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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

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Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#291
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Obviously a lockdown can cause the number of cases to go down. Maybe I'm just ignorant, but could you explain how a lockdown is supposed to decrease the total number of cases rather than just prolong it? A lockdown does not make a population more resilient to a virus. It just reduces contagion vectors so it spreads more slowly. The virus still spreads, though. Eventually, enough of the population will catch the vir…

Once you get "R" below 1, the number of cases goes down. Once the number of cases is small enough, you can identify and quarantine all of them. With a good enough testing infrastructure this gets easier. You can then have a "selective" lockdown only around actual cases.

Yes. A bunch of countries have entered (or are about to enter) this phase: New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#292

I’m a (foreign) American citizen staying in India and happened to arrive here a few days before lockdown started. I don’t understand how this is a mystery: India quickly locked down the entire country and going outdoors was consistently punishable by police hitting people with sticks (thankfully it seems like the brutality has eased up since the start and police are doing things like making people write sorry on the…

Did you see police beating people yourself? I have a suspicion that it was made just for camera to scare people.

That did happen. A good number of people in India only take things seriously when there is some degree of harshness from the administration.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India going all Wuhan on the virus. The difference between India and the US particularly is that it's lockdown lite in USA while it's full on there. You can't take a walk, you can't drive farther than 3 KM, cops will kick your butt and impound your vehicle. And the population by and large listens, while we have morons here who want lockdown eased to get haircuts.

People are largely forced to comply to the lockdown because police are often resorting to using of indiscriminate force, which isn't becoming in any modern country. Serious lack of empathy from the Police and Governments in India.

India has one of the lowest police officers to population ratio in the world, with 144 policemen to 100,000 citizens [1].Significanty, large majority of the policemen do not even carry guns or even tasers. The public trust of the police is also fairly low.

People are staying in and following the curfew because thanks to a robust media ecosystem and insane connectivity facilitated by cheap data plans and accessible smart phones, most folks are aware of the severity of the challenge confronting the country.

There are significant issues, especially with testing and the plight of the unorganised migrant labour, with how this is playing out, many due to simply the massive scale and relatively poor Indian state capacity, as well as some political football from all players involved.

Nonetheless, a large reason why people are "complying" with the lockdown is (IMO) because of a lot of awareness and a high degree of social responsibility.

It is difficult to imagine how the microscopic "blue line", or khakhi line, in India, as it were, could "force compliance" in this situation if the society at large did not accept that it was required.

This argument that the large majority of the population is complying due to fear of the police or authorities is (IMO) a disservice to the maturity demonstrated by the Indian society.

I can only hope the Indian govt and political class can step up to the plate and manage the exit and restart of the economy with the same maturity and sagacity.

[1] https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-police-force-amo...

Edit: added link and clarified 2 sentences to improve readability

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#294

Anecdotally I know ex-colleagues who got Covid19 in the US and one of them has died. I literally know of no one who is sick, much less with covid19, here in India in my friend circle, in my family circle and across the 1000+ employee company I work in. Either there's asymptomatic sick in my circle or no one has it. Granted I am anxious, and hope things don't get worse, but international media has been pathetic on rep…

Anecdotally, I'm in the US and I don't know anyone who has become sick. One person at our company (10000+ employees) became sick and recovered.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#295
post #142
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctors have a bad reputation in Pakistan, given one's role in OBL's murder. And perhaps, more generally, among some Muslim populations. I'm not arguing that it's justified, by the way. Or that it's a majority opinion. Just that it exists.

OBL was "murdered"? Is that your view?

"Don't feed egregious comments by replying; flag them instead."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#296
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Obviously a lockdown can cause the number of cases to go down. Maybe I'm just ignorant, but could you explain how a lockdown is supposed to decrease the total number of cases rather than just prolong it? A lockdown does not make a population more resilient to a virus. It just reduces contagion vectors so it spreads more slowly. The virus still spreads, though. Eventually, enough of the population will catch the vir…

Once you get "R" below 1, the number of cases goes down. Once the number of cases is small enough, you can identify and quarantine all of them. With a good enough testing infrastructure this gets easier. You can then have a "selective" lockdown only around actual cases.

> Once the number of cases is small enough, you can identify and quarantine all of them.

A nation is not a closed system so I don't see that ever working out.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is something that has really struck me during the Corona crisis: the misplaced Western believe of superiority towards Asian countries. I am European and I feel embarrassed about how much arrogance is displayed by some people and governments. It started already in the beginning, when the virus was spreading rapidly in China. Reports about the failing Chinese authority were all over the place, but nobody seemed to…

I agree with you and I’ve made the same observation but I don’t think it’s due to some misplaced sense of superiority. I think it’s simply because it has been a while since disease and pestilence was a worry for the average Western country so the average citizen (and therefore the leaders) are complacent in a sort of “It can’t happen here” way. There have been outbreaks such as the AIDS epidemic or swine flu but noth…

> I think it’s simply because it has been a while since disease and pestilence was a worry for the average Western country so the average citizen (and therefore the leaders) are complacent in a sort of “It can’t happen here” way. There have been outbreaks such as the AIDS epidemic or swine flu but nothing as impactful, infectious, and at the scale of COVID.

I agree that this is the main factor. Consequently I proposed the concept of the "civilization immune system" to explain how it works: https://www.sonyasupposedly.com/civilizational-immune-system...

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#298
post #145

Ah yet another cant-be-true-they're-hiding-something article? Surely they can't be doing better than developed countries? FWIW, India did implement a stronger lockdown much earlier on in the curve than other countries. State and federal authorities went lock-step in their actions, and with consistent messaging. Police enforced the lockdown at times even brutally, getting the point across to the general public. Indian…

I agree with you. The condescending tone by Western media towards India is awful and disgusting. The reality is probably that it's a combination of doing the lockdown well and the disease being far less deadly than initially thought due to very high asymptomatic infection rates. The latter is an emerging fact that the media here are in denial over. Therefore, they think India must be undercounting or something else.…

NYC certainly got hit bad, but I wouldn't say it's the only badly hit city. Here is deaths/total pop for some other cities >1mil population which I would also call "hit hard".

NYC: 1.07‰

New Orleans: 0.65‰

Detroit: 0.60‰

Boston: 0.44‰

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/corona...

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Kazakhstan and so far out country seems to be doing a right thing. We're heavily quarantined and I don't think that states are hiding anything. Economy implications of such a lockdown probably will be harsh, but that's a different thing. There was ill person in the building I'm living in and now entire building section just closed, nobody can go out and regular desinfections are performed (I don't think tha…

> Some western people just think that they are strictly superior everywhere to the developing countries. The so-called western people , I'd argue, have the right mindset. I agree governments capable of draconian measures tend to do well when such behaviour control is desirable at a nationwide scale. That doesn't mean it is the only solution or even the best one. I personally would pretty much prefer prevention, absen…

South Korean government did have strong laws on their side, some of which can be considered as draconian by American standards[1].

Considering behaviour of American population to the lax government measures, I guess strong laws/measures are the way to go.

1. https://www.lawfareblog.com/lessons-america-how-south-korean...

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#300

While the reported deaths may be low, the 'they are hiding something' attitude is not helpful. India cannot do the level of testing that western countries do due to the humongous population. I can very well assure you in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China. A distant relative died of cardiac arrest and the measures were so strict that in a highly social society where paying respects to a deceased is consider…

A single case of suspected swine flu was reported so fast across whatsapp and social media. People don't understand how prevalent social media is in India and think people are just dying at homes. The BBC definitely is anti-India.

Calling them anti-India is a bit too much. Their shallow analysis might be the result of less people on the ground.
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