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California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

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Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#111

Post by mantas »

eropple wrote: post #96
3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ignore the skyrocketing rates of suicide, domestic violence, and child abuse.

Source?

Domestic violence was up 20% in my country in first weeks of quarantine. Police and social services were super worried it will get worse as quarantine takes longer.

I can google you some local media articles if you want to double-check via google translate.

It makes sense though. People spend more time together in close quarters. People lost jobs. Lots of stress all around. Perfect storm for beating that bastard you meet in the kitchen.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#112

Post by ckarmann »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #75
hannob wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more interesting question is: Will we come ahead in lives saved without the covid measurements. Because it tells a very interesting story how many lives we're willing to accept to be lost in normal circumstances. Cars, air pollution, avoidable infections, ... - there's a lot of harm society could avoid and doesn't.

> The more interesting question is: Will we come ahead in lives saved without the covid measurements. I'm still waiting to see what has happened to the number of deaths caused by heart attack, stroke, etc. that aren't COVID related. I'm betting those causes of death have dropped by about the same amount of COVID deaths.

At least in some European countries where COVID cases has submerged the healthcare system, it is a very bad time to have a stroke or a car accident since the ER rooms are full and a lot of hospital resources are diverted to fight the pandemic. So it increases the mortality of these other situations.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#113

Post by afthonos »

jfoster wrote: post #95
afthonos wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are unfortunately baked into our accounting, much like “killed by bandits” was accounted for in medieval trade until states started being able and willing to provide meaningful security.

But the assumptions in many of them were made a long time ago and don't necessarily apply anymore. In the case of air pollution for example, there probably exists a price that could be paid to significantly reduce it and improve the overall health of everyone.

I don’t disagree. But we seem to be bad at re-evaluating old decisions (definitely in my case), and it doesn’t help when politics is basically a team sport in the US.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#114

Post by eanzenberg »

hannob wrote: post #60
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

The more interesting question is: Will we come ahead in lives saved without the covid measurements. Because it tells a very interesting story how many lives we're willing to accept to be lost in normal circumstances. Cars, air pollution, avoidable infections, ... - there's a lot of harm society could avoid and doesn't.

Yes. We’re at about 95% of “plan”.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#115

Post by eanzenberg »

mediumdeviation wrote: post #9
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

That seems unlikely given that in the week of April 6 to 12, Covid 19 has risen to the 2nd leading cause of death in the United States[1]. [1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronaviru...

This is bad analysis which uses historic numbers and plops COVID against them. Everyone right now is dying of COVID and not much else. Apparently it’s healing cancer and heart attacks.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#116

Post by briandear »

Udo_Schmitz wrote: post #108
arcticbull wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…

>your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany 1.: Study is not complete yet and is of 500 people in the hardest hit area in Germany[1] 2.: Why do you compare deadly car accidents in the US with COVID-19 mortality rate in Germany? 3.: COVID-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.3%[2] [1] https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/corona... [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/d…

That death rate is skewed. A COVID death is counted if the person had the infection and died, even if a co-morbidity would have killed them anyway. A person that has no symptoms or mild symptoms isn’t necessary known to have had the disease, which means there is a significantly lower death rate because the known infections is what’s used for the death rate, not the actual number of infections. A newly released study showed that 4% of Santa Clara County had exposure, but the “confirmed cases” is vastly lower than that. A 5% mortality rate is just false. Confirmed infections can’t be used to determine mortality because the number of actual infections is obviously going to be much higher. Mild or asymptomatic people aren’t going to the hospital to be tested so they aren’t being included in mortality calculations.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#117

Post by eanzenberg »

gizmo686 wrote: post #11
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

Looking at the graph here [0], it would be very surprising if COVID was net saving lives. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-weekly-coronavirus-...

Usually better to look at underlying data:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#118

Post by briandear »

PeterStuer wrote: post #92
dehrmann wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm expecting knock-on mental health effects to be pretty bad.

Should at least be cushioned a bit by the absence of traffic noise and pollution related stress. Would be nice to have the benefits of both: very little motorized traffic AND no viral threat. We have no control over the latter, but we most certainly have some control over the former.

Domestic violence and child abuse is up. And suicides are increasing. And millions have lost their jobs. Pretty sure unemployed people or those that had their businesses destroyed aren’t basking in the lower noise and pollution reductions.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#119

Post by ars »

rchaves wrote: post #32

will US learn to be less car-centric after this?

If anything, more car-centric. I can't even imagine handling this lockdown without a car.

I try to rarely leave the house, so when I go I buy enough groceries for 2 weeks or more. That would not be possible without a car.

With a car I also have a lot less contact with other people.

I feel really bad for those people who don't have cars - bus service is severely reduced, and I bet they are having a very hard time.

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