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California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

ucdavis.edu

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Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#51

Post by Tallasatree »

Talanes wrote: post #28
sieabahlpark wrote: post #3

I mean, sure but how much is it losing from loss of revenue? I.e. sales tax? Bad title and bad article.

The scope that you seem to be expecting isn't possible right now. Anything that's attempting to account for every amount of money lost or saved will end up missing something. The title contains itself to the scope that it is accurate at. Trusting the reader to intuitively know California is losing massive amounts of money from other things seems reasonable. Just because a title isn't written for the most uneducated r…

Nothing could be more opposite in the world we live in. This title is indeed a puff piece, intended on showing a "bright" side to the shut down. Its incumbent on the educated reader to see that. Unfortunately, it seems not many people critically think anymore.

Edit: Just because its data, doesn't mean its important. I can't wait to see Cal DOT's surplus after this.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#52

Post by dehrmann »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

> reducing violent crime

There are fears it will increase domestic abuse.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#53

Post by arcticbull »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #30
gizmo686 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at the graph here [0], it would be very surprising if COVID was net saving lives. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-weekly-coronavirus-...

Not looking good. :( I guess I thought a lot more people than that died from car crashes.

I wonder if we'll see a big drop in flu deaths as overwhelmingly only the old and sick die of COVID, and those folks are at large risk from the flu also.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#55

Post by arcticbull »

dehrmann wrote: post #42
meritt wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Maybe my local experience is an outlier but I've seen significantly more people cooking meals at home and exercising. The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x. Are gluttony and sedentary lifestyles not the major contributors for type-2 diabetes and heart disease?

I've had a similar experience, though I have no idea if the runners I'm seeing makes up for less activity throughout the day, gyms being closed, etc. It's possible that the 4% of people who go to the gym regularly are now running outside, and everyone else is even less active. Also, heart disease and type-2 diabetes are years in the making, and a month of moderate exercise and better eating won't make up for it overn…

Takes 21 days to form a new habit, so there's every chance they'll continue!

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#56

Post by Exmoor »

Baeocystin wrote: post #35
kevingadd wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

non-essential procedures and doctor's visits have also been cancelled, and some medicines are now rationed also. Both will have a negative impact on the health of some people. I personally had a month long series of treatments scheduled that got cancelled, and now I have no idea when I'll be able to get that treatment. Better than dying from the virus, though.

I've had a scan that was scheduled five months ago cancelled, and one of my vitally necessary meds was three weeks late getting filled. Good thing I'm worried about running out so had some to spare, but it's no joke that people are going to die due to simply not getting what they need.

My wife had a similar experience. Her issue is probably not major, but it could also be a serious cancer and who knows when they'll start taking clients again, much less catch up to her.

Making a rough guess of two months of shutdown, we've lost 1/6 of our annual non-emergency medical capacity for 2020. It'd be impossible to put a number on the cost in lives that means, but I think we can probably say with certainty that there are a non-insignificant number of people who will die or experience permanent medical issues because diagnosis and/or treatment was delayed.

Perhaps I've missed it, but I'm honestly shocked this isn't priority number one for a partial reopening in regions with low infection rates.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#57

Post by lisper »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #30
gizmo686 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at the graph here [0], it would be very surprising if COVID was net saving lives. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-weekly-coronavirus-...

Not looking good. :( I guess I thought a lot more people than that died from car crashes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...

About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it.

I worry about Covid-19.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#58

Post by dehrmann »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

I'm expecting knock-on mental health effects to be pretty bad.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#59

Post by arcticbull »

lisper wrote: post #57
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not looking good. :( I guess I thought a lot more people than that died from car crashes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.

Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remains about 3X higher than from dying of a COVID infection.

Lifetime risk is a better way of comparing the two because (a) both of them represent lifetime risks and (b) COVID is front-loaded, spreading furiously through the population so your daily risk today is higher than your daily risk of a dying in a car crash, but your lifetime risk remains much lower.

It's also worth calling out the flu has killed 2X as many people as COVID has to date this flu season. A bad flu season in the US kills about 60K people each year.

[1] https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit...

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#60

Post by hannob »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

The more interesting question is: Will we come ahead in lives saved without the covid measurements.

Because it tells a very interesting story how many lives we're willing to accept to be lost in normal circumstances.

Cars, air pollution, avoidable infections, ... - there's a lot of harm society could avoid and doesn't.

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