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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#41

Post by cactus2093 »

killion wrote: post #2

We are down 50% from the peak of Covid deaths in California. It seems likely we will have one or more days of zero Covid deaths before the end of May. That is the measure I assume they are going for at this point. Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/cali...

This is untrue. We may have plateaued but we haven't yet seen a significant drop from the peak yet. 4 days ago there were 115 deaths, then 93 the next day, then 89 the next, that's as high as the peak you're referring to. Source - daily department of health releases https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020....

The drop you are inferring from your graph appears to be a be a reflection of a noisy data set, and the graph is a week out of date.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#42

Post by _jal »

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

You sound far more confident about a number of those details than I think anyone with expertise are.

> are being fearful

This is a conclusion you can only reach retrospectively.

I'm not arguing that the extension is correct; I'm arguing that your assertions do not provide reason to think it is incorrect.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#43

Post by jhwang5 »

smallgovt wrote: post #22
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> How is it moral to order people to shelter in place when their risk of death is 0.01% for 18-45 year olds The data from your second source indicates that the case fatality rate in New York for 18-45 yr olds is 0.833% (14 deaths in 1705 confirmed cases). Where are you getting 0.01% from?

Food for thought - if say 70% of cases are asymptomatic or mild (and therefore they don't get tested), then NYC's CFR already drops to 0.2% for the bucket you are referring to.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#44

Post by arrty88 »

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

"We can't let the cure be worse than the problem"

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#45

Post by tptacek »

rbritton wrote: post #36
tptacek wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We in fact know very little about the consequences of serious C19 infections in people under 50, and people in their 40s apparently make up a substantial cohort of ICU C19 patients. We also don't know the long-term health implications of a severe C19 case, and there's some evidence to suggest permanent lung damage is one possible outcome. And, even if we didn't know any of those things, avoiding the deaths of people…

At what cost? When do you factor in the additional deaths and other consequences from suicides, domestic violence, increased substance abuse, and so on? There are two sides to the equation.

Perhaps when the data starts showing it.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#46

Post by djrogers »

tptacek wrote: post #20
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

We in fact know very little about the consequences of serious C19 infections in people under 50, and people in their 40s apparently make up a substantial cohort of ICU C19 patients. We also don't know the long-term health implications of a severe C19 case, and there's some evidence to suggest permanent lung damage is one possible outcome. And, even if we didn't know any of those things, avoiding the deaths of people…

Long term health implications have nothing to do with the lockdowns, and extending them has no impact on those theoretical boogey-men.

Lockdowns were intended to 'flatten the curve' so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed. The same number of people will get sick but over a longer period of time. Keeping the lockdowns in full effect will only ensure that those who get disproportionately sick are the ones in critical services and healthcare.

Choosing to violate people's constitutional rights based on hypothetical long term implications is also extremely disconcerting.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#48

Post by thereisnospork »

ars wrote: post #18
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

I've been wondering for a while what the end game is. There seems to only be 3 options: 1: Lockdown forever. 2: Everyone becomes immune. 3: Vaccine. 1 is unrealistic. 3 will take a year. 2 the lockdown is too effective - we need at least some people to get infected, and hospitals to be utilized at a manageable rate. Is there a 4th option I did not think of? Because I can't figure out how they are going to end this. I…

> Is there a 4th option I did not think of? Because I can't figure out how they are going to end this.

Some flavor of mandatory mask/glove/bunny suit wearing and social distancing (e.g. mandatory table-to-table distance at restaurants) would keep the curve flat while allowing a majority of day-to-day life to resume.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#49

Post by primeradical »

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

To anyone reading the comment above, it is extremely poor advice and should not be followed.

Stay at home and shelter in place orders are not solely for the purpose of protecting ones-self from contracting the virus. They also serve to limit the spread from unsuspecting carriers. You can carry and spread the virus unknowingly and this will result in susceptible people contracting it and dying.

The only way we know that shelter in place orders worked is if they feel like an overreaction after this is all over with.

We're all scared and desperately seeking answers and relief. We all want this to be over as soon as possible.

But we must put the public health above all else. This is not the time for egocentric defiance of the recommendations from our leaders.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#50

Post by thomascgalvin »

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> Meanwhile, data is coming out to show that coronavirus has a very low fatality risk to anyone under the age of 50, and to anyone without pre-existing health conditions.

34% of America is aged 50 and over[1]. Almost 40% of America is obese[2], which is a risk factor for COVID-19 complications[3].

> A blanket shutdown does not make any sense when the vulnerable demographic has been clearly identified.

When the "vulnerable demographic" is forty percent of the population, a blanket shutdown makes a lot more sense. We cannot simply consign four out of ten people to severe illness, unknown long-term complications, and/or death.

[1] https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/jchs-housin...

[2] https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/jchs-housin...

[3] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precaut...

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