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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#481

Post by djsumdog »

jbritton wrote: post #87
ivanhoe wrote: post #52

I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…

I have been wondering about the effect of the degree of initial infection. I kind of assume the virus grows exponentially inside the body and would dwarf the initial constant. If a low initial dose affects the severity of the disease, I think that would be incredibly useful to know. I also wish there was info on percentage of infection via fomites vs inhalation.

I remember one of the health experts in a Sam Harris podcast saying in an interview the dosage affects the severity and that this is seen in some other viruses (though I don't recall which ones). That's one reason doctors and nurses might be getting hit so hard, due to the continual exposure.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#482

Post by barbegal »

pacala wrote: post #468
GuB-42 wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is for Europe if you are interested. There are charts for excess morality by country, by age, and by year. https://www.euromomo.eu/ There is a very noticeable spike in the worst hit countries: Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands and the UK. The cumulative excess deaths for all Europe in the last two months matches the COVID-19 reported deaths (around 100000).

The spike has all but receded. Maybe be we're just having 3 flues in one year. Reason enough to stop the world?

The spike receding is due to incomplete data rather than a reduction in deaths. Deaths (especially in the current circumstances) can take a couple of weeks to get registered properly.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#483

Post by djsumdog »

giardini wrote: post #416

The Reuters article is not useful. It doesn't tell us the type of tests being done, and certainly says nothing about false positives. Like most other articles, this article is what I call "bullshit" but John Ionnidis calls: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science": https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-da... Dr. Ioannidis on Why We Don't Have Reliable Data Surrounding COVID-19: https://www.youtube…

I was doing stuff with the Johns Hopkins data and it has all kinds problems with it (not to mention the format is terrible; time series as columns?!). They also tacked on the retroactive New York cases to the end to the time series data. I did a post on it:

https://battlepenguin.com/tech/fighting-with-the-data/

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#484

Post by redis_mlc »

elihu wrote: post #463

Some possibilities: there is widespread infection from a common source around the same time, and many of those "asymptomatic" inmates aren't going to stay that way; the test has false positives; the population of this prison is comprised mostly of people who tend to be asymptomatic carriers (for example, if most prisoners are in their early 20's); COVID-19 has a lot more asymptomatic carriers than we thought.

Or, you know, stop rejecting data that doesn't reinforce your view that the sky is falling. Because it isn't.

Around half of SF has been exposed to corona at this point, yet the hospitals are basically empty and the governor gave away 500 ventilators last month because we don't need many.

HN is about as accepting of scientific data as Fox news at this point.

If you're one of the sheeple that believes the falsehood that corona is the end of the world, please ask me some questions.

AMA.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#485

Post by djsumdog »

greedo wrote: post #465
arcticbull wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah my old friend greedo. That's how it normally works, this time could be different, but we have no reason to believe that. Generally for as long as you show antibody response you won't be re-infected because that's what antibodies do . The link I provided to the study I referenced was specifically for the purpose of, and I quote: "to assess SARS patients’ risk for future reinfection." "To be clear, most experts do t…

We have no idea how long lived the antibodies we develop in response to SARS-CoV-2 last. And obviously, an initial infection to COVID-19 will generate antibodies that will immunize the patient, as long as the antibodies persist. Don't you think that if this was a foregone conclusion, we'd be able to demonstrate that? Isn't it odd, that with people having been infected and recovered months ago, that no one is saying h…

but it would go against everything we know about viruses and our adaptive immune systems. I know there are some vaccines with lower take rates. Hep B requires 3 injections and only has a 60% change of generating antibodies.

But an immune response from an actual virus should last for at least a few years. There are situations where you can get reinfected later in life if you're not exposed or given booster shots (likes Shingles).

Is there evidences that our adaptive immune system only generates short lived antibodies, and for what families of viruses?

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#486

Post by greedo »

arcticbull wrote: post #476
greedo wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is crystal clear from the WHO: ""There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."" They were prompted to issue this because some people were touting this idea of immunity being granted perpetually and allowing people to safely return to work. "Broadly speaking, a positive test for antibodies means you're pretty likely immune a…

No greedo, that's not the correct interpretation. There is currently no evidence of X does not mean X is not true. It just means there's no evidence of X being directly true yet . Nothing I said contradicts the WHO. What I said was that we can reasonably infer from similar coronaviruses (including both more and less severe ones that are up to 90% genetically identical) that immunity is conferred. Also from other viru…

This isn't how science works.

"there's no reason for you to continue with the messaging when all evidence points to immunity being conferred for some duration of time."

You must have a reading problem since the WHO has said there's no evidence. None. That's crystal clear, but it doesn't align with your opinion that this is just like the flu in seriousness.

There's no reason for you to continue with the messaging when your opinion is continually shown to lack even the slightest rigor in thinking. You're continually cherrypicking the most favorable reports and dismissing anything that conflicts with your opinion. As Marcellus Wallace once said, 'that sting you're feeling? It's cognitive bias.'

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#487

Post by amscanne »

cies wrote: post #30
marcell wrote: post #3

I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...

I did similar calculations, and found the institutions in charge give us very unreliable data. The term "corona case" is very, very, ambiguous and cannot the understood as such without a detailed explanation on how the counting was done. Thanks for sharing. I found the peek in all-case mortality also very interesting, because that way counting is much more unambiguous: dead is dead. They showed a clear diversion from…

That chart is funny. The title is “unprecedented spike”, but it just shows that such outliers have occurred regularly.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#488

Post by greedo »

djsumdog wrote: post #485
greedo wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have no idea how long lived the antibodies we develop in response to SARS-CoV-2 last. And obviously, an initial infection to COVID-19 will generate antibodies that will immunize the patient, as long as the antibodies persist. Don't you think that if this was a foregone conclusion, we'd be able to demonstrate that? Isn't it odd, that with people having been infected and recovered months ago, that no one is saying h…

but it would go against everything we know about viruses and our adaptive immune systems. I know there are some vaccines with lower take rates. Hep B requires 3 injections and only has a 60% change of generating antibodies. But an immune response from an actual virus should last for at least a few years. There are situations where you can get reinfected later in life if you're not exposed or given booster shots (like…

This should be something that can/will be resolved by testing. I find it unusual that no medical authority is going on record as saying there's any long term immunity granted by infection, and that the WHO is being extremely clear in the lack of evidence to support such a conclusion.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#489

Post by Zhenya »

dotancohen wrote: post #453
Fjolsvith wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A prison is very much like a cruise ship from a viral perspective. Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled air. Big crowds in small spaces.

> Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost > heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled > air. Big crowds in small spaces. How could the prison be much worse than the cruise ship you just described?

OP is describing a prison.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#490

Post by AlexCoventry »

newacct583 wrote: post #194
joe_the_user wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your sheet is interesting. Looking at it, the IFR varies from 1.66% down to .11% and the 0.11% is for the Santa Clara, which many considered rather suspect. The 1.66%, otoh, seems reasonably in line or at least compatible with what's been observed in Korea and elsewhere. Given age is going to skew things a good deal, it seems like a picture is emerging but not that new a picture. An IFR of even 1% is pretty bad, espe…

> An IFR of even 1% is pretty bad To be clear: it would be the most dangerous general epidemic disease since the advent of vaccination, and by a significant amount. You need to go back to measles and polio to find general population outbreaks that were more lethal.

> since the advent of vaccination

What do you mean? There were vaccines in 1918.

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