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The Changing World Order

principles.com

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Re: The Changing World Order

#51

Post by dehrmann »

ipnon wrote: post #12
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Note, Japan's ascension to the largest economy in the world was also "guaranteed" near the end of the Cold War. We can all see plainly how such claims have played out. You have to admit that the possibility of a global hegemony is more likely today than ever in modern history. An unlikely event, however, is still unlikely, no matter the rate at which it increases in likelihood. Our prerogative now is to carefully mon…

Interestingly, Japan ended up going down a low-growth path in part due to demographics--lots of old people, not many immigrants. China's former one child policy and a preference for boys set the stage for stagnation in 10-20 years. China just has 10x the population of Japan.

https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-...

Re: The Changing World Order

#52

Post by icelancer »

dehrmann wrote: post #16

Worth mentioning Pure Alpha was down 20% in Q1. Someone else observed Ray Dalio has been too busy building his brand as a financial sage (cough cough) and either not keeping his eyes on the road or he just got lucky in 2008. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/bridgewat...

...or he didn't plan for the pandemic and got wiped out like most everyone else? It doesn't have to be Ray's fault for not being prescient.

Re: The Changing World Order

#53

Post by icelancer »

seibelj wrote: post #25
DennisP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

I’m just not impressed by what he writes about in regards to “universal principles of world history”. His credentials don’t make me assume everything he writes is true and what he writes is long winded and obvious.

He would be the first to tell you to do your own research. Not sure why you attribute prophecy to Ray's writings; he has repeatedly said to consider all information.

I'd read his books on debt cycles. It's novel thinking. Not necessarily correct, but fairly well-researched and presents data in a different view. Nowhere does he say to take the advice as gospel.

Re: The Changing World Order

#54

Post by prostheticvamp »

I couldn’t tolerate this writing long enough to get through more than half the article. There’s the “history is cyclical” trope, the “I have learned how to read history” repeated self-aggrandizement without any specifics, despite going on long enough to repeat himself, and really obvious statements meant to read like profundity (“when there’s great inequality of wealth, there will be social tensions”, paraphrasing only slightly.)

I read a book by him once. It was short and vapid and full of pseudo-profundity. It was cheap and highly rated on Amazon, so I’d given it a try. I didn’t realize he was banking on his name as an investor. Now I understand why anyone would bother reading his writing once, but not why they would read it twice.

Re: The Changing World Order

#55

Post by jarsbe »

adaisadais wrote: post #22

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read. I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China. The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are…

> The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture

I'd argue it's being the global reserve currency not culture.

Re: The Changing World Order

#56

Post by bhupy »

fbelzile wrote: post #28
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

> The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and China's economic prowess will be severely undermined. The US technically can, but then how many Americans would be able to buy the $2999 iPhone (for example) to keep Apple's current valuation?

I'm not sure that the West can move manufacturing back home, but I can see manufacturing moving to the next poorest country, in perpetuity. China's standard of living is increasing, and it will eventually be as economical to outsource work to China as it is to outsource labor to Japan or South Korea.

Instead, I can see the world gradually shifting manufacturing to the next cheapest labor pool until there is none left, and then the ensuing equilibrium would have diversified supply chains, with any concentration largely being a function of 1) access to natural resources, and 2) access to expertise.

Re: The Changing World Order

#57

Post by taylortrusty »

tryptophan wrote: post #37
viburnum wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know successful hedge funds profit more from insider trading than from any kind of analytical wizardry, right?

Lol. Dalio is too big to bother with insider trading. With $160bill under management, that leaves like what, ~50 companies he can't just buy outright in the entire world? Please stop watching Billions and thinking it represents anything close to reality.

Billions is absolutely based on reality. Steve Cohen / SAC Capital.

Re: The Changing World Order

#58

Post by cscurmudgeon »

fbelzile wrote: post #28
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

> The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and China's economic prowess will be severely undermined. The US technically can, but then how many Americans would be able to buy the $2999 iPhone (for example) to keep Apple's current valuation?

It will move to places like India and Vietnam and other countries that are more open and transparent but also Cheap.

It was accelerating before the pandemic.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3045141/c...

Re: The Changing World Order

#59

Post by dang »

sremani wrote: post #38
plainOldText wrote: post #19

I'm currently reading Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World by Peter Zeihan. [1] The book discusses the upcoming world order from a geopolitical perspective and gives original insight into potential developments. For example, I wasn't aware the US Navy has been securing the maritime shipping lanes, thus boosting global trade; and if that stops, well, you can imagine the implications. [1] ht…

Zeihan and George Friedman are really good. After getting perspective from reading them, prepared to be annoyed by geopolitical commentary on HN.

Generic dissing of other commenters just adds noise to HN. If you know more than others, why not share some of what you know so we all can learn?

(Edit: I originally wrote "one of the worst ways to add noise". That was overkill; it gets worse.)

Re: The Changing World Order

#60

Post by baybal2 »

seibelj wrote: post #30
cscurmudgeon wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are pretty scary. China has scary levels of wealth gap too. I think it is probably has more. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/04/06/income-inequali... > The U.S. has continued to elect inept and crony politicians who wish to look backward instead of bring the nation forward China is perceived to much more corrupt than the US. It is not even a competit…

It’s amazing that someone who has a deep nuanced view of American politics and critiques the minutia of American current events from the inside, then blindly believes vague propaganda from China (“China united and strong! Great and competent leader!”). Super common perspective from upper-middle class Americans who argue on HN and Reddit. If you don’t live in China, don’t speak Chinese, didn’t grow up in China, have n…

Seconding this opinion.

China may need no help from US to jeopardise its ascendancy.

So far, China's progress came at a greatest expense of its political establishment.

For long, people have expected that at some point the people in power will decide that they need to put a leash on the country that gets too far ahead of its political leadership, and prevent it from getting "too successful" for them to manage.

They way Xi's administration not simply acting on that, but like tripling and quadrupling down on it in the last few years is the biggest proof that they have passed that point.

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