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The Changing World Order

principles.com

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Re: The Changing World Order

#21

Post by DennisP »

seibelj wrote: post #15

Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths. Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him. I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social str…

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

Re: The Changing World Order

#22

Post by adaisadais »

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan

Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read.

I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China.

The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are pretty scary. The U.S. has continued to elect inept and crony politicians who wish to look backward instead of bring the nation forward.

Re: The Changing World Order

#23

Post by hackingthenews »

seibelj wrote: post #15

Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths. Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him. I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social str…

I agree, but I find his methodology a lot more refreshing than other similar opinion pieces, who barely tries to look at data or give context to their claims (history).

Re: The Changing World Order

#24

Post by viburnum »

DennisP wrote: post #21
seibelj wrote: post #15

Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths. Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him. I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social str…

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

You know successful hedge funds profit more from insider trading than from any kind of analytical wizardry, right?

Re: The Changing World Order

#25

Post by seibelj »

DennisP wrote: post #21
seibelj wrote: post #15

Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths. Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him. I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social str…

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

I’m just not impressed by what he writes about in regards to “universal principles of world history”. His credentials don’t make me assume everything he writes is true and what he writes is long winded and obvious.

Re: The Changing World Order

#26

Post by cscurmudgeon »

adaisadais wrote: post #22

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read. I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China. The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are…

> The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are pretty scary.

China has scary levels of wealth gap too. I think it is probably has more.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/04/06/income-inequali...

> The U.S. has continued to elect inept and crony politicians who wish to look backward instead of bring the nation forward

China is perceived to much more corrupt than the US. It is not even a competition. This index is not perfect but this is the closest we have to measuring corruption uniformly across different systems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

If the US is declining and China is ascending, why do we so many Chinese PhDs students (many of them my friends and hate going back) who want to stay back in the US with many years of wait time?

https://www.boundless.com/blog/visa-bulletin/

Let us please stick to facts and data.

(All the falsifiable statements in this parent comment are false but for some reason it is on top.)

Re: The Changing World Order

#27

Post by option »

adaisadais wrote: post #22

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read. I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China. The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are…

Agree (sadly) about the decline of US. But for new hegemony look elsewhere other than China. China is a dictatorship and they inevitably fail or reform, and right now China is not heading towards reform. Also, have you seen wealth gap in China?

Re: The Changing World Order

#28

Post by fbelzile »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

> The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and China's economic prowess will be severely undermined.

The US technically can, but then how many Americans would be able to buy the $2999 iPhone (for example) to keep Apple's current valuation?

Re: The Changing World Order

#29

Post by basch »

adaisadais wrote: post #22

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read. I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China. The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are…

What does declining mean in this context? Getting worse? More rudderless? Not improving as quickly? Overvalued? The US could be improving and be overvalued at the same time.

There is still a lot of innovation coming out of the US despite it maybe being a bit inefficient.

Re: The Changing World Order

#30

Post by seibelj »

cscurmudgeon wrote: post #26
adaisadais wrote: post #22

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read. I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China. The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are…

> The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are pretty scary. China has scary levels of wealth gap too. I think it is probably has more. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/04/06/income-inequali... > The U.S. has continued to elect inept and crony politicians who wish to look backward instead of bring the nation forward China is perceived to much more corrupt than the US. It is not even a competit…

It’s amazing that someone who has a deep nuanced view of American politics and critiques the minutia of American current events from the inside, then blindly believes vague propaganda from China (“China united and strong! Great and competent leader!”). Super common perspective from upper-middle class Americans who argue on HN and Reddit.

If you don’t live in China, don’t speak Chinese, didn’t grow up in China, have no Chinese family, then you simply have to idea what the fuck is really going on there.

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