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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#31

Post by code_chimp »

jamroom wrote: post #11
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

Our society includes people who are over 50 - how do ensure that YOU do not transmit coronavirus to them if you are under 50 and asymptomatic? I know a lot of people are pretty upset but it's not just about YOU. It's about everyone you come in contact with.

I am over 50 and asthmatic - if I feel that I am in danger I am free to self-quarantine. There is no need to impinge on everyone else's freedoms to ensure my safety - I am a big boy and able to take care of my own health decisions.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#32

Post by quotemstr »

wiredone wrote: post #19
jamroom wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our society includes people who are over 50 - how do ensure that YOU do not transmit coronavirus to them if you are under 50 and asymptomatic? I know a lot of people are pretty upset but it's not just about YOU. It's about everyone you come in contact with.

There seems to a ton of people with long term organ damage from this thing. Brushing it aside as a non event for everyone else is dangerously misinformed.

> There seems to a ton of people with long term organ damage from this thing

Are there? I've seen only a few isolated anecdotes. In any illness affecting tens of thousands, there will be a few who experience particularly severe complications. It's not useful to portray these complicated and severe outliers as being typical. Right now, the data show that the vast majority of people who contract this virus fight it off without experiencing any symptoms whatsoever and suffer no long-term damage at all, which is exactly what you'd expect from a typical virus infection.

People keep claiming that this virus has exotic and dangerous features atypical of coronaviruses and viruses in general: I've seen everything from claims of immediate reinfection to 30-day incubation periods to long-term gonad damage. None of these claims has been substantiated on the basis of anything but isolated (and frequently unsourced) anecdotes, and a very strong Bayesian prior should be that this virus works like any other and doesn't actually do these random and exotic things.

There seems to be a contingent of very online people who want to sow as much fear and anxiety over this thing as possible, even if it means presenting a warped view of the data. We should reject this endeavor.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#33

Post by chrisseaton »

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

I don't think it was a 'meme' - if you're thinking it was just something on Facebook or something like that. It was and still is a government goal informing their policy.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#34

Post by quicklime »

jaywalk wrote: post #14
jamroom wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our society includes people who are over 50 - how do ensure that YOU do not transmit coronavirus to them if you are under 50 and asymptomatic? I know a lot of people are pretty upset but it's not just about YOU. It's about everyone you come in contact with.

THEY are the ones who need to take extra precautions.

No, your right to shed virus particles ends at the tip of my nose.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#35

Post by tptacek »

jaywalk wrote: post #14
jamroom wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our society includes people who are over 50 - how do ensure that YOU do not transmit coronavirus to them if you are under 50 and asymptomatic? I know a lot of people are pretty upset but it's not just about YOU. It's about everyone you come in contact with.

THEY are the ones who need to take extra precautions.

Thankfully, you appear to be overwhelmingly outvoted in this "let's set up a peeing section for the swimming pool" position. Lockdown measures and the activist governors pursuing them are, for the moment, overwhelmingly popular --- the population as a whole is strongly more concerned that lockdowns will end too early, and strongly more worried that they will suffer health consequences from C19 than that they'll suffer economic consequences from lockdown.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#36

Post by rbritton »

tptacek wrote: post #20
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

We in fact know very little about the consequences of serious C19 infections in people under 50, and people in their 40s apparently make up a substantial cohort of ICU C19 patients. We also don't know the long-term health implications of a severe C19 case, and there's some evidence to suggest permanent lung damage is one possible outcome. And, even if we didn't know any of those things, avoiding the deaths of people…

At what cost? When do you factor in the additional deaths and other consequences from suicides, domestic violence, increased substance abuse, and so on? There are two sides to the equation.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#37

Post by liuliu »

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

The second link is death per 100,000 people (not death of confirmed cases), that, for 18-45, is 14.21 per 100,000 (0.014%). There are confirmed cases of 1705.26 per 100,000 for 18-45. Thus, the death for 18-45 over confirmed cases is 0.83%, much higher than flu for 18-49, which is 0.02%: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html. Noted that the new antibody tests showed much higher cases than the confirmed cases. But the 0.01% number you cited is wrong. Please fix.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#38

Post by glofish »

smallgovt wrote: post #22
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> How is it moral to order people to shelter in place when their risk of death is 0.01% for 18-45 year olds The data from your second source indicates that the case fatality rate in New York for 18-45 yr olds is 0.833% (14 deaths in 1705 confirmed cases). Where are you getting 0.01% from?

the number of cases (infections) is at least an order of magnitude higher than the reported numbers.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#39

Post by nkkollaw »

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

1 more month will probably put a huge number of businesses out of business.

Is there a reason why they'd do something like this, where anyone who looks will see that it's not at all needed?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#40

Post by smallgovt »

throwlaplace wrote: post #17
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

>How is it moral to order people to shelter in place when their risk of death is 0.01% for 18-45 year olds How brave of you to sacrifice people other than yourself. Everyone advocating for this should have to forfeit %50 of their earnings for the next 10 years to fund the medical care of all of those affected. That way at least everyone has some skin in the game.

To be fair, the cost of COVID medical care pales in comparison to the likely impact on future earnings these shutdowns are having.

If it's strictly about money, we should cease shutdowns immediately. But, it's not. People are dying.

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