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Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

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Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#41

Post by arcticbull »

peteretep wrote: post #36
arcticbull wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American tried this a few years ago with "more legroom throughout coach" back in 2005-ish and it nearly bankrupted them. People flatly and absolutely refuse to pay more than the bare minimum to fly places. This will not change once the pandemic panic dies down. I'd pay a bit more for transcontinental flying but, like, I'm very much in the minority and I fly enough to get free upgrades most of the time anyways.

> People flatly and absolutely refuse to pay more than the bare minimum to fly places This is too facile a take, given the existence of Business and Premium Economy. I think the Asian low-cost carriers probably have it right with very very cheap basic seats, and then the ability to eke out the consumer surplus with reasonably priced “upgrades”. Air Asia’s “hot seats” have a tiny bit more leg room and are charged acco…

Yes and no. It depends who's paying. For the most part leisure travelers aren't going to pay for anything other that basic economy. The basic economy experiment bears out that thesis: legacy airlines wanted passengers to pay more than LCC fares they had to compete with -- so they created an ostensibly painful and unattractive product in BE to encourage people to pay a tiny amount more for anything. Ultimately nobody did, and they felt they had to remove those restrictions -- and indeed most basic economy restrictions have been since lifted. The whole experiment ultimately cost airlines hundreds of millions of dollars.

Flight aggregators actually switched to providing more of this comfort information (especially Google Flights) specifically because of BE but it wasn't enough to save BE.

Business is paid for by businesses, and premium economy is paid for by, uh, cheap businesses. I think PE was brought in so in times of austerity businesses could avoid negative press associated with buying business-class airfare but still wanted to provide their employees a modicum of comfort so they could hit the ground running off the back of their flights.

LCCs are interesting, because I would argue they support my case: people won't pay more than the bare minimum fare for a flight. They may pay small amounts for comfort upgrades but the butt in seat is a commodity. Hence, legacy carriers who try and cover their costs of 50% less density in coach are going to get their lunch eaten by LCCs who don't as the pricing disparity grows larger.

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#42

Post by grawprog »

Pfhreak wrote: post #2

I think about the depression era behaviors that stuck around in my grandparents as a good example of what to expect coming out of this pandemic. They learned certain things out of necessity and it changed their worldview on everything from darning their own socks to what ingredients they'd use in their cooking. I expect that many of us will carry similar behavioral scars for years or decades later - ensuring we have…

>ensuring we have masks on hand, unconsciously observing social distancing, being wary around crowded spaces like airplanes and airports

Wow it only took 3 months of brainwashing to permanently change your subconcious behaviour and make you paranoid of other people and the outside world? I sure hope most of humanity is at least slightly stronger willed then that and doesn't now live like a scared rabbit.

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#43

Post by qubex »

meheleventyone wrote: post #23
qubex wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a good point, but I’m also starting to speculate whether, when the infection rates and (crucially) hospital occupation rates diminish, we will see some people deliberately seeking to get infected so as to gain immunity whilst the risks are low, specifically, when they can be reasonably certain that if they experience severe symptoms they’ll have a place in an ICU to receive intensive care. This might sound uns…

Seems like a pretty risky thing to do. Not only to yourself since you don’t know in advance if you’re going to have symptoms or not (risking permanent injury and death) but to your family and wider society. It would only take a few people doing this and not adequately self isolating for the weeks required to get better to start spreading the virus again quickly.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m most definitely not advocating it. But keep in mind there’s folks considering shooting up bleach because Podium Dementor mused about it ‘sarcastically’. People’s cognitive processes surprise, sometimes.

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#44

Post by _iyig »

open-source-ux wrote: post #5

I have a hunch that once the severity of the pandemic eases, we may see an increase in car journeys for holidays, particularly for continental Europe. Why? Many people will remain cautious about travelling with strangers in closely packed airplane cabins or even train carriages. The alternative is to travel by car. But people can only tolerate a certain amount of time in the car and so this may affect where people tr…

>I have a hunch that once the severity of the pandemic eases, we may see an increase in car journeys for holidays, particularly for continental Europe. >But people can only tolerate a certain amount of time in the car and so this may affect where people travel.

As an American, I would routinely drive 3+ hours to visit family in the same state, or 6+ hours across several states from my childhood home to university. Growing up in the Midwest, I got used to measuring distance in hours of highway travel time. I wouldn't make those trips every week or every month, but 5-6 times in a year would not have been unusual. I know many people who drove cross-country when moving from East to West Coast (a multi-day road trip), or vice-versa. Road trips in general are firmly rooted in the American experience, as captured in films such as 'National Lampoon's Vacation' or 'Little Miss Sunshine.'

Perhaps post-pandemic Europe will see its own road trip renaissance, complete with motels, minivans, and roadside attractions?

