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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

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361–370 of 893 posts

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#361

People forget that there is no law which can put everyone under house arrest. This is all done voluntarily. Why is it ok for people to shop at Walmart and not at their local small business that sells the same goods and is better equipped to enforce social distancing, with customers explicitly opting in to visit the smaller store? If a small business can protect workers and customers, and a comparable large business i…

State and local governments have far greater abilities to issue orders like this than the federal government. What, exactly, is unconstitutional about a city issuing an order that revokes the ability of a business to operate due to a health emergency?

On the surface there's not much constitutional protection for engaging in business but there would be some serious schadenfreude if Wickard v. Filburn showed up to defend individuals from state prosecution for once.

edit:

To expand on this, for an individual's right to do something to be protected from the states that right must be protected under the 14th amendment. Over the years the court has found that the 1st, 2nd, 4th, etc, basically all the big stuff is protected from state infringement under the 14th. In addition to this, for the incorporation of a right to under the 14th to have any teeth to this the court must have ruled that state regulation must pass strict scrutiny to be constitutional, in layman's terms it needs to be limited in scope to the bare minimum and there as to be a damn good reason. Unless you're willing to play some serious mental gymnastics there isn't any real combination of constitutionally protected rights and court rulings that restrict infringement on those rights that result in the ability to run a nail salon or other "clearly not essential" type business. Basically, no the constitution doesn't protect you from this.

That's where civil liberties advocates old nemesis comes in. In Wickard v. Filburn the court ruled that even non-business activity that is fully contained within a state is subject to federal regulation under the interstate commerce clause because it affects market conditions if everyone does it. If this sounds like an end run around the constitution it's because it is. Normally you see this ruling used (I'd love to say "abused" but is it really abuse when it's functioning as intended?) to micro manage how states regulate businesses or go over states' heads and regulate them directly. So it would be a more or less complete 180 to see the ruling used to justify the federal government not only prevent states from regulating but allow people to go about their business without being stopped by state regulation. I think this is highly unlikely but a) it's fun to speculate and b) if the rest of 2020 has been any indication, anything is possible. Also, it should go without saying but this analysis is not exhaustive, there would be more to the issue than this.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

0.88 doesn't buy you very much room. If it creeps up to 1.1, you still don't need many rounds of infection to completely overwhelm the system. 7 rounds of infection (~a month) would result in 10.4x more total patients.

I'm not following your math. On a serial interval of 4, 7 rounds of infection does take a month, but that's only 1.1^7 = 2.

That's new cases though, isn't it? I was summing over the entire "tree" to get the total instead.

If R0=2 (each person infects two more), you have 1 case at time zero, two after the first time step, and four after the next, but the total number of cases is 1+2+4=7, not 2^2.

It's true that people are discharged from the hospital eventually (one way or another), so there's a little extra room from that, but not much.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#363

If I am reading the data correctly, considering total number of cases, and current rates of growth, the Bay Area is doing really well compared to the rest of the USA in terms of preventing the spread. [1] There will inevitably be areas that will recover sooner than others, and I could see the Bay Area being one of those places. How is the Bay Area going to handle that? Are these places going to station cops on county…

This problem generalizes to state-lines as well. Moreover, restrictions are not uniform. For example, San Mateo county restricts movement to within 5 miles of one's residence. Other bay area counties like Santa Clara do not. So legally somebody from Santa Clara county can visit San Mateo county (for exercise), but not the other way around. A well-managed response would include curbs on movement, be it at the state or…

Definitely. A friend had been working in Malaysia and surrounding areas when all this got going. He had to quarantine 2 weeks in Malaysia before he was allowed on a plane back to his home in Amsterdam, and now has to self-quarantine for another 2 weeks there given the airports he passed through. I could easily see similar restrictions. E.g., anybody wanting to enter a Western Pact state might be required to quarantine 2 weeks upon arrival.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#364
post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

+1. Continuing a lockdown of this severity makes no sense. San Francisco has only had 22 Covid deaths. A city the size of SF would be expected to see 5x as many cancer deaths as that in a normal month [1] and 7x as many heart disease deaths [2]. Instead, we're maintaining a policy that discourages people from seeking preventative treatment for these diseases on the basis that we don't want them contracting a less dea…

> A city the size of SF would be expected to see 5x as many cancer deaths as that in a normal month [1] and 7x as many heart disease deaths

This comparison is irrelevant. Cancer and heart disease aren't contagious and don't spread exponentially.

Let's say there were 0 deaths from Covid-19 because there are enough beds and they got lucky enough to save everyone. Would you say that an infinite number of more people die from lightning strikes?

> The lockdown has proven to be excessive.

