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Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

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Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#31

Post by taeric »

daxfohl wrote: post #18
Exmoor wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also another data point suggesting that the virus is much more contagious than the early estimates said. I personally don't see how the test, track and trace efforts that have been touted as the only way to open things up can work with a virus with these characteristics. You would need to test a huge percentage of the population each day with quick results tests and something like that is many months away from being…

I agree. But it seems to have worked in Korea. The math doesn't seem to reconcile somehow. Actually probably the prevalence of masks explains the difference.

The math seems to point more to there being another factor to what makes it severe, in my eye.

Going by the news we have seen, elementary schools could have 80%+ infection rates and fewer deaths that NY has seen. Similarly, are there other factors besides age? (Age feels way more like a proxy.)

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#32

Post by vkou »

rubidium wrote: post #21
cozzyd wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had the opposite conclusion. There are between 10k-15k COVID-19 associated deaths in NYC, depending on how you count (the higher rate is consistent with the excess-mortality data, I believe). That by itself produces a range of ~0.56%-0.86% if you assume 21.2 % of NYC has been infected (larger range if you allow for some error on the infection rate, obviously). Moreover, we don't know what fraction of the currently-…

“ Moreover, we don't know what fraction of the currently-infected who will die have already died. A reasonable guess might be 50%” I lost you at reasonable guess. Why not ~1%?

If the mean time between infection and death is 2 weeks (Mostly true), and the virus has doubled every two weeks (True in NYC), then assuming that not a single new infection takes place starting today (Obviously not true, but this is a hypothetical), then in two weeks, you would expect to have twice the deaths that you do right now.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#33

Post by brandmeyer »

jdm2212 wrote: post #25
3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's weird is that the Stanford study was suggested to have exaggerated the results, since those who suspected themselves as having the virus at one time were more likely to volunteer (allegedly). However, those results were nowhere near as big as this (I think like 2%-3% versus the 20%!)

Roughly 1/1000 New Yorkers have died of coronavirus. At a 1% IFR, that suggests at least 10% of the state has gotten the virus. Probably more, because deaths are undercounted and many people who will die of the virus already have it but haven't died yet. In the Bay Area, almost no one has died of coronavirus so the infection rate should be next to nil.

I was astonished by your 1/1000 figure and had to look it up... If anything, its too low. 15k deaths (proven+probable) in 8M people is almost 2/1000.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#34

Post by rubidium »

JamesBarney wrote: post #5

> The reason the tests were randomly taken from those at grocery and big-box stores is that these were people not isolating in their homes and presumably not at work and therefore not essential workers.

I’m an essential worker going to the grocery at 10am because there’s less people there. My hours are flexible at work and we’re set up to do staggered shifts to minimize number of people in the building.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#35

Post by grey-area »

vkou wrote: post #24

If this study is accurate, and is not just working on garbage data, and if these antibodies actually mean long-term immunity, this means one of two things: 1. If the lockdown is lifted, we will see another ~60,000 to 100,000 deaths in NYC, before it will hit herd immunity. 2. Or, the lockdown will continue. The accuracy of antibody studies has been called into doubt, and as far as I know, nobody has ever followed up…

That would be a very useful follow up study with this same population.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#38

Post by [deleted] »

cm2187 wrote: post #12
CubsFan1060 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read it as people shopping, not people that work there. So folks who are out-and-about, but are not in the more likely to have it groups (healthcare workers or people working at the grocery store). You're right about older and sick people.

No that's what I meant. People shopping and therefore not at work. Therefore intuitively I would expect the population tested to be less contaminated than the population not tested (because at work).

[deleted]

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#39

Post by glofish »

Well, it looks like in the end that much-criticized imperial model might be right on transmission rates but way off on the fatality rate and with that predicted deaths.

It pretty much looks like none of the epidemiological models are reasonably accurate on both, case numbers and fatally rates

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#40

Post by grey-area »

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #20

At what point have we scientifically reached "herd immunity"? Is it 50%, 90%, 99%?

More like 50-80%, you just need spread to be impeded so that r falls below 1, but for that many people to get it would mean very high deaths, in the US 1% of 80% of 320m is > 2m deaths.
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