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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#791

Post by gizmondo »

thu2111 wrote: post #750
ashtonkem wrote: post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s the rational calculus, yes. But humans have a really hard time balancing suffering today against hypothetical suffering tomorrow, especially when successful intervention makes it appear like the problem was never there in the first place.

Well yes, of course it's rational. Tautologically, hypothetical suffering tomorrow might not happen whereas suffering today actually is happening - in this case we have only the words of essentially discredited 'experts' (epidemiologists), many of whom are constantly bickering in public and pronouncing each others models useless or broken. And the idea that mass lockdowns can stop the spread of virus is itself a radi…

> And the idea that mass lockdowns can stop the spread of virus is itself a radical, new idea that's never been tried, and which has its own cadre of experts saying it hasn't been working or is making little difference.

You probably could say "has not been tried recently", but mass quarantines has been tried since time immemorial.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#792

Post by watwut »

smallgovt wrote: post #126
newacct583 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ease up how? I mean, what's the specific proposal? The lockdown isn't "total" anyway -- very large numbers of people are still working at full salary (including, it must be pointed out, probably more than half the readers of this very site). There's little to no low hanging fruit of safe jobs that can be reopened. Just go look at the California list of "essential" jobs and tell us what needs to be added. Fundamentall…

Um, I'm not sure if you're being serious, but there are plenty of ways to gradually re-open. As an example: step 1) re-open elementary schools step 2) re-open middle schools step 3) re-open high schools & colleges step 4) re-open all small businesses that do not result in gatherings of more than 2 people in one place, then 5, then 10, then 20, then 50 I'm not saying that's the right approach but there is certainly mi…

Shouldnt step 4 be actually first one as it has lowest risk of making anything spread? Meanwhile, kids in elementary schools are unable to keep distance from each other and opening them requires reorganization like need for more space, need have them in smaller groups etc.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#793

Post by frockington1 »

dragonwriter wrote: post #742
blast wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. Another issue is the age divide. Younger people: harder hit economically, less so by the virus; older people: harder hit by the virus, less so economically. This can only worsen the class fissure which had already developed along generational lines.

Younger people are less likely to die as quickly from acute respiratory failure from the virus, but if the indications of various delayed and lasting effects are at all accurate, probably are, on average, losing more QALYs to the virus, and so are arguably harder, if less obviously so, hit.

I haven;t seen any non sensationalized evidence regarding long term effects of this virus (health, economically this will permanently cripple many nations). Can you link some health articles?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#794

Post by thu2111 »

gizmondo wrote: post #791
thu2111 wrote: post #750

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yes, of course it's rational. Tautologically, hypothetical suffering tomorrow might not happen whereas suffering today actually is happening - in this case we have only the words of essentially discredited 'experts' (epidemiologists), many of whom are constantly bickering in public and pronouncing each others models useless or broken. And the idea that mass lockdowns can stop the spread of virus is itself a radi…

> And the idea that mass lockdowns can stop the spread of virus is itself a radical, new idea that's never been tried, and which has its own cadre of experts saying it hasn't been working or is making little difference. You probably could say "has not been tried recently", but mass quarantines has been tried since time immemorial.

No. Preventative mass global quarantine has never been tried anywhere. Even quarantines in classical times were used for the already infected and known to be infectious, not everyone at once. What's being done now has no precedent.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#795

Post by gizmondo »

thu2111 wrote: post #794
gizmondo wrote: post #791

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And the idea that mass lockdowns can stop the spread of virus is itself a radical, new idea that's never been tried, and which has its own cadre of experts saying it hasn't been working or is making little difference. You probably could say "has not been tried recently", but mass quarantines has been tried since time immemorial.

No. Preventative mass global quarantine has never been tried anywhere. Even quarantines in classical times were used for the already infected and known to be infectious, not everyone at once. What's being done now has no precedent.

Global quarantine has never been tried just because there was (almost) no global travel or communication.

