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Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

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Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#401
post #309

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

> It's been a month. We can absolutely make it through a few months if we have to, while they do their work. You and I can. Many of my friends have missed a rent or car payment, and may soon miss another. Most people cannot work from home.

And that's why government action to shut down businesses, should absolutely be coupled with action to protect workers salaries. In the UK, government is paying 80% of furloughed workers pay up to a certain amount, and there is relief on property taxes etc for businesses.

In my opinion the two (shutdown and relief) go hand in hand.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many states are suspending unlawful detainer and eviction actions until the crisis is over and people can get back to work So how does that work? Instead of right now, they'll get evicted and become homeless as soon as things open up, because they've been piling up rent with no income in the meantime? Would you find that comforting?

Why do you assume that would be the outcome? That is the cruelest, most pessimistic prediction that one could make. Come on, have a little faith in common sense and decency.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Canada everyone out of work gets a $2000 check almost right away and basically no questions asked. And we're definitely less wealthy than the US (even per capita). So very unclear to me why the US can't do the same

Unemployment right now is $1050 a week here in California ($450 state + $600 federal). Should be noted $2000 CAD is ~$1400 USD also.

Did you mean $1050 a month? $1050 a week seems like a lot.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hyperbole much? People do take calculated risks with the lives of others - again driving is a dangerous activity, you take the lives of everyone in your car and those around you in your hands while driving. Even chefs are responsible for not giving people food poisoning. Because of our hyperconnected world, we depend on people taking risks around us constantly. Additionally, NYC had 500 deaths because its approaching…

Yeah, let me rephrase. COVID is the deadliest thing most people will ever have a chance of coming into contact with, you'll spread it to others before you even know you have it, thus it's almost certain you won't be the only one "taking the risk". It's not like driving, flying, takeaway, or any other inane, minimizing comparison. It is a highly infectious, stealthy, lethal pathogen. If we let everyone get it, at even…

Oh please get over yourself with the absurdly dramatic hyperbole. The deadliest thing most of us will ever have a chance of coming into contact with? you can't even get your numbers right with the drama. At 0.5% mortality and the unlikely case of 100% infection of the whole U.S population, it certainly wouldn't amount to millions and millions of dead.

Sure, it can in exceptionally rare, outlier cases kill anyone, just as do many infectious diseases whose presence we live with daily without shutting down economies and possibly causing hundreds of thousands of indirect deaths.. Gigantic, overly broad population-affecting policies of a particular and known destructive nature should not be based off such highly uncommon outliers. These things are more than a bit too important to just be figured out later as you casually say.

By far and away, it kills the elderly and even among them (again, these are the actual numbers from the vast majority of major infection sites and countries) the vast majorities of those elderly deaths are among people over the age of 70-75.

Check the numbers for yourself from any country you care to name that has published them and has enough fatalities for a more complete picture of their demographic profile. These people must be protected, of course but given the literal cross-demographic human costs of the most extreme economic measures and shelter in place rules that many still propose, a serious acceptance of discussing alternative measures for protecting the elderly while still saving the economy should absolutely be welcomed.

This kind of panicked terrified posting that disregards a wealth of contradictory and differing evidence is not at all helpful to any reasonable discussion. Furthermore, what are you yourself engaging in if not your own armchair epidemiology?

It's as if a certain large subset masturbatory hypochondriac hive mind of commentators at Hacker news is so emotionally attached to its own panicky speculation from a month or two ago when much less evidence of lower mortality rates and high asymptomatic infection was available, that some of you simply can't abide mor optimistic divergent points of view even now despite steadily growing evidence to the contrary of previously higher expected mortality rates.

Even if we accept that this virus is indeed deadly for certain vulnerable populations (a thing virtually nobody denies) and that more drastic social distancing measures are still extremely important for a while yet, then at least allowing calm debate on real human consequences of economic destruction, and debate of different policies for dealing with these consequences should always be welcomed without emotional overload.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#405
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point there is that the person clogged up an ICU bed for five weeks and will likely recover. Focussing on who will most likely die does not answer the who will overwhelm hospitals question. Increasing pressure in that sense will increase death rate even further amongst vulnerable (to dying from lack of ICU beds) populations.

