Earlier quoted context omitted.
The know that presymtomatic people are highly contagious.
I don't doubt it, but where did you hear that?
This South Korean COVID expert says people are contagious 2 days before symptoms show.
Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
471–480 of 544 posts
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#472Earlier quoted context omitted.
That study did their research in a town that was already infected, meaning that our understanding of the infection rate for Covid-19 is probably lower than reality.
Precisely - as an early outbreak centre that town is referred to as "Germany's Wuhan", and is expected to have among the highest proportion of infected inhabitants. So actually the 15% figure came as a disappointment and something of a surprise.
A disappointment? NYC has among the highest testing rates in the world and has only found about 1.5% of people infected. If there's another 14% in NYC that have been infected without needing medical attention, that is fantastic news.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#473Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not when the amount of people is limited. Exponential spread in isolated group of 3000 people necessary becomes non exponential at some point.
Eh, so far only 600 of the 4800 member crew has tested positive. That should still be comfortably in the "mostly exponential" territory.
It is possible there is large fraction of people who had the infection, but are not infected anymore. A serological would tell us the share of people with antibodies for this virus.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#474While this is interesting...
* Sailors are not in any way representative of the general population.
* Sailors in the US Navy are notoriously overworked and there is a strong culture of working when sick. So we're they actually asymptomatic or did they report for work shivering and sweating and semi delerious?
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#475Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not when the amount of people is limited. Exponential spread in isolated group of 3000 people necessary becomes non exponential at some point.
Eh, so far only 600 of the 4800 member crew has tested positive. That should still be comfortably in the "mostly exponential" territory.
The article isn't clear what kind of tests these were.
If, as is most likely, they're PCR tests for viral RNA, then they'll only detect active (or recently-active) infections. So anyone who's gotten-over an infection, symptomatic or not, will test negative. The number of infections reported here is a floor on the actual number who have been infected – which could be 2x, 4x, or more.
If instead these are antibody tests, then they're only indicating 600 total infections. But that kind of test is less likely here: such tests are not very useful for diagnosis of active infections, as they only turn positive late in a case. They could be useful for tallying past infected status – but there's a lot of rumbling that early antibody tests haven't been as reliable as hoped.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#476IMHO, this article is intentionally misleading. The incubation period is currently estimated to be 2-14 days (mean is 5.6 days per CDC, similar per WHO). The article doesn’t mention any dates or time frames, but does mention: ”Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19” — note how “so far” is ambiguous in that sentence. It also states, “The Navy’s testing…
I don't think it's intentionally misleading, but it is disappointing, how even the 'beat' reporters on this issue of intense international interest don't ask about, or highlight, the open questions, like:
* were these PCR tests (of active viral RNA presence) or antibody tests (of past infection). It's probably the former, meaning 600 cases is a floor, maybe a low floor, on the total number of infected plus recovered.
* the timeframes of testing, & to what extent testing-windows overlap all those who earlier reported symptoms/concern – & any followup to see who was merely pre-symptomatic.
* the total impact on the crew in terms of deaths and serious cases. (Mentioning 1 recent death and 5 current hospitalizations doesn't reveal how many total hospitalizations, or serious ICU/ventilator cases.)
Maybe some of this is because the Navy is holding back details (possibly for legitimate operational reasons). Maybe these wire reporters are stuck rewriting limited primary material released as someone else's press-release or transcript. But it's frustrating when the obvious next questions haven't even been asked or acknowledged.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#477IMHO, this article is intentionally misleading. The incubation period is currently estimated to be 2-14 days (mean is 5.6 days per CDC, similar per WHO). The article doesn’t mention any dates or time frames, but does mention: ”Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19” — note how “so far” is ambiguous in that sentence. It also states, “The Navy’s testing…
> This paper [1] found that testing of all pregnancy patients in a hospital yielded 34% asymptomatic cases.
For a second, I thought you were saying 34% of them didn't have pregnancy symptoms.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#478Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This means if you caught the virus early in the spread of the pandemic your odds of surviving are substantially higher than if you caught it right at the peak of infection. I'd say your odds are best if you catch it some time after the peak. The hospital will be better prepared to prevent infections there and have more experience on how to treat patients best. There may even be some treatment that prevents the wors…
Yep you're right, your odds are best towards the tail of the pandemic
In most cases, but the 1918 Spanish flu famously got more deadly after a mutation, if you got it early you were better off.
I'm still hoping to get it late assuming better treatment (or better yet vaccine), but I recognize there is no way to know if this is correct in this case.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#479Earlier quoted context omitted.
The 2% number is 2% of people who have bad symptoms die. 0.37% is 0.37% of all people who get it, including those who have mild/no symptoms die. It simply means a much larger percentage of people get it, not that any less people are dying. I’d say there’s a good chance that many of us have gotten it, and spread it, without knowing it.
Korean testing is revealing a fatality rate of about 2% over all cases, with about 8% requiring hospitalization. You are off by an order of magnitude.
Korean testing is largely confined to the symptomatic. They are still suffering from the same issues with missing the iceberg that everyone else is.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#480IMHO, this article is intentionally misleading. The incubation period is currently estimated to be 2-14 days (mean is 5.6 days per CDC, similar per WHO). The article doesn’t mention any dates or time frames, but does mention: ”Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19” — note how “so far” is ambiguous in that sentence. It also states, “The Navy’s testing…
Even though an early WHO study showed 95% of cases will show symptoms within 7 days, they still don't know the average age of infection, so it is highly presumptuous to say they are asymptomatic.