalMuppet »

cik2e wrote: post #565

This isn’t a typical recession and cannot be compared to anything in the past. The economy has been effectively put on pause. So the dynamics of the duration and recovery will be totally different than anything we’ve seen in the past. I’m optimistic about a much quicker recovery than the last one.

If we don't destroy it by the pause.

Look, I think the pause was necessary. But economies don't come with pause buttons. We had to do something that nobody has ever done before, and the second- and third-order effects are going to include some surprises.

I'm hopeful that you're right, that we can have a quick and relatively clean recovery, back to (mostly) where we were. But I'm also nervous that it won't work...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#592

Post by fallingfrog »

a_wild_dandan wrote: post #453
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Someone on Twitter described the stock market as a graph of rich people feelings and, facetious as that is, I wonder if there's truth to it. A market driven partly by emotion could mean a stock hysteresis where the market's long-term reaction lags behind the economic reality like you describe. The recent headline "16 million people just got laid off but U.S. stocks had their best week in 45 years" is the most mind-sh…

The other thing to remember is that nobody actually loses anything when stock prices go down. Everyone still owns the same stocks, in the aggregate, and no actual material property is lost. Just the valuation changes. To insist that valuations cannot be allowed to go down as a matter of government policy is totally bonkers.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#593

Post by marricks »

jdhn wrote: post #455
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

There’s been plenty of strikes at Amazon, instacart, and others. Hell, there’s a growing movement for a rent strike in May as well.

Just go figure the only widely covered protests are the right wing astroturfed ones...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#594

Post by entropea »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #568
vasillevski wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this like it’s a good thing? This is reflective of an economic system that isn’t functioning well. All this points to is the fact that income is highly concentrated in the hands of a few, and that opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed. I’m sure that went right over your head when you proudly decided to trumpet that nugget of information. Alas, I’m sure I’m just shouting into a void of ignoranc…

I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…

>I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below the poverty line. I didn't graduate in four years like most of my friends, but I was still able to get myself out of college, get a job and have been able to build a career out of almost nothing.

That's completely anecdotal, but I experienced nearly the same. I agree with the above poster that opportunity is limited and unequally distributed, and I would say you and I experienced a good bit of luck....not to minimize your struggles.

USA has a very low class & income mobility [1].

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/aparnamathur/2018/07/16/the-u-s...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#595

Post by misun78 »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #568
vasillevski wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this like it’s a good thing? This is reflective of an economic system that isn’t functioning well. All this points to is the fact that income is highly concentrated in the hands of a few, and that opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed. I’m sure that went right over your head when you proudly decided to trumpet that nugget of information. Alas, I’m sure I’m just shouting into a void of ignoranc…

I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…

I have reported the commentator above if it helps. Last thing we need is virtue signaling jerks on this site, they can head over to their favorite poltical echo chamber forum instead.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#596

Post by jazzyk »

bo1024 wrote: post #562
0xffff2 wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.

The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. * Middle-class Americans consistently pump money into the stock market generically (not information trading), raising the value of all your stocks over time. * Now you have a gun to their head to support policies that pump up the value of your stocks even more. * Also, when shit hits the fan, they can't easily cash out, but you can. Both on a mega-scale…

Just a pedantic note - I have most of my 401K money in Certificates of Deposit, so you do not have to pump the market.

However (thanks, Federal Reserve!), you get punished with interest rates below inflation, so people, increasingly desperate to protect their savings from inflation, put their money in risky investments (not just the stock market, also overpriced real-estate, etc).

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#597

Post by devonkim »

parsnips wrote: post #539
standardUser wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Examples of any influential individuals calling for overthrowing the current economic system and replacing it with a centrally planned economy?

AOC, Rashida Talib, Ilhan Omar. What do you think the Green New Deal is?

The GND with its extensive use of private contractors is basically neoliberal like our current DoD. It is structured almost exactly the same as DoD and with a vague never-ending mission would likely take as much resources to fight an enemy that may honestly always exist. A better policy would be focused upon global trade policies to globally incentivize all countries to choose cleaner infrastructure. This sobering reality is one I certainly found refreshing from the Yang climate worldview than the climate alarmist view that civilization ends if we don't go carbon neutral in 8 years aggressively pushing the GND as a gold standard policy.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#598

Post by q92z8oeif »

cultus wrote: post #504
stcredzero wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

The folks participating in the protest are not at all lower on the socioeconomic latter, but predominately middle class. Black Americans, who tend to be poorer and less secure, support the lockdown at a higher rate than whites or other racial groups [0] (at least in Florida). Whites have the least support for a lockdown, but most still oppose reopening. Lastly, at least some of the protests were funded by the DeVos f…

Fact that US still have to break down so much into racial cohorts in polls is weird. And offer nothing of value other than the generalizations like "who tend to be poorer" that doesn't help the discussion nor analysis. What do you do with this information in this context?

How about breaking down by religion or something else that at least points to what kind of media/message the group is more exposed to? or something that hints at extraneous interests, like homeowners or not. There are so much better ways to break down this data.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#599

Post by AnimalMuppet »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #107
nakedshorts wrote: post #33

One year ago, if you had asked me what would happen if we printed $4T+ (that's 20% of GDP for perspective) out of thin air and injected it into the economy, I would've told you massive hyperinflation and immediate collapse of the dollar. Instead, we see the US Dollar Index strengthening over the last 6 months [1]. The dominance of the United States as a global hegemonic superpower truly cannot be overstated; I'm in a…

Printing money hasn't caused inflation since world war 1 and that's because the demand for USD is virtually unlimited. As long as the money printed comes back to the government as taxes, it's not an issue. Else it becomes a deficit. This was already theorized by modern money mechanics and this incident is proving it right

I saw the 1970s. We had 14% inflation. That came from somewhere.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#600

Post by baggy_trough »

lisper wrote: post #581
baggy_trough wrote: post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly Democrats are just as corrupt and hostile to facts as Republicans (the set of denied facts will be different of course). Only a partisan would claim otherwise.

Can you give some examples?

Of course. Many large cities have been run exclusively by Democrats for decades and are notoriously corrupt, for example Chicago and Illinois more generally.

The facts that are denied will be those that run counter to the prevailing sacred cows of whatever movement it is. One that especially irks me on the Democratic side of the fence is denying that the minimum wage has a cost in jobs, despite near universal belief from economists that this is the case.

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