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Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

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Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#151

Post by varjag »

narrator wrote: post #32
makomk wrote: post #4

This worries me. South Korea's mass testing alone was not enough to contain the coronavirus outbreak; they relied on social distancing measures too: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southk...

South Korea: 234 deaths 8042 recovered. China: 4632 deaths, 77k recovered[1]. Their treatment protocol is an order of magnitude better than every other country. What are they doing that we're not? This is a huge glaring discrepancy. What's the difference between their treatment protocols and everyone else's? [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

> China: 4632 deaths, 77k recovered

There are zero deaths and zero cases in Turkmenistan, must have gotten their treatment protocols tight.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#152

Post by coldtea »

corkmask wrote: post #145
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He’s pretty much right though. It spreads worse than the flu and Dr. Ioaniddis recently published a serological study showing it seems to have a mortality rate similar to the flu. An overwhelming majority of people who get it will not die. Ioaniddis et. al. suggests the evidence points towards 1~2 out of a thousand mortality rate. We should not be panicking. We should be mitigating the disease based on the evidence a…

9 days ago Ioaniddis said If I were to make an informed estimate based on the limited testing data we have, I would say that covid-19 will result in fewer than 40,000 deaths this season in the USA,

He also predicted about 10,000 deaths in total in his mid-March article -- and he even meant that number without any special measures like social distancing and WFH.

At this point he should stop predicting...

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#153

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

coldtea wrote: post #152
corkmask wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

9 days ago Ioaniddis said If I were to make an informed estimate based on the limited testing data we have, I would say that covid-19 will result in fewer than 40,000 deaths this season in the USA,

He also predicted about 10,000 deaths in total in his mid-March article -- and he even meant that number without any special measures like social distancing and WFH. At this point he should stop predicting...

Should Imperial close up shop too?

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#154

Post by coldtea »

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #148
corkmask wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

9 days ago Ioaniddis said If I were to make an informed estimate based on the limited testing data we have, I would say that covid-19 will result in fewer than 40,000 deaths this season in the USA,

If he's off by 1.5x (IHME model predicts 60k fatalities attributed to COVID-19), surely that's miles better than the what - 50x predicted at the start (I recall seeing 2mil fatalities passed around by Imperial for the US)? 40k deaths is a little less than a week of natural deaths in the US, for scale.

That's with unprecedented social distancing measures - the 50x prediction was without...

Ioannides in his mid-March article was predicting "10,000" deaths in total in the US, without measures...

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#155

Post by coldtea »

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #153
coldtea wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He also predicted about 10,000 deaths in total in his mid-March article -- and he even meant that number without any special measures like social distancing and WFH. At this point he should stop predicting...

Should Imperial close up shop too?

No, Imperial gave an estimation of what would happen without measures, but there were measures taken. So in their case, it's natural that the actual number (with measures) would be much less.

Ioannidis' already 4x surpassed prediction was 10K deaths without measures.

Given that we have 4x WITH measures, this means we would be many times more wrong if we followed his advice and didn't take any...

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#156

Post by corkmask »

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #148
corkmask wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

9 days ago Ioaniddis said If I were to make an informed estimate based on the limited testing data we have, I would say that covid-19 will result in fewer than 40,000 deaths this season in the USA,

If he's off by 1.5x (IHME model predicts 60k fatalities attributed to COVID-19), surely that's miles better than the what - 50x predicted at the start (I recall seeing 2mil fatalities passed around by Imperial for the US)? 40k deaths is a little less than a week of natural deaths in the US, for scale.

at what multiplier would you consider being skeptical about what he says.

your comparison of the 2 mil which was the worst case scenario months ago, and now irrelevant, with 40k which was his prediction from 10 days ago is wrong.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#157

Post by heartbreak »

grey-area wrote: post #126
BurningFrog wrote: post #79

Meanwhile, the US still has very little testing capacity, with no signs of if and when that will change. One problem with the death of journalism is that no one is even reporting on this.

The US was disastrous at testing initially, but now they are doing a lot of tests (several million). Unfortunately given the stage they are at (infections widespread, still no national lockdown, some states opening up again because they think it's all over), it's too late for test and trace.

> some states opening up again because they think it's all over

This is unequivocally not why some states are preparing to relax the so-called "safer at home" orders. Waiting until "it's all over" was not the goal of safer-at-home. Flattening the curve in order to prevent an immediately overwhelmed healthcare system was the goal. In multiple US states, the curve is acceptably flattened (or is expected to be in the next few weeks), and hospitals have plenty of available capacity. Those states are going to continue encouraging physical distancing, good hygiene, etc. while allowing closed non-essential businesses to resume limited operations.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#158

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

coldtea wrote: post #154
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If he's off by 1.5x (IHME model predicts 60k fatalities attributed to COVID-19), surely that's miles better than the what - 50x predicted at the start (I recall seeing 2mil fatalities passed around by Imperial for the US)? 40k deaths is a little less than a week of natural deaths in the US, for scale.

That's with unprecedented social distancing measures - the 50x prediction was without... Ioannides in his mid-March article was predicting "10,000" deaths in total in the US, without measures...

It's worth putting his actual statement here, so people can decide whether you're misrepresenting him.

From his article [1]:

> If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.

[1]: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...

He ventured a prediction of the CFR. And then just calculates the amount of deaths from a pretty arbitrary infected percentage of the population (there's no mention of the time scale either). Never does he predict that 1% will be infected. He's arbitrarily picking a number to illustrate the amount of deaths we'd see, but that all depends on how the disease spreads. Oddly enough his serology study ends up being somewhat close - instead of 1%, they saw 1.80-3.17% (in Santa Clara).

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#159

Post by closeparen »

misun78 wrote: post #134
socialdemocrat wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in principle hindering spread is much EASIER in the US than in South Korea. The US has a huge advantage in its low population density and spread out population. That slows down the spread of disease. Not to mention the advantage of a car centric society. In the US you can travel from A to B without exposing yourself to other people. Americans also mostly live in separate houses further reducing the risk of th…

I hope you are not including Cuomo — the governer at the epicenter of the worst hit NY — in your “list of good governers”? This was his quote from early March: "People are reacting like this is the Ebola virus. This is not the Ebola virus. This hysteria that you see, this fear that you see, the panic that you see is unwarranted. We have dealt with worse viruses. This spreads like the flu, but most people will have it…

Ebola has an average case fatality rate of 50%. This is not Ebola.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#160

Post by Lewton »

op03 wrote: post #74
colmvp wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually slightly worried as Singapore seemed to have handled the crisis quite well with only 1000ish cases for the longest time, but have now had cases balloon from only around 1350 total cases two weeks ago to 6000 today. Certainly, a lot of it has to with migrant workers and their living situations, but it also underscores how even when you have things under control, the virus can spread rapidly when your guar…

It will be fine as long as the medical system is prepped to handle surge/moving overflow smoothly/pulling in and sharing resources etc. Remember most positives won't require hospitalization (~50% wont even show any symptoms, 40% will have mild symptoms). And compared to few months back readiness/awareness levels at hospitals is much higher.

Iceland did random sampling and while it showed 50% asymptomatic at the time of testing, only 15% ended up not showing symptoms at all
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