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California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

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Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#61

Post by nostromo »

zaroth wrote: post #10
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

Aside from even the fatalities, the math still is that 50% of LA is presently unemployed. While some articles are somehow gleeful in the face of this calamitous reality, there is no where near a net balance. The Fed has spent at least $2 trillion dollars on this already. Probably closer to $6 trillion by the time we are done. It is an unimaginably large cost to shut things down relative to any possible benefit.

Looking at the ~40k US deaths and the $6T spent, we’ve spent $150 million in stimulus per death.

Looking at the non-spending costs of lost productivity, opportunity costs, etc., it’s a staggering number.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#62

Post by lisper »

arcticbull wrote: post #59
lisper wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.

Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…

> your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37%

I'm 55 so I'm pretty sure my risk is higher than that. Also, the covid risk is highly front-loaded. If I'm gong to die from covid, I'm likely to do so now whereas if I'm going to die in a car crash that might happen now or it might happen later. I don't really care about dying per se. Sooner or later it's going to happen. What I care about is dying sooner and more painfully than I have to. Drowning on my own bodily fluids doesn't sound like a pleasant way to go.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#63

Post by JohnJamesRambo »

arcticbull wrote: post #59
lisper wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.

Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…

All of those are great but COVID has done that in weeks.

38,000 people die every year in crashes on US roads. COVID deaths are at 39k and the first COVID-19 death was on Feb. 29. 50 days ago.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#64

Post by Exmoor »

rchaves wrote: post #32

will US learn to be less car-centric after this?

Other than the obvious drop in drivers due to unemployment, I don't see a plausible way that happens.

Taking public transit is probably one of the riskiest activities the average person might undertake in their day as far as contracting a virus. Whether or not that will cause people to take their cars instead is unknown, but I can't imagine it will increase ridership in the near term.

Additionally we may see a slowing down or even slight reversal in the trends of populations becoming more urban and more dense. Living in a 400sqft apartment is doable for some people when they're spending most of their free time at bars, parks, restaurants, etc., but after enduring months of those places inaccessible the idea of living in a less-dense suburb may be appealing to people.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#65

Post by ben_w »

nostromo wrote: post #61
zaroth wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from even the fatalities, the math still is that 50% of LA is presently unemployed. While some articles are somehow gleeful in the face of this calamitous reality, there is no where near a net balance. The Fed has spent at least $2 trillion dollars on this already. Probably closer to $6 trillion by the time we are done. It is an unimaginably large cost to shut things down relative to any possible benefit.

Looking at the ~40k US deaths and the $6T spent, we’ve spent $150 million in stimulus per death. Looking at the non-spending costs of lost productivity, opportunity costs, etc., it’s a staggering number.

Surely the important number is per lives saved rather than per lives lost?

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#67

Post by afthonos »

hannob wrote: post #60
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

The more interesting question is: Will we come ahead in lives saved without the covid measurements. Because it tells a very interesting story how many lives we're willing to accept to be lost in normal circumstances. Cars, air pollution, avoidable infections, ... - there's a lot of harm society could avoid and doesn't.

Those are unfortunately baked into our accounting, much like “killed by bandits” was accounted for in medieval trade until states started being able and willing to provide meaningful security.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#68

Post by arcticbull »

lisper wrote: post #62
arcticbull wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…

> your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% I'm 55 so I'm pretty sure my risk is higher than that. Also, the covid risk is highly front-loaded. If I'm gong to die from covid, I'm likely to do so now whereas if I'm going to die in a car crash that might happen now or it might happen later. I don't really care about dying per se. Sooner or later it's going to happen. What I care about is dying sooner and more…

Not really actually! In your age category 50-59 your case fatality rate is 1.3% [1] and given the way it affects the older end of the band more significantly than yourself in the middle of the band, it wouldn't be at all unlikely that your case fatality rate is right around 1%.

Further, we have been seeing anywhere from 30-80% of cases are asymptomatic or result in mild flulike symptoms and therefore not accounted for in case fatality rates. Indeed the Gangelt study put the overall infection fatality rate at 0.37% when Germany's case fatality rate is around 2%. It wouldn't surprise me at all if your risk was about 7X lower than the stated 1.3%, as low as 0.25%

I also wouldn't be so quick to assume car crashes are a pleasant way to go.

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#69

Post by dragonwriter »

meritt wrote: post #20
Scoundreller wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m also expecting some long term after-effects that will increase diabetes and heart disease as most people are locked up.

Really? Maybe my local experience is an outlier but I've seen significantly more people cooking meals at home and exercising. The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x. Are gluttony and sedentary lifestyles not the major contributors for type-2 diabetes and heart disease?

> The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x.

Those are probably largely people that probably did just as much activity somewhere other than their home neighborhood (physical-but-nonessential labor, gym, athletic hobbies that rely on now-closed businesses, etc.)

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#70

Post by snovv_crash »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

In South Africa at least, violent crime has dropped by 75%.
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