211–220 of 679 posts
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NYC is on average younger than the broader US population.
And the deaths are concentrated on the older population. They do have younger people. They also have more nursing homes and assisted care. They literally have more of everything.
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Yes, the study is really good news for NYC. My thinking is that the state of emergency, currently in place until 5/15, will be extended at most once to 6/15. After that we'll be somewhat open for business. I imagine everyone will be advised to wear mask/gloves, to keep the social distance and to keep washing hands. Lots of people will continue to work from home, others will bike to work. Being summer, the virus will…
> Being summer, the virus will not be that contagious. I think that is still scientifically debatable, good overview: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239380-will-the-spread... Certainly it is still transmissible in hot countries.
On the other hand, I can see the additional environmental UV saturation and vitamin D having a noticeable effect.
Even a small decrease in environmental persistence should help, given its infectiousness.
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But that is what the thread was talking about, right? Would be nice to see studies. My intuition is that it is weak. But my intuition doesn't count for much here.
Is it? I read the original comment as saying there were significantly different symptoms based on the transmission method. Even assuming that the transmission method results in a significantly different viral load, that's not enough to explain differing symptoms since there's not a whole lot of observable difference between cases with different severities[1,2]. There are some studies that show a relationship, but not…
If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…
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Making it the worse pandemic in decades but no where near the Spanish Flu.
Hard to compare directly against the Spanish Flu as medicine has had 100 years of progress, but assuming you are talking about overall impact, agreed.
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it doesn't contradic Ioannidis at all. He might be right in the end, and that would be an incredibly bitter pill to many. We are getting closer and closer to the flu fatality rate. from 5% to 3%, then 1% now 0.5% - smart money (and common sense) would bet that the rate will continue to drop, I would expect that people living in healthier environment than NYC will fare even better. No way NYC IFR is the upper bound fo…
0.1% is the flu cfr. 0.6ish% seems to be the corona ifr. these are comparing chalk and cheese. how many people who get the flu never rock up to a doctor? the ifr for flu is closer to 0.01%. the worst case scenarios are disproven it is true - but so is the idea that it's just a flu. let us be grateful this trial run of a deadly global pandemic was only moderately bad.
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Sweden didn't lockdown and might have herd immunity in weeks, according to their chief epidemiologist. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the long run. “In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation…
I would not really call the Swedish model successful - Czech Republic and Sweden have both about 10 million inhabitants. Things moved pretty quickly to pretty comprehensive lockdown here in Czech Republic, including mandatory mask wearing. So far this seem to be effective, with combined death toll currently at 210. In comparison Sweden has almost 10x as much, 2010 dead. Looks like if more has been done less people co…
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Why does recruiting through Facebook invalidate the results? If it is a representative sample it is a representative sample regardless of how people were recruited.
One critique was that the segment of the population who would respond to the ad and actually test may be more likely to have experienced COVID-like symptoms.
The obvious fix is to not tell people the results of their own tests. Not sure of the ethics/consequences of that approach.
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The only good news that I am getting out of this, is that NYC seems to have avoided the dreaded 3-5% fatality rate that was the presumed worse case scenario (massive community spread, overloaded healthcare system). But the lockdown likely helped a lot, and it seems like they are seeing around 1% IFR, so I am not sure this really changes anything. Our understanding of the disease and how to treat it may also be gettin…
If the infection rate were 50% we would be close to herd immunity (which I've read would require about 70% for this virus), so that would be better news in a sense. Unfortunately 21% is a long way from 70%, and it's taken a massive amount of death to get to that point.
The spread starts to slow before that point. If you're walking around infected and 20% of the people you come in contact with cannot catch it from you, 20% less people are going to catch it, no matter how much you cough on them.
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That is the point of my question. There has been no evidence of damage in non severe cases. Indeed, we are having to get complicated testing to find out many people had it at all.
How could we even tell? Biopsy? Lol no thanks.