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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

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Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#361

Post by iso947 »

nradov wrote: post #223
ajross wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was the contention to which you were responding, in a conversation which was similarly challenging the WHO (and everyone else's) estimate on the severity. And I was pointing out that you can't do that, logically your argument was a tautology. The same effect you were arguing against would argue against your evidence.

You misunderstood my argument. I made no claim about severity. Merely than in about five days it will be clear which patients were presymptomatic versus asymptomatic.

our assumption is something like “45% will show symptoms within 5 days, 5% after 5 days, 50% will not show symptoms in 100 years”

If that’s wrong, and it’s

45% in 5 days 45% after 5 days and less than 90 days 10% don’t show symptoms within 100 years

That would change things. I’m not aware of any evidence that that is the case.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#362

Post by sharken »

rconti wrote: post #349
nednar wrote: post #323

It's the first time I see news about the aircraft carrier. Could someone summarize why the captain got fired for testing his whole crew in an environment where a lot of people have to live very closely together? My first assumption is that it was a really good decision.

TL;DR is the first guy got canned for "politicizing" (and, really, operating outside the chain of command by widely publicizing his fears and 'leaking' information about) the problem. Basically, the military chain of command has ALWAYS really cared about how you handle these things. He violated it, and my military friends generally feel he did the "right" thing, but many also feel he knew what was coming and should t…

This all sounds exactly how i imagine the Chinese regime is attempting to cover up how many Corona related deaths they actually have. Except nobody wants to be that person who leaks the story.

Sources: https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-residents-say-chinese-...

https://www.france24.com/en/20200331-stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan...

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#363

Post by kavalg »

thesz wrote: post #356

Let me cite full abstract of the research on CT scans of symptom-free COVID-19 patients [1] Purpose To evaluate the chest CT findings in an environmentally homogeneous cohort from the cruise ship “Diamond Princess” with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Materials and Methods This retrospective study comprised 104 cases (mean age, 62 years ± 16, range 25-93) with COVID-19 confirmed with RT-PCR. CT images were revie…

When you say damage, do you mean permanent damage? Or maybe it is still not clear?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#364

Post by rumanator »

amiantos wrote: post #330
system2 wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If 0.37% is true, why are the hospitals in this shape?

The 2% number is 2% of people who have bad symptoms die. 0.37% is 0.37% of all people who get it, including those who have mild/no symptoms die. It simply means a much larger percentage of people get it, not that any less people are dying. I’d say there’s a good chance that many of us have gotten it, and spread it, without knowing it.

> The 2% number is 2% of people who have bad symptoms die.

I don't believe that's true. In countries such as Spain, right now there are about 80k confirmed recoveries and 19k deaths among a universe of 182k confirmed cases.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#365

Post by iso947 »

danieltillett wrote: post #240
scythe wrote: post #20

Do we know if these cases are truly asymptomatic or just presymptomatic as was observed on the Diamond Princess? 48% asymptomatic initially: https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-... 18% asymptomatic retrospectively: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/ Also, 58% of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections still show damage to the lungs on CT: https://appliedradiology.com/articles/study…

Do you know any studies of the outcome of the 32 Diamond Princess patients that were the ICU at the time the boat was emptied? I have been looking and I can’t find any data on what was the final clinical outcome of all patients on the Diamond Princess?

Wiki said there have been 14 deaths so far, most recently just 3 days ago.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#366

Post by innomatics »

acqq wrote: post #311
innomatics wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Euromomo data is really interesting to me because of these two points: 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 2) this year's flue season spike was low compared to recent years. Maybe due to a warmer summer? One interpretation could be that a large number of vulnerable people escaped death from regular ILIs this European season, only to s…

But all the countries did introduce various measures to slow down the spread. Otherwise nobody could claim that the numbers remained compatable.

Yes, which is wonderful. I am wondering what caused the large 2016 spike. Another interesting thing is the effect any behaviour changes are going to have on regular flu numbers. It's already looking to have a big effect in then southern hemisphere.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#367

Post by KaiserPro »

AmericanChopper wrote: post #251
henrikschroder wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong. But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Sure, different countries are counting deaths differently, making it hard to compare them to each other, but the trajectories don't lie. And if you look at growth trajectories, no country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth at this point…

> But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. They most certainly do lie. I know people who work in a particular police department, and they have been exercising a policy of not testing people they find dead. Situations like somebody found dead at home in bed, perhaps some blood that looks like it’s been coughed onto a pillow. Whoever’s in charge of policy wants the numbers lower, so they don’t do a test…

you'll see a spike in the overall mortality for a region.

If you look at the mortality figures from the UK (published by the ONS) you can clearly see a peak, compared to the average range for that week over the last (10?) years.

That peak matches the shape of the numbers of victims of covid (the number is higher because nursing homes are horribly affected)

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#368

Post by arcticbull »

soperj wrote: post #352
arcticbull wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's spreading so very fast, and nobody has any pre-existing immunity to this new disease. The flu kills 60,000 Americans every year and so far COVID has killed about 10,000 -- over roughly the same flu season time period. The difference is that the flu is spread out over time and is fighting some pre-existing immunity and flu shots. It also has a lot to do with excess capacity. If there suddenly appeared a n…

So far Covid has killed 34,000 not 10,000 in the States.

Thanks, I grabbed the wrong column from my data. Either way that’s half the flu total over the same season. My point is that it isn’t unprecedented load, it’s just all at once — and additive.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#369

Post by Scarblac »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #113
feral wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Netherlands has 3.3k deaths vs 29k confirmed cases, which would give a CFR of ~10% I.e. the Netherlands aren't testing much. A 10x reduction there brings it back to the CFR range we see in countries with bigger testing programs. I'm not a specialist but have been following this for a while, and have yet to see evidence the IFR for this isnt around 0.5-1% (assuming decent healthcare). That's what we saw in the Dia…

My current bet is younger healthy people are more likely to be asymptomatic. And older people much less so. Theodore Roosevelt with likely a young population, most are asymptomatic. Diamond Princess much older population most are symptomatic.

Or it is related to initial viral load, and getting it through the air from the ventilation systems on a ship gives low viral load.

Otoh, maybe asymptomatic cases also don't build up immunity so shouldn't really be counted as cases.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#370

Post by rocqua »

feral wrote: post #90
ivoras wrote: post #40

Adding to that, Netherlands' study of antibodies in blood donors' samples shows about 10x difference between the number of reported / tested cases and actual cases in the general population (i.e. a lot more people got it and were not sick): https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/16/world/europe/16re... ?

The Netherlands has 3.3k deaths vs 29k confirmed cases, which would give a CFR of ~10% I.e. the Netherlands aren't testing much. A 10x reduction there brings it back to the CFR range we see in countries with bigger testing programs. I'm not a specialist but have been following this for a while, and have yet to see evidence the IFR for this isnt around 0.5-1% (assuming decent healthcare). That's what we saw in the Dia…

Dutch testing policy is acknowledged by national bodies to not be representative at all. Moreover, so is our death rate.

We have a lot of hidden deaths of elderly people who decide not to go through the trauma of an ICU stint and instead decide to die at home.

I don't recall exact numbers but think it was estimated the true death toll is about 50 to 100 percent higher.

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