It sure would be nice to find out the virus is far more widespread / exposure is higher than expected if only that would seem to indicate that the light at the end of the tunnel is nearer than we think ... and a lot of people have been exposed and doing well.
Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
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Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
There’s a very weak association between viral load and symptoms once you’re infected.
But that is what the thread was talking about, right? Would be nice to see studies. My intuition is that it is weak. But my intuition doesn't count for much here.
Is it? I read the original comment as saying there were significantly different symptoms based on the transmission method. Even assuming that the transmission method results in a significantly different viral load, that's not enough to explain differing symptoms since there's not a whole lot of observable difference between cases with different severities[1,2]. There are some studies that show a relationship, but nothing strong enough to explain a dramatic difference.
If it's true that the transmission method makes a big difference, it's more likely due to some other reason. E.g. maybe mild strains spread more easily in the air (although as far as I know there's no evidence that's true.)
[1] https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.09320.pdf
Page 3. "We did not observe significantly different viral loads in nasal swabs between symptomatic and asymptomatic."
[2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036707v...
Page 4. "There was no obvious difference in viral loads across sex, age groups and disease severity"
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wouldnt that mean quartine would never work because it make sense that those younger people going outside would make those 60 olds sick regardless of the quarantine.
The SK/Taiwan/Chinese/Singapore approach to quarantine has been to isolate people away from their families if they're thought to be sick (i.e., in a hotel or military barracks). That's how you make quarantine actually work.
That seems like a much cheaper solution.
Aside from china who were welding people regardless of there sick status and had millions of faulty tests.
Everyone else on that list has lower death numbers and a economy not going into the toilet.
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#204I find myself reconsidering the original proposition by England to isolate the most vulnerable for a couple months and let the virus work its course through the less vulnerable population. If death rate is substantially lower among the under 50 crowd, this could work its way through with a fairly low death toll, and result in a herd immunity within a couple months. This slow burn approach we're doing however seems po…
I've been making many posts arguing against the efficacy of lockdowns (and been getting shat on by points I find mostly naive). I think something like this is probably the best approach because it minimizes economic harm while also trying to minimize hospitalization rates among the elderly.
But even if we pretend we could implement a perfect bubble for everyone over 50, they're not especially safe when the lockdown is lifted for them. The virus will still exist, and people over 50 tend to spend time with people over 50 (see: homophily). Once it enters the social network, herd immunity doesn't exist because your local community of old people are both super vulnerable to acquiring the disease and few of them have immunity from past exposure because of the lockdown.
Locking down the country until the virus is eradicated is not a realistic option and its incorrect to think Wuhan has "done" this
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
The outcomes aren't just death and recovery. There's also the possibility of long-term heart, lung, and kidney damage. And the blood thinners used to prevent coronavirus blood clots can cause brain bleeding. Those happen in younger people, too. And realistically there's no way to isolate those over 50. They generally live with, work with, or are cared for by younger people.
Yes, recovery is not binary. Even if you recover fully you've expended some percent of your finite lifetime capacity to heal your organs. It may well have taken years off your life. That's true for other illnesses to. The flu doesn't just cost you a week of productivity.
I think I'll try to get back into running again.
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#206If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…
these comparisons to the flu usually don't seem to factor in transmissibility. seems you cant leave that out of the equation and only look at death rate
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#207If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…
Cuomo made the caveat during the press conference that these samples were collected in grocery stores etc, so might be higher than people at home etc
edit: and also potentially lower than in the essential worker populations. So some caveats to keep in mind
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#208At 21% it would be time to end the shutdown.
EDIT: Read the comments below.
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#209If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…
Making it the worse pandemic in decades but no where near the Spanish Flu.
Hard to compare directly against the Spanish Flu as medicine has had 100 years of progress, but assuming you are talking about overall impact, agreed.
Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
it doesn't contradic Ioannidis at all. He might be right in the end, and that would be an incredibly bitter pill to many. We are getting closer and closer to the flu fatality rate. from 5% to 3%, then 1% now 0.5% - smart money (and common sense) would bet that the rate will continue to drop, I would expect that people living in healthier environment than NYC will fare even better. No way NYC IFR is the upper bound fo…
0.1% is the flu cfr. 0.6ish% seems to be the corona ifr. these are comparing chalk and cheese. how many people who get the flu never rock up to a doctor? the ifr for flu is closer to 0.01%. the worst case scenarios are disproven it is true - but so is the idea that it's just a flu. let us be grateful this trial run of a deadly global pandemic was only moderately bad.
first you say 0.1% is the CFR for flu then, in the same sentence you claim that it is probably closer to 0.01% because people don't go to doctors with the flu.
Are you arguing that after all this time we still don't know what the actual CFR for flu is? And that the reported CFR is a gross overestimation? - I find that hard to believe.
To me, this feels that once this disease hits the reported flu numbers people start arguing that oh wait, the flu is actually even less dangerous ...