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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

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Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#281

Post by billfruit »

sharadov wrote: post #201
arihant wrote: post #150

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

India going all Wuhan on the virus. The difference between India and the US particularly is that it's lockdown lite in USA while it's full on there. You can't take a walk, you can't drive farther than 3 KM, cops will kick your butt and impound your vehicle. And the population by and large listens, while we have morons here who want lockdown eased to get haircuts.

People are largely forced to comply to the lockdown because police are often resorting to using of indiscriminate force, which isn't becoming in any modern country. Serious lack of empathy from the Police and Governments in India.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#282

Post by jaywalk »

sharadov wrote: post #275
glofish wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is no evidence for that whatsoever. You have absolutely no data on what takes place in India - it is a gigantic country with gigantic variation across. Plus the families are much larger, all confined together. When the train was shut down millions traveled back home for days on packed buses, it unlikely that any lockdown could have had such a pronounced effect so quickly. The truth probably lies elsewhere, perh…

Hospitals are not overwhelmed, people not dying in droves. There may be genetic immunity, with people already exposed to a lot more viruses, less obesity, and comorbid conditions. Also there may be different strains of the virus at work. But we are comparing the lockdown measures here and there, and the anti-science Trumpards who think it's a conspiracy, and protesting. Individual states ( CA ) are doing a great job,…

Do you think speaking the way you do is actually helpful or positively contributes to the conversation?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#283

Post by dorgo »

klmadfejno wrote: post #236
kumarvvr wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the official end game for all the countries that have lockdown? Have control over new infections and resulting hospitalizations so as to not overwhelm healthcare infrastructure. This is especially required in India, where a large section of the population is uneducated, lack propee facilities and live on daily wages, with little to no savings or assets. As in South Korea, the idea is to ramp up testing so tha…

There's a painful cognitive dissonance that people seem to have about this disease. If your lockdown stops the spread of the disease, your population doesn't get immunity. No amount of infrastructure will allow the population to get immunity without all of the deaths that come with it. Absent effective medicines being developed, which are very unlikely to appear for a long time, countries need to consider that they'r…

German government declined the herd immunity strategy with the argument that for it to succseed in a year's time we have to increase the rate of new infections every day to 70k. No way our health care system can handle this. And there is also no need since we expect to have a vaccine ready in one year.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#284

Post by sixstringtheory »

viklove wrote: post #215
vbezhenar wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you see police beating people yourself? I have a suspicion that it was made just for camera to scare people.

In India there's never a shortage of people (police or civilians) beating each other with sticks. Happened long before COVID and will continue long after.

One of the most eye-opening things I've ever seen was the crush of people trying to get on the general admission train car being beaten back with sticks before the train even stopped moving.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#286

Post by enitihas »

arihant wrote: post #150

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

Absolutely this. My hometown, whole hometown, home to 55k people, got sealed on just one single case. National highway is blocked. All previous passes invalidated. New passes were issued to ensure delivery of groceries. In a town where no company does grocery delivery, local vendors have started doing home delivery.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#287

Post by ardy42 »

mikem170 wrote: post #200
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s first response to doctors reporting the virus was to send police to them and shut them up. I’ll gladly believe I live in a better country.

I had the impression, based on news articles at the time, that local officials were behind the initial coverup in Wuhan, lasting until national officials rectified the situation.

> I had the impression, based on news articles at the time, that local officials were behind the initial coverup in Wuhan, lasting until national officials rectified the situation.

CPP propaganda strategically concentrates blame for any kind of domestic problem on local officials in order make the central authorities seem trustworthy and competent by comparison. While the local Wuhan officials definitely had an independent hand in the mismanagement, the central government had its role, too.

It's also arguable that the central government is responsible for the coverup activities by the Wuhan officials, because they're the ones who've created and sustained the system those local officials operate in.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#288

Post by toast0 »

standardUser wrote: post #272
sandworm101 wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in Canada (west coast). No restrictions on driving. People are still taveling to their cabins on the weekend. They get yelled at by other people but are not breaking any laws. My neighourhood is full of elderly people walking their dogs. Bicylists are everywhere. Restaurants never stopped doing takeout. But we cannot get haircuts. Cops have stopped speed enforcement in my area, at least the dedicated speed traps.

The speeding has been happening all over the US too and it makes me sick. These people should be fined into oblivion, cars impounded, licenses revoked. Now is not the time to be creating extra problems for society.

As always, it depends on the circumstances. If you're doing 15-20 mph over the limit on a highway with very little traffic in the daytime and good weather? That's probably appropriate speed for the conditions.

If you're doing double the limit, or freeway speeds through neighborhoods, that's probably dangerous.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#289

Post by twomoretime »

CivBase wrote: post #170
marcosdumay wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously a lockdown can cause the number of cases to go down. There's no mystery here. There are many countries doing the same. Yes, it is "supposed" to flatten the curve always keeping some manageable number of people infected. So if you reduce the number of cases any further you are doing it wrong; because no, you won't extinguish the virus, you'll only prolong the lockdown.

> Obviously a lockdown can cause the number of cases to go down. Maybe I'm just ignorant, but could you explain how a lockdown is supposed to decrease the total number of cases rather than just prolong it? A lockdown does not make a population more resilient to a virus. It just reduces contagion vectors so it spreads more slowly. The virus still spreads, though. Eventually, enough of the population will catch the vir…

>Maybe I'm just ignorant, but could you explain how a lockdown is supposed to decrease the total number of cases rather than just prolong it

It's not so black and white. We're talking about the area under the curve. The area under the curve varies nonlinearly with R0. But yes, because of the nature of the logistic function, a flatter curve will lead to fewer cases overall, once you factor in time and the assumption that eventually for whatever reason it will go away.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#290

Post by rootusrootus »

trianglem wrote: post #209
standardUser wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most Western nations are doing fine. There's really just a dozen or so countries that have been hit hard, and even then the impact has been uneven within the hardest hit countries.

The US and the UK are seeing a massive number of deaths.

It varies significantly within the US. In Oregon we have had 92 deaths for 4.2M people. Not massive at all.

That is in spite of what is pretty weak compliance with the shelter-in-place directives.

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