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Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

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Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#251

Post by CathedralBorrow »

BurningFrog wrote: post #130
CathedralBorrow wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been watching quite a lot of US mainstream media these days and I can confirm that this is not true. For all of MSNBC's faults, their anchors have been repeating testing like a broken record. They even mention how much they sound like a broken record but that testing is simply the most important thing in reopening, and that the US is doing very little of it.

Do they have an analysis of why testing isn't ramping up?

They and others discussed the issue enough to make your original statement false, including questions like "Why isn't testing ramping up?". That's the point I wanted to make. I'm not really looking to find timestamps and links for you when you haven't even done a cursory search before stating that no one was talking about testing.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#252

Post by alisonatwork »

greedo wrote: post #240
yfzhou wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has been doing mandatory 14-day hotel quarantine for all foreign arrivals like this: https://twitter.com/nishantsharma87/status/12424610259510845... However, the latest cluster in Heilongjiang involved an asymptomatic student returned from USA, completed 14 day quarantine, tested negative before and after, but still went on to infect her family and neighbors who infected more at the hospital. Total confirmed ca…

The simplest explanation would be that the student was infected after quarantine.

I agree, but that would bust the narrative that there are no local carriers any more, only "imported cases".

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#253

Post by ahakki »

quicklime wrote: post #228
collyw wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't watch it, but a couple of the bullet points look pretty untrustworthy. Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people. It's a fair bit nastier, certainly in some cases, or the hospitals wouldn't be full. The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% How can we be sure until we have widespread testing? At least 50% of the population o…

>> The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% > How can we be sure until we have widespread testing? I think we can be sure that this is an incorrect number, with the data we have right now. At least 8448 people have died of COVID-19 in New York City, and if only 0.1% of the infected die, then we have 8,448,000 infected New Yorkers. This is the entire population of the city (including those who fled t…

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

shows a significant drop in caseload. There might be herd immunity effect if you assume a death rate of ~0.2%.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#254

Post by aaron695 »

> show mass testing success

And public masks, good contact tracking, and they say gloves but hand PPE, like alcohol, also I assume a good isolation system that doesn't scare people but seen no reports on this.

Investing on making testing to be cheap and quick has however been something people missed, compared to pie in the sky things like vaccines.

Also compared to masks which are obvious but have been religiously attacked in the West.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#255

Post by misun78 »

frosted-flakes wrote: post #137
misun78 wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you are not including Cuomo — the governer at the epicenter of the worst hit NY — in your “list of good governers”? This was his quote from early March: "People are reacting like this is the Ebola virus. This is not the Ebola virus. This hysteria that you see, this fear that you see, the panic that you see is unwarranted. We have dealt with worse viruses. This spreads like the flu, but most people will have it…

Yeah, he was wrong. But he's changed his tune, and has done a decently good job managing the situation.

As again with political analysis, I am seeing downright inconsistencies and biases in judging responses to this pandemic, based on what side one is on. Do you apply the same remarks to the POTUS as well?

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#256

Post by frosted-flakes »

misun78 wrote: post #255
frosted-flakes wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, he was wrong. But he's changed his tune, and has done a decently good job managing the situation.

As again with political analysis, I am seeing downright inconsistencies and biases in judging responses to this pandemic, based on what side one is on. Do you apply the same remarks to the POTUS as well?

Responding to your original post:

> Not to make this too political but can't the same logic be applied to the POTUS too? Changed tone and done a decent job using the fed muscle to beef up on ventilators and testing. What am I missing when I hear contradicting analysis around politicians, presumably based on which "side" one is on. We should be consistent in acknowledging that no one (at least in the US) got the severity of this correct.

The same logic does apply to President Trump. But he has not changed his tune. He's done some of the right things under pressure, but then goes and says that he wants to re-open the country by Easter, etc. I don't follow what he says closely (after all, I don't live in the US), but the picture I've gotten about him is that he's inconsistent and not really trustworthy.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#257

Post by lokedhs »

colmvp wrote: post #35
teapourer wrote: post #27

To be clear, the Korean government officially still recommends social distancing. They are especially worried about the family picnics mentioned in the article, and have officially closed many public parks in response. To repeat: don't take this as a sign that Korea believes it has successfully managed the outbreak.

I'm actually slightly worried as Singapore seemed to have handled the crisis quite well with only 1000ish cases for the longest time, but have now had cases balloon from only around 1350 total cases two weeks ago to 6000 today. Certainly, a lot of it has to with migrant workers and their living situations, but it also underscores how even when you have things under control, the virus can spread rapidly when your guar…

Almost all new cases are from clusters in dormitories for migrant workers. They live very close together in those locations, and things will spread very fast.

Numbers outside these locations are going down because of the recent "circuit breaker" they introduced a few weeks ago.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#258

Post by lokedhs »

noobermin wrote: post #179
colmvp wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually slightly worried as Singapore seemed to have handled the crisis quite well with only 1000ish cases for the longest time, but have now had cases balloon from only around 1350 total cases two weeks ago to 6000 today. Certainly, a lot of it has to with migrant workers and their living situations, but it also underscores how even when you have things under control, the virus can spread rapidly when your guar…

Tbh, SG should have never let people come particularly from countries with covid outbreaks during March. While spreading across the dorms is a big part of the internal spreading, it's clear the outbreak that started in March were clusters involving people coming to sg from abroad. Almost everyone shut down travel from China (particularly Wuhan) but no one shut down travel from Europe during March. Biggest mistake eve…

The vast majority of people entering Singapore in March were Singapore citizens returning. A lot of them were students who came back because the schools had closed.

The mistake was not letting them it, but to let them self-quarantine at home. This led to them infecting other family members who then spread it further.

This has changed now as anyone entering Singapore has to be quarantined in a separate facility.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#259

Post by grey-area »

heartbreak wrote: post #157
grey-area wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US was disastrous at testing initially, but now they are doing a lot of tests (several million). Unfortunately given the stage they are at (infections widespread, still no national lockdown, some states opening up again because they think it's all over), it's too late for test and trace.

> some states opening up again because they think it's all over This is unequivocally not why some states are preparing to relax the so-called "safer at home" orders. Waiting until "it's all over" was not the goal of safer-at-home. Flattening the curve in order to prevent an immediately overwhelmed healthcare system was the goal. In multiple US states, the curve is acceptably flattened (or is expected to be in the ne…

If you haven't even started the curve (as many of these states haven't), then you're not flattening it by using stay at home for a short time then relaxing it.

IMO loosening restrictions without really aggressive testing and case tracing is going to undo lots of good work by other states by allowing the virus to spread, but time will tell.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#260

Post by grey-area »

lbeltrame wrote: post #168
heartbreak wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some states opening up again because they think it's all over This is unequivocally not why some states are preparing to relax the so-called "safer at home" orders. Waiting until "it's all over" was not the goal of safer-at-home. Flattening the curve in order to prevent an immediately overwhelmed healthcare system was the goal. In multiple US states, the curve is acceptably flattened (or is expected to be in the ne…

> Waiting until "it's all over" was not the goal of safer-at-home. Someone should tell that to the Italian authorities. At least until recently, some public statements seemed to inch in that direction ("zero new infections"), although more recently they realized that this is hardly possible at this point (especially if the estimates of the actual vs effective cases are true - talking about at least one order of magni…

I'm watching Italy/Spain with great interest at this point as both are loosening restrictions (after going through the same sort of hell as New York). If they don't see a new bump up in a few weeks for them, it means prevalence is far higher than we think in those countries (good news for them).
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