Now I don't know if what is going on really makes sense or not, and I'm pretty happy to wait 6 months before I decide myself who should and shouldn't have done what - apart from the obvious stuff like the US CDC banning private companies from selling test kits has to be the stupidest crisis response I've seen in my lifetime. The reaction is going to look stupid in hindsight whatever happens, people were forced to mak…

It’s not nurses have too much work and are sad because they are overworked it’s that having no capacity means more people die because they can’t get the care they need whether they are Covid patients or a family who got in a car wreck.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hyperbole much? People do take calculated risks with the lives of others - again driving is a dangerous activity, you take the lives of everyone in your car and those around you in your hands while driving. Even chefs are responsible for not giving people food poisoning. Because of our hyperconnected world, we depend on people taking risks around us constantly. Additionally, NYC had 500 deaths because its approaching…

Yeah, let me rephrase. COVID is the deadliest thing most people will ever have a chance of coming into contact with, you'll spread it to others before you even know you have it, thus it's almost certain you won't be the only one "taking the risk". It's not like driving, flying, takeaway, or any other inane, minimizing comparison. It is a highly infectious, stealthy, lethal pathogen. If we let everyone get it, at even…

Can I check what you think gloves will achieve?

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#407
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's been a month. We can absolutely make it through a few months if we have to, while they do their work. You and I can. Many of my friends have missed a rent or car payment, and may soon miss another. Most people cannot work from home.

And that's why government action to shut down businesses, should absolutely be coupled with action to protect workers salaries. In the UK, government is paying 80% of furloughed workers pay up to a certain amount, and there is relief on property taxes etc for businesses. In my opinion the two (shutdown and relief) go hand in hand.

Except for self employed people. Except for businesses that are supposedly just weeks away from running out of cash on a huge scale.

The idea you can simply shut down the economy at will and balance it with relief doesn't make economic sense.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, let me rephrase. COVID is the deadliest thing most people will ever have a chance of coming into contact with, you'll spread it to others before you even know you have it, thus it's almost certain you won't be the only one "taking the risk". It's not like driving, flying, takeaway, or any other inane, minimizing comparison. It is a highly infectious, stealthy, lethal pathogen. If we let everyone get it, at even…

That’s actually not true. We are talking 0.2-0.3% lethality which is still a lot but it will bellow 250k deaths even if we are back to full normal right now. Current estimations are 60-70k deaths from it but the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19.

> the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k

There's no evidence that suicides are doubling.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#409
post #399
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's been a month. We can absolutely make it through a few months if we have to, while they do their work. You and I can. Many of my friends have missed a rent or car payment, and may soon miss another. Most people cannot work from home.

How many fractional-people are willing to kill or injure for that payment, which should (but isn't, because this is America) be bailed out by the government responsible for the quarantine? This is the statistical morality question that we're very bad at dealing with. Here, move this trolley switch lever. There's a 1/100 chance that doing so kills somebody. No, you can't tell whether it will, or even whether it did af…

> which should (but isn't, because this is America) be bailed out by the government responsible for the quarantine

This makes me wonder if there might be some kind of eminent domain case to be made: If the government orders a business closed due to no fault of the owner/management, is that sufficiently similar to seizing the property that they owe some kind of remuneration for the action?

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#410
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now I don't know if what is going on really makes sense or not, and I'm pretty happy to wait 6 months before I decide myself who should and shouldn't have done what - apart from the obvious stuff like the US CDC banning private companies from selling test kits has to be the stupidest crisis response I've seen in my lifetime. The reaction is going to look stupid in hindsight whatever happens, people were forced to mak…

Incidentally, they're not always even always overwhelmed. In the UK, where we were told initially that it was not even a question of if the NHS would be overwhelmed but how overwhelmed the NHS would be, hospitals are now operating with record high levels of capacity. There are as many free beds in the NHS today as there are people in beds. The 3,000 extra bed field hospital they built (one of six) has so far seen 19…

Right because the whole country is basically shutdown and you “plan for the worst, hope for the best”.

Also looking at the NHS as a whole doesn’t tell the correct story as the virus right now is concentrated in a few hotspots.

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