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Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

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Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#201

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

pps43 wrote: post #183
beagle3 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[citation needed] about cherry picking. The limits of their scheme was acknowledged and discussed in the paper. What cherry picking are you referring to that wasn’t addressed?

This paper? "I think the authors of the above-linked paper owe us all an apology. We wasted time and effort discussing this paper whose main selling point was some numbers that were essentially the product of a statistical error." https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw...

I'm skeptical whenever I see a teardown like this which fails to mention that the offical case counts have all the same problems. Maybe we should dismiss this paper - but that means committing ourselves to radical skepticism about the prevalence, not going back and believing the numbers printed in the news.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#202

Post by RobAtticus »

teruakohatu wrote: post #192
noobermin wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tbh, SG should have never let people come particularly from countries with covid outbreaks during March. While spreading across the dorms is a big part of the internal spreading, it's clear the outbreak that started in March were clusters involving people coming to sg from abroad. Almost everyone shut down travel from China (particularly Wuhan) but no one shut down travel from Europe during March. Biggest mistake eve…

> but no one shut down travel from Europe during March. Biggest mistake ever The USA did shut their border to a lot of Europe in early March. But at the time the WHO opposed border closure.

Kind of - it closed the borders for Europeans traveling to the US, but did little to manage Americans returning from abroad. Given March is winter in the US (thus less tourism), I would imagine the majority of Europe -> US traffic at the time is Americans returning home, that's a rather weak closure.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#203

Post by seunosewa »

Aeolun wrote: post #64
colmvp wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually slightly worried as Singapore seemed to have handled the crisis quite well with only 1000ish cases for the longest time, but have now had cases balloon from only around 1350 total cases two weeks ago to 6000 today. Certainly, a lot of it has to with migrant workers and their living situations, but it also underscores how even when you have things under control, the virus can spread rapidly when your guar…

Same thing is true for Japan. Everything seems fine for a while, and suddenly the numbers explode.

The calm before the storm happens in countries that are not testing people adequately. The numbers seem to explode when they really start testing.

South Korea is still testing aggressively. Recently they even started re-testing recovered patients. Those who tested positive had their contacts traced and tested too. As long as they remain vigilant, they will not see another big explosion. They seem to have the right attitude.

I’m waiting to see if there will be a little outbreak as a result of the elections they held recently.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#204

Post by hilbertseries »

dominotw wrote: post #58
WillPostForFood wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is am extremely stark example of the value of maintaining manufacturing capacity in your country. Korea can makes tests, so they have tests. Seegene, a company that makes Covid-19 testing equipment is in Korea. They just needed approval and to ramp up manufacturing. For most countries, like the US, we don't have the manufacturing ability anymore, so we have to go beg and buy tests while we figure how to make again…

Afaik, the shortage in US is mainly of raw materials and commodity items like pipettes. How did Seegene ramp up its raw material pipeline so quickly. Really fascinating success.

The US could have ramped up production, but politics and regulation prevented it. The CDC and FDA prevented any private companies from producing their own tests and in the meantime the CDC made their own small batch of tests that weren’t even accurate. If the president had taken the outbreak seriously we could have begun test production immediately, which is what South Korea did the moment they heard about the outbreak. This is largely due to systems put in place during and after the SARS and MERS outbreaks.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#205

Post by seunosewa »

yongjik wrote: post #132
Aeolun wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same thing is true for Japan. Everything seems fine for a while, and suddenly the numbers explode.

Couldn't find a better page, but according to a past version of wikipedia table[1], as of Mar 31, Japan had tested 32,497 people. The US had tested 1,108,500; South Korea, 410,564. A lot of people were perplexed by Japan's lack of testing. Seems like Japan's strategy (whatever it was) didn't work out in the end. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template:COVID-19...

Under testing always fails. You can’t defeat an invisible enemy.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#207

Post by koyote »

collyw wrote: post #38
FlorianRappl wrote: post #7

South Korea demonstrated from the beginning on how to deal with this (despite their slow start - which still is super quick compared to most western countries). But its completely wrong to think they passed it. They also have massive impediments at the moment. Back to normal? Far from it.

I am stuck in my flat in Spain for the 5th week now. Just read they extended it another two, to 8 in total. I am wondering how other countries can be a bit more relaxed (UK and Belgium are allowed out for an our for exercise), or in the case of Sweeden a lot more relaxed, and are still managing to flatten their curves.

This is something I have not seen discussed or explained anywhere:

Spain has such a hard lockdown and yet even after 5 weeks there are still thousands of cases every day. How are so many new people getting infected? The same has been true in Italy.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#208

Post by makomk »

chippy wrote: post #194
dazc wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The original guidance in the UK was to limit exercise to one hour but the actual law doesn't have a time limit. From what I see, people are generally behaving responsibility regards social distancing and, I assume, this is just a gamble our Govt took? Without making sweeping generalisations also, it isn't so common for young adults to spend much time with parents/grandparents/older relatives. So, I reckon, that's one…

I dont think the guidance ever said an hour, in the UK. it did say once a day though. Other places have the hour rule. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/full-guidance-on-... "one form of exercise a day"

Some reporter asked Matt Hancock how long was a reasonable length of exercise, and he suggested half an hour to an hour for most people - that's probably where it came from. It's not official guidance and certainly not a hard and fast rule anyway. From what I recall the once a day part is also only a guideline and not actually the law in most of the UK (except Wales).

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#209

Post by seunosewa »

narrator wrote: post #195
joe_the_user wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the difference between their treatment protocols and everyone else's? It's mind boggling anyone has to ask now this has been going on so long but here goes. 1) They had an approach plan beforehand because they had observed the previous SARS epidemic and took the danger seriously. 2) They had "quarantine hotels" freely available for those who were positive to prevent them from infecting others. (Seattle has a f…

The thing I don't get is this explains how people didn't get sick. What it doesn't explain is how so many got better after getting sick compared to other countries.

Their health system didn’t get overwhelmed. Thus they could provide every patient with the best care.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#210

Post by danans »

smileypete wrote: post #180
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one has done a controlled study on this, so no one really knows. It ranges from zero to many. The reason government and medical signaling on the subject has been so mixed is that it isn’t apparent they are very effective, especially the jury rigged cloth masks that people are using.

>No one has done a controlled study on this, so no one really knows. It ranges from zero to many. Can't remember seeing any controlled studies on the efficacy of social distancing either. Many of the healthcare professionals in the countries that dealt with SARS are calling for universal mask wearing. I'd much rather trust their intuition and judgement than governments and media outlets passing the buck to the WHO.

> Can't remember seeing any controlled studies on the efficacy of social distancing either.

No, but we have mountains of evidence from respiratory diseases throughout history, including the common cold and seasonal flu, that distancing lowers transmission.

It's why people are encouraged to stay home from work when they are sick, and why in normal situations, people in lines of work where they cannot afford to stay home from work get sick more often.

Social distancing is one of the oldest public health protocols we have for disease transmission control.

Sure, many old practices for disease prevention amount to nothing but old wives tales, but social distancing likely isn't one of them.

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