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#45

Post by peteretep »

arcticbull wrote: post #41
peteretep wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People flatly and absolutely refuse to pay more than the bare minimum to fly places This is too facile a take, given the existence of Business and Premium Economy. I think the Asian low-cost carriers probably have it right with very very cheap basic seats, and then the ability to eke out the consumer surplus with reasonably priced “upgrades”. Air Asia’s “hot seats” have a tiny bit more leg room and are charged acco…

Yes and no. It depends who's paying. For the most part leisure travelers aren't going to pay for anything other that basic economy. The basic economy experiment bears out that thesis: legacy airlines wanted passengers to pay more than LCC fares they had to compete with -- so they created an ostensibly painful and unattractive product in BE to encourage people to pay a tiny amount more for anything . Ultimately nobody…

> Business is paid for by businesses, and premium economy is paid for by, uh, cheap businesses.

I think this is probably wrong, but admit I don’t have the numbers to back it up. Last few years I’ve flown ~100 sectors in J and ~20 in PE, mostly intercontinental, and my impression is that there’s a strong showing of leisure travellers, based on the large number of couples and families. Could be expats with decent packages tho.

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#46

Post by qubex »

tshanmu wrote: post #14
qubex wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a good point, but I’m also starting to speculate whether, when the infection rates and (crucially) hospital occupation rates diminish, we will see some people deliberately seeking to get infected so as to gain immunity whilst the risks are low, specifically, when they can be reasonably certain that if they experience severe symptoms they’ll have a place in an ICU to receive intensive care. This might sound uns…

What's with WHO statements that there is no evidence of immunity for covid19 infected?

As others have noted, “not confirmed” does not mean that we have to take all that we know about viruses and immunology and trash it (yet). In all likelihood in due course it shall be confirmed. There’s no reason to believe this virus is fundamentally different from any other.

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#47

Post by saagarjha »

gambiting wrote: post #34
samatman wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I expect to walk straight to the sink and wash my hands, as soon as I get indoors, for the rest of my life.

...and you didn't do that already? I'm not being funny, but since I was a little kid I was always taught that as soon as you get home you take off your shoes and go wash your hands. I actually do the same at work where the first thing I do is go wash my hands after arriving at the office. I think I assumed everyone did the same already.

A lot of people wear their shoes on their bed and don’t wash their hands after using the restroom. Sadly, I think your assumption is off the mark :(

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#48

Post by californical »

samatman wrote: post #10
Pfhreak wrote: post #2

I think about the depression era behaviors that stuck around in my grandparents as a good example of what to expect coming out of this pandemic. They learned certain things out of necessity and it changed their worldview on everything from darning their own socks to what ingredients they'd use in their cooking. I expect that many of us will carry similar behavioral scars for years or decades later - ensuring we have…

Personally, I expect to walk straight to the sink and wash my hands, as soon as I get indoors, for the rest of my life.

I'm right with you -- I used to only wash my hands when I felt like I could've touched something gross, or when using the bathroom. And before cooking for other people. It wasn't something I really thought of too often.

Now, anytime I do anything, I wash my hands. Feels weird not to. Don't know if that is ever going away since I'm doing it instinctually already now

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#49

Post by peteretep »

arcticbull wrote: post #41
peteretep wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People flatly and absolutely refuse to pay more than the bare minimum to fly places This is too facile a take, given the existence of Business and Premium Economy. I think the Asian low-cost carriers probably have it right with very very cheap basic seats, and then the ability to eke out the consumer surplus with reasonably priced “upgrades”. Air Asia’s “hot seats” have a tiny bit more leg room and are charged acco…

Yes and no. It depends who's paying. For the most part leisure travelers aren't going to pay for anything other that basic economy. The basic economy experiment bears out that thesis: legacy airlines wanted passengers to pay more than LCC fares they had to compete with -- so they created an ostensibly painful and unattractive product in BE to encourage people to pay a tiny amount more for anything . Ultimately nobody…

> LCCs are interesting, because I would argue they support my case

I think they bolster equally well the hypothesis that people will pay more, but they are guided to the cheapest option by Google Flights and so on, and then don’t price compare add-ons. Hard to know without hard data.

Re: Coronavirus will change airlines and the way we fly

#50

Post by arcticbull »

peteretep wrote: post #45
arcticbull wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and no. It depends who's paying. For the most part leisure travelers aren't going to pay for anything other that basic economy. The basic economy experiment bears out that thesis: legacy airlines wanted passengers to pay more than LCC fares they had to compete with -- so they created an ostensibly painful and unattractive product in BE to encourage people to pay a tiny amount more for anything . Ultimately nobody…

> Business is paid for by businesses, and premium economy is paid for by, uh, cheap businesses. I think this is probably wrong, but admit I don’t have the numbers to back it up. Last few years I’ve flown ~100 sectors in J and ~20 in PE, mostly intercontinental, and my impression is that there’s a strong showing of leisure travellers, based on the large number of couples and families. Could be expats with decent packa…

I'd love to know for sure too, I'll report back if I can find anything conclusive!
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