Because not enough people are dying? I honestly don't understand your logic.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not aware of any lockdowns which are specifically targeted at small retailers while competing large retailers are allowed to be open. Where I am the small coffee shops are closed for walk-in business, but so are the Starbucks; the difference is that small coffee shops are not able to pivot to a centralized delivery platform en masse the way Starbucks is.

I can speak to a few examples specifically. It's planting season now, and high business for nurseries. In Santa Clara County, they're closed by fiat. Lowe's, Home Depot, ACE hardware sell essential things (plumbing supplies, etc), so they get to remain open, in-store nurseries and all. So, if I want tomatoes, I have to brave the crowds at Lowe's instead of hopping out to my local nursery which is rarely densely popul…

I mean, that makes perfect sense. Your local nursery is not selling essential good like you admitted.

What is the logic of letting them be open? It is very difficult to produce a perfect list of all spaces and businesses that might be "safe"; hence the only practical way of doing this is by producing a whitelist of those businesses that can remain open.

Essential services is a great demarcator of that whitelist.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is in no way relevant to my point. You brought up three countries that have nearly eliminated the virus from their land, while overlooking the single most important prerequisite in all three cases. Edit: In other words, we can strive to reduce community transmission, but achieving the specific results found in the three you mentioned would also require a radical change in how we handle our borders.

No it wouldn't. You ignored his point entirely, which is that even if we did manage to further lock down our borders, it does nothing to stop community transmissions. Those countries you listed weren't able to control the virus through strong border control, they did so through strong controls over community transmission. Which should've been obvious, considering the initial transmissions in South Korea came from a c…

>You ignored his point entirely, which is that even if we did manage to further lock down our borders, it does nothing to stop community transmissions.

Your statement on the relationship between border control and non-border community transmission is obvious and irrelevant to my statement. Why are you belaboring the obvious?

>Those countries you listed weren't able to control the virus through strong border control

The topic of the comment I responded to was the rapid near elimination of the virus from a country. This was done in the context of fantastically strong border control, which [during this time frame] is a prerequisite to achieving that goal. Now you have changed the topic to "controlling" the virus, which is a relatively vague term and concept.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#367

I'm surprised we're not seeing plans for some businesses to reopen with restrictions. I think it will be a while before we allow haircuts and manicures again, but I see no reason why we can't increase the types of businesses allowed open. Limiting occupancy, requiring PPE, and enforcing social distancing appear to be reasonable requirements. I hope the politicians and government workers are busy trying to find a midd…

You can start opening things up, it doesn't mean people will go out to eat, get haircuts, visit movie theaters, workout at a gym or travel. As long as the virus is out there and actively spreading, people will voluntarily shelter. Businesses will still go bankrupt as most retail stores and restaurants run at around breakeven in net income. Also there is the liability issue. If we want to get back to normal getting community spread to 0 should be the goal and we need to keep everything locked down to achieve that.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#368
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friend who works at the airport in the Galapagos (GPS) was telling me that no one has gotten paid since the tourism stopped. Luckily she can work on farm, but many can't. The local animal shelter there is now out of food, and the dogs will starve if they don't somehow raise money in the next 3 days or so (@patitasgalapaguenas on instagram, you can donate here [0]). The US is struggling in many ways, but I can't he…

Donated. Cute doggies. Hope your friend and her coworkers are safe.

Thank you so much! They are staying safe but I heard the government is only paying the police there right now, everyone else is on their own right now

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless there's a state-mandated quota on essential businesses, what's stopping a store from adding some essential goods to their inventory and merchandising? This would reduce the burden on other stores, i.e. increasing social distancing in parking lots and within the story. Laws exist with the consent of the governed. When laws are instituted under premises (e.g models, intelligence) that are later proved wrong (e.g…

> Laws exist with the consent of the governed. This is goalpost moving. Of course laws exist by the consent of the governed. Your original post claimed that there was no law, and that businesses should consider litigating to the Supreme Court, relying on pro bono lawyers who "remember their Constitution", despite the complete lack of Constitutional support for your argument.

No law for house arrest. The "consent of the governed" comment was about state emergency powers.

There's no specific argument to litigate until a specific business opens and gets into a legal dispute with a specific state.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#370
post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your reaction to Sweden's COVID track? They didn't shut down daily life, and their hospitals are doing just fine. In fact, COVID cases and deaths have plateaued. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

This is my reaction: "This Japanese Island Lifted Its Coronavirus Lockdown Too Soon and Became a Warning to the World" https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/ Restrictions could start easing if you could manage an outbreak swiftly. This requires: 1) Enough tests that actually worked so you can SPOT an outbreak before it goes 3 weeks. 2) Enough resources in the medical system to handle an actual spike…

I don't know if we're there yet, because the government won't say!
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