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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#211

Post by [deleted] »

cpursley wrote: post #200
klmadfejno wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however. Not much if 80% of them are very old and sick.

You're getting downvotes but it's true. There are other considerations that are completely being ignored by the ivory tower types. It's shocking to some, but jobs are how people afford to live their lives (buy food, pay rent, pay tax which funds government, etc). I'm more concerned about social and political unrest that often results from mass unemployment, people losing their homes, not enough to eat, etc than losin…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#212

Post by esotericn »

buboard wrote: post #204
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

So, how is it that people employed in essential businesses have not become rich in this pandemic? After all they are in high, crucial demand and could/should command better wages than programmers at this time. Sure, some of those raises would increase the price of goods, but that would be offset by hefty UBI checks to everyone. How is it that people who endanger their lives working in supermarkets don't get raises, b…

Because they have no money.

Having money is a feedback loop. You can't negotiate if you're skint.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#213

Post by grey-area »

MattGaiser wrote: post #148
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars Retail like that is very underrepresented in the stock market, so those losses wouldn't be reflected.

But many people invest in commercial real estate directly or indirectly, and all those travel/retail industry companies were advertising customers for google/fb, and their unemployed workers are customers for Apple and Amazon who now have no money.

That the stock market doesn't reflect main street yet after the biggest stimulus in history is perhaps unsurprising but also a little worrying.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#214

Post by abduhl »

balls187 wrote: post #155
dudul wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

On the flip-side, putting all businesses in this situation means most of us are in the same situation; and every market/industry needs to work together to get out of this crisis. If no one can pay their mortgage, loan holders HAVE to make exceptions. That shared spirit of sacrifice isn't a reason to institute lock down orders, but my opinion is that it will allow us to lesson the economic damage long term.

Why do they have to make exceptions? Absent a government mandate there is no requirement and, unfortunately, the mortgage is secured by the underlying property.

I fully expect, and you should too, foreclosures to skyrocket and people to be on the street. The banking sector is not in the business of shares sacrifice and the US government isn’t in the business of letting the banks collapse.

This lockdown will kill people. Let’s not be blind to that fact out of some sense of moral righteousness or some hope of humanity being found by faceless corporations.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#215

Post by gvhst »

aphextron wrote: post #145
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

I missed pretty much the same amount of school during SARS in Hong Kong in 2003. This was before any sort of remote learning was possible, I didn’t do school work for pretty much a whole semester. I didn’t feel that this held me back at all, however there were a few key differences in my end:

- I was in 4th grade where school was less rigorous

- I went to a private international school

- While my parents were busy working, I still had a stable home environment to count on

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#216

Post by [deleted] »

mcphilip wrote: post #138
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#217

Post by yters »

RankingMember wrote: post #151
dudul wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

The essential motivation for people to want to feed their families/pay bills is completely logical, but it's important to keep in perspective that the virus doesn't care about any of these things. We don't need to look too far back in history to see that ending isolation in a pandemic too early can have huge consequences (much bigger than an economic slowdown/unemployment).

It's not clear how bad things would actually be without the lockdown. There is a continuum, and I'm sure there is a much happier medium than what we currently have.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#218

Post by vsareto »

low_common wrote: post #190
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Where do you live? That sounds apocalyptic.

Look at Detroit if you want a good idea.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#219

Post by lbeltrame »

klmadfejno wrote: post #181
res0nat0r wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand their thinking because not working is causing a massive amount of collateral damage, but the virus doesn't care about any of that. If everyone goes back to normal too early, this all just starts over, and folks are forced to be inside even longer, there's just no way around it.

> If everyone goes back to normal too early, this all just starts over, and folks are forced to be inside even longer, there's just no way around it. This whole thing just starts over if we EVER go back to normal unless a vaccine is invented. Herd immunity is impossible to achieve during an effective lockdown. It's not like we're any closer to being able to safely resume activities than one month ago. A highly infect…

> This whole thing just starts over if we EVER go back to normal unless a vaccine is invented.

We can get to normal faster if effective pharmacological treatments come out from the ongoing trials. If we can treat it, or at least prevent it from being severe, it is not a problem of public health anymore.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#220

Post by mywittyname »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #107
nakedshorts wrote: post #33

One year ago, if you had asked me what would happen if we printed $4T+ (that's 20% of GDP for perspective) out of thin air and injected it into the economy, I would've told you massive hyperinflation and immediate collapse of the dollar. Instead, we see the US Dollar Index strengthening over the last 6 months [1]. The dominance of the United States as a global hegemonic superpower truly cannot be overstated; I'm in a…

Printing money hasn't caused inflation since world war 1 and that's because the demand for USD is virtually unlimited. As long as the money printed comes back to the government as taxes, it's not an issue. Else it becomes a deficit. This was already theorized by modern money mechanics and this incident is proving it right

QE has led to inflation, but it's lead to the good kind of inflation: increases in stock and real estate prices; and not to the bad kind: increases in food and energy prices (for the USA, at least). A side-effect of QE is the decrease in bond yields, pushing capital into stocks and real estate, which furthers the goal of propping up asset prices.

I am worried that QE will eventually lead to a collapse in yields across the entire economy. QE is great at maintaining or increasing the price of assets, but unless the productivity underlying the asset continues to grow, then yields will continue a trend towards 0. It doesn't help that the people who benefit the most from QE, are also the those who never need to liquidate their assets. These investors are perfectly happy to watch the paper value of their assets explode while yields remain the same.

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