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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#501

Post by vanniv »

edmundsauto wrote: post #220
vanniv wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really have enough karma to be able to waste responding, but I'll make an exception for you, since you asked more politely than most. First, there's not much secrecy involved. It isn't a secret at all that, Hollywood, the American mainstream media, and the political left are all on the same side. It's been obvious for 30 years now. What we are currently living through is a left-authoritarian consolidation of…

It's interesting to see the effect of a strong confirmation bias at play. I appreciate you taking the time to respond, and would challenge you to think through your perceptions if you started from a different assumption. Narratives drive how we see the world. In concrete, objective, measurable terms -- what do you mean by a "left-authoritarian consolidation of power"? From my perspective, the right is the one really…

[flagged]

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#502

Post by [deleted] »

arcticbull wrote: post #476
greedo wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is crystal clear from the WHO: ""There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."" They were prompted to issue this because some people were touting this idea of immunity being granted perpetually and allowing people to safely return to work. "Broadly speaking, a positive test for antibodies means you're pretty likely immune a…

No greedo, that's not the correct interpretation. There is currently no evidence of X does not mean X is not true. It just means there's no evidence of X being directly true yet . Nothing I said contradicts the WHO. What I said was that we can reasonably infer from similar coronaviruses (including both more and less severe ones that are up to 90% genetically identical) that immunity is conferred. Also from other viru…

[deleted]

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#503

Post by arcticbull »

greedo wrote: post #486
arcticbull wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No greedo, that's not the correct interpretation. There is currently no evidence of X does not mean X is not true. It just means there's no evidence of X being directly true yet . Nothing I said contradicts the WHO. What I said was that we can reasonably infer from similar coronaviruses (including both more and less severe ones that are up to 90% genetically identical) that immunity is conferred. Also from other viru…

This isn't how science works. "there's no reason for you to continue with the messaging when all evidence points to immunity being conferred for some duration of time." You must have a reading problem since the WHO has said there's no evidence. None. That's crystal clear, but it doesn't align with your opinion that this is just like the flu in seriousness. There's no reason for you to continue with the messaging when…

All evidence points to (i.e. implies) but does not prove conclusively yet because studies are under way. Is there some disconnect in your reading of this? This is absolutely how science works. You identify something likely to happen due to a preponderance of evidence then you attempt to prove or disprove it by study. This is called inductive reasoning, and it's the basis for what's known as a hypothesis. An experiment or study is then conducted to prove or disprove your hypothesis.

You have not brought any evidence to the table. If there is a study that says SARS-COV-2, unlike the majority of (all?) viruses and all coronaviruses that results in immune response sufficient to clear the disease that then immediately dissipates, I'll certainly accept the premise.

Until then, a preponderance of evidence points (or suggests without proving conclusively) otherwise.

> That's crystal clear, but it doesn't align with your opinion that this is just like the flu in seriousness.

That is not my opinion. My opinion is that it's milder than the flu for young people (it is) [1], and much worse than the flu for older folks (it is) -- no citation needed, I assume. To suggest otherwise would be to ignore the evidence you claim to hold sacrosanct.

[1] https://time.com/5816239/children-coronavirus/

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#504

Post by IAmEveryone »

redis_mlc wrote: post #484
elihu wrote: post #463

Some possibilities: there is widespread infection from a common source around the same time, and many of those "asymptomatic" inmates aren't going to stay that way; the test has false positives; the population of this prison is comprised mostly of people who tend to be asymptomatic carriers (for example, if most prisoners are in their early 20's); COVID-19 has a lot more asymptomatic carriers than we thought.

Or, you know, stop rejecting data that doesn't reinforce your view that the sky is falling. Because it isn't. Around half of SF has been exposed to corona at this point, yet the hospitals are basically empty and the governor gave away 500 ventilators last month because we don't need many. HN is about as accepting of scientific data as Fox news at this point. If you're one of the sheeple that believes the falsehood th…

> Around half of SF

Yeah, that doesn't work. If 50% of SF had been infected and 22 died the fatality rate would be 22 / (0.5 * 800,000) = 0.0055%.

With that fatality rate, 11,500 / 0.0055% = 209 million need to be infected in New York City to explain their death count, or about 25 times the population.

More intuitively, because you seem to prefer arguments without actual numbers: if half of the population in SF have been infected, that limits the worst case at double what SF is experiencing. But it is entirely obvious that many regions all over the world are doing far worse, disproving that notion.

So here's your question:

- how do you make these numbers work?

And one extra:

- Do you see the irony of complaining about a lack of scientific rigour in a post that is almost completely emotional? I. e. "sheeple", "Fox News", "basically empty"...

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#505

Post by davidbanham »

Zhenya wrote: post #489
dotancohen wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost > heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled > air. Big crowds in small spaces. How could the prison be much worse than the cruise ship you just described?

OP is describing a prison.

That's the joke.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#506

Post by andrei_says_ »

jwlake wrote: post #137

One of the super-interesting things here, is that apparently everyone was in the specific window where they test positive for the virus. This implies the population was recently infected, had not been previously infected, and it spread almost completely within a tight window. This implies a shocking high R(effective) for that population. In 2 weeks we'll have super interesting data one way of the other on the CFR.

Are these tests covid-19 specific or are they based on IgM/IgG?

> The results of the tests for IgG, IgA, and IgM levels are usually evaluated together. Abnormal test results typically indicate that there is something affecting the immune system and suggest the need for further testing. Immunoglobulins testing is not diagnostic but can be a strong indicator of a disease or condition. There are a number of conditions that are associated with increased and decreased immunoglobulins.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#507

Post by Drdrdrq »

auntienomen wrote: post #308
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW I think that article shows her infecting people for only 15 years (1900-1915), then being quarantined for a further 23.

A post-mortem confirmed that her gallbladder was loaded with the bacteria that cause typhoid.

Wikipedia mentions that autopsy might not have been performed.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#508

Post by dpau »

barbegal wrote: post #482
pacala wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The spike has all but receded. Maybe be we're just having 3 flues in one year. Reason enough to stop the world?

The spike receding is due to incomplete data rather than a reduction in deaths. Deaths (especially in the current circumstances) can take a couple of weeks to get registered properly.

also need to take into account the decline in deaths from other factors due to quarantines, social distancing, and improved hygiene. less driving, less spread of other infectious diseases, etc.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#509

Post by Drdrdrq »

cies wrote: post #190
FrojoS wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this for the US? Do you have a link for the source?

the chart is from ft.com, the news paper

Red line, nearly transparent old data, no link to source data... What's not to like? :) /s

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#510

Post by watwut »

djsumdog wrote: post #459
Fjolsvith wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A prison is very much like a cruise ship from a viral perspective. Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled air. Big crowds in small spaces.

But in prisons you spend way more time isolated. There is less freedom of travel, and I'd assume they'd be less physical contact (although maybe more if you considered shared showers).

They share cells. They move around at set times. They are not isolated.

The soap is expensive, they don't have it and masks are not allowed.

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