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The Changing World Order

principles.com

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Re: The Changing World Order

#41

Post by cscurmudgeon »

cheez wrote: post #3
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Dalio is kissing up to CCP

Totally. Sort of surprised it is so blatant and that HN is eating this up.

Re: The Changing World Order

#42

Post by RareSoft »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

>Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth.

China's exports are not as much of an influence on it's GDP as you would think. The difference between China and the US is less than 10% of GDP.

China's middle class has grown very wealthy which has undoubtedly reduced China's reliance on exports and stabilized its economy against outside interference.

Re: The Changing World Order

#43

Post by cheez »

ericmay wrote: post #35
cheez wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's debt is minuscule in comparison to the other two.

But that doesn’t really matter. It’s like if you have a net worth of $50 and an income of $100, but your buddies have an income of $100,000 and a debt of $70,000

Kind of. But which one would you bet on in a startup position?

Re: The Changing World Order

#44

Post by [deleted] »

tryptophan wrote: post #37
viburnum wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know successful hedge funds profit more from insider trading than from any kind of analytical wizardry, right?

Lol. Dalio is too big to bother with insider trading. With $160bill under management, that leaves like what, ~50 companies he can't just buy outright in the entire world? Please stop watching Billions and thinking it represents anything close to reality.

[deleted]

Re: The Changing World Order

#45

Post by cheez »

hilbertseries wrote: post #34
cheez wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's debt is minuscule in comparison to the other two.

Yeah, but so is Russia’s GDP. For reference, Canada has a higher GDP.

It's roughly the same but per capita, definitely worse.

IMO, Russia will bide her time. They have a lot of intelligent, entrepreneurial people. Just need the government to loosen up a bit.

Or perhaps, most of the economy doesn't need GDP.

Re: The Changing World Order

#46

Post by [deleted] »

adaisadais wrote: post #22

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read. I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China. The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are…

[deleted]

Re: The Changing World Order

#47

Post by adaisadais »

basch wrote: post #29
adaisadais wrote: post #22

“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’” -Bob Dylan Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read. I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China. The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are…

What does declining mean in this context? Getting worse? More rudderless? Not improving as quickly? Overvalued? The US could be improving and be overvalued at the same time. There is still a lot of innovation coming out of the US despite it maybe being a bit inefficient.

Declining as in the machine that is the U.S. is broken and there is no apparent fix in sight. This generation won’t experience famine or regress into a developing nation but we will experience a decoupling of some of the preconceived notions of what being an American is.

I believe if we make some changes we can push the U.S. back to being the beacon of freedom that it has the potential to be. We have a lot of brilliant minds here.

Re: The Changing World Order

#48

Post by icelancer »

marktolson wrote: post #11
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Look at China's GDP over the last 2 decades. It has grown exponentially. At this rate they'll surpass the US this decade or next. You cant just move manufacturing elsewhere. China have perfected low cost mass manufacturing. It's not just beacuse labour is cheaper. That used to be the case but now they are innovating at a huge scale.

>> You cant just move manufacturing elsewhere

That's exactly what China and the United States are trying to do: To Africa.

Re: The Changing World Order

#49

Post by icelancer »

fbelzile wrote: post #28
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

> The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and China's economic prowess will be severely undermined. The US technically can, but then how many Americans would be able to buy the $2999 iPhone (for example) to keep Apple's current valuation?

Not to mention the lead times on factory construction being two orders of magnitude longer in the United States.

Steve Jobs told Obama manufacturing is never coming home, but it only partly had to do with cost. Impossibility of scaling like China was the major blocker.

Re: The Changing World Order

#50

Post by _iyig »

seibelj wrote: post #25
DennisP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

I’m just not impressed by what he writes about in regards to “universal principles of world history”. His credentials don’t make me assume everything he writes is true and what he writes is long winded and obvious.

Glad it's not just me. I'm halfway through reading the linked post, and it seems like he hasn't yet gotten to the point.
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