And I think your second statement is false, preventive isolation en masse was practiced (to the extent possible) during bubonic plague.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#796

Post by frockington1 »

pests wrote: post #541
oppositelock wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can speak to a few examples specifically. It's planting season now, and high business for nurseries. In Santa Clara County, they're closed by fiat. Lowe's, Home Depot, ACE hardware sell essential things (plumbing supplies, etc), so they get to remain open, in-store nurseries and all. So, if I want tomatoes, I have to brave the crowds at Lowe's instead of hopping out to my local nursery which is rarely densely popul…

This is hilarious to me. In Michigan big box stores can't sell garden items or seeds. You can still get them from any other retailer that was open. People were protesting.

Come down south to Ohio, we've somehow managed to escape many of the zealotry on both sides. We'll have most retail open by May 12th if you need anything

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#797

Post by justin66 »

masonic wrote: post #764
justin66 wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The grace period to start paying for a plan under the ACA is 60 days, not "forever." It's true that you don't need to wait for open enrollment, a special enrollment period opens for you when you lose your job. edit: I'm not sure there's any grace period at all with the ACA. You have 60 days to sign up, but unlike COBRA, I don't see any evidence you can start using the insurance without paying for it first, which is t…

I was talking about California. CA has no such limitation right now. https://www.coveredca.com/individuals-and-families/getting-c... I don't see any evidence you can start using the insurance without paying for it first, Because there's no limitation on pre existing conditions, it's effectively the same. You can sign up the day you get sick and have a free ride until then. That's why the CBO scoring was all bullshit.

> Because there's no limitation on pre existing conditions, it's effectively the same. You can sign up the day you get sick and have a free ride until then.

How does that work if you've suffered a catastrophic injury and you're not well enough to sign up until after you've been treated in the hospital for several days?

It's similar, but it doesn't sound like the COBRA thing, where you have the option to retroactively extend your employer's coverage, or not, for a couple of months and you can still visit the hospital the same as you always did (or not) because of the payment and notification grace period. If it turns out you didn't need the insurance, you don't need to pay for it.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#798

Post by sanderjd »

j7ake wrote: post #735
sanderjd wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there's a lot of pedantry in this thread and this topic in general. The point is that people not wanting to work is just so very far from our problem that it is ridiculous to see people harping on it so much. People aren't working because they were furloughed or laid off because aggregate demand is way down, it has nothing to do with the unemployment benefits they're getting. The vast vast majority of tho…

Of course we are all speculating on what people want or will do in this situation. But take a hypothetical continuum of unemployment benefits. At which point will your thesis that "people want to work but are unable" switch to "people aren't working because they're being paid way more to not work? The switch will probably be binary at the individual level but will look like a continuum when looking at the population…

My actual point is that this is an ideologically driven distraction, not a real policy debate.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#799

Post by [deleted] »

mlyle wrote: post #327
greendave wrote: post #144

The problem is that the shelter-in-place rule is already limited in effectiveness due to a very lengthy list of exceptions plus many people not observing the spirit of the rule. Compliance will only drop over time as people see that 1) Their actions are having no obvious impact and 2) There is no clear end in sight. If the primary goal of extending the order is to give local governments time to build out infrastructu…

The stated goal is to decay to 1 infection per million residents so that robust contact tracing works. Back of the envelope math puts that between 6 and 18 months of continued progress of the health order to get it to this level. (60 or so in Santa Clara County ICU == ~6000 infections. ICU occupancy decaying by 40% per month; 0.6^15 months * 6000 = ~3 )

[deleted]

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#800

Post by sjg007 »

imtringued wrote: post #743
nostromo wrote: post #649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hope you’re saving now for your $10m one bedroom condo and your child’s $5m state university education.

nostromo's comment may sound like a joke but the reason why those two things in particular are inflated is the fact that the printed money is only available as a mortgage or student loan. Nobody is buying consumer goods with the printed money and therefore we don't get to see inflation (which by definition only looks at consumer spending). We might get to see "real" inflation if that printed money is used to pay for…

This misses the point that every country is printing money right now and yes some of that money is going directly to unemployment benefits and to paying worker salaries. At least in the USA 🇺🇸 it has...
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