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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

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Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#261

Post by 8ytecoder »

btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

According to a paper published yesterday[1], the pre-symptomatic period is about 2.3 days[2].

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5

[2] "we inferred that infectiousness started from 2.3 days (95% CI, 0.8–3.0 days) before symptom onset and peaked at 0.7 days (95% CI, −0.2–2.0 days) before symptom onset "

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#262

Post by danieltillett »

mardifoufs wrote: post #248
danieltillett wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not compared to Norway. How did Norway have more cases a month ago and now Sweden has double and 10x as many deaths.

Belgium and Sweden have had a similar timeline yet Belgium has a much higher number of deaths/capita. Same could be said for a lot of countries that have had much more fatalities. Look at the higher fatality rates in Quebec too, even though the province set in place really strict lockdowns and has had it's first deaths much later than Sweden. My point here is that Sweden is well in the middle of the pack. So what giv…

There are so many confounding factors that it is very hard to say. Sweden does look like an outlier compared to the other Scandinavian countries.

Testing criteria between countries are so different that it is very hard to make any comparison. About the only number I trust is all cause deaths and even that is laggy.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#263

Post by dguaraglia »

rootusrootus wrote: post #213
tropo wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also 0% with asthma, obesity, diabetes, etc.

Not true. For various reasons, the military grants medical waivers and allows some people with asthma and other afflictions to remain enlisted.

Yeah, but that number is going to be way lower than the average population.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#264

Post by surge »

This was what was coming out when it was blowing through China, this was what the big concern back February. This isn't news. A good deal of people will never notice they have it which is why the spread of this thing is so difficult to contain.

I guess maybe people doubted it really was that hard to stop or were not paying attention before, but its why its is absolutely critical everyone isolate even without symptoms.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#265

Post by ngcc_hk »

phkahler wrote: post #228
JshWright wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you explain the hospitalization rate not climbing until a couple months later?

There are 2 strains?

https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5080571...

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#266

Post by Muuuchem »

bmsran wrote: post #250
serf wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

evidence of what? two separate strains? this paper mentions two strains[0], 'L' and 'S' type, was it refuted? [0]: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036...

yes: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal...

Just read it and they were not disputing the existence of two strains but rather that the virus didnt jump from animals twice. The article disputes the claim that because L strain is 70% of the cases, that it must be more virulent.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#267

Post by kaitai »

kian wrote: post #55
falcor84 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, for what it's worth, if they get the virus while on a long tour of duty, by the time they get back they should be good to contribute to the herd immunity.

Only if they form antibodies. Studies have been suggesting that people who get it in asymptomatic form are not all forming antibodies - leaving them wide open to be future communicators of the disease.

To everyone suddenly thinking about antibodies vs T-cells vs whatever else, the podcast "This Week In Virology" discusses some of the difficulties at https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-602/ (discussion with Stanley Perlman). A number of other episodes also hit on coronavirus. Listen while you're walking the dog.

Another fun seminar is this one by Prof Pamela Bjorkman at Caltech; it's useful to watch the slides with at least one eyeball so not for dog-walking. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBcc_dk9Q9U

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#268

Post by mattkrause »

sfj wrote: post #256
jeremyjh wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so tiresome. Someone has cancer for six months, gets COVID and dies 17 days later and now Tucker Carlson is here telling me not to count that death. How often do you really think it happens that someone is hospitalized with COVID (otherwise, they'd not even be getting tested most places in the world) and dies of something else a week later? I'm sure it has happened a few times, but what has also been happenin…

> Someone has cancer for six months, gets COVID and dies 17 days later and now Tucker Carlson is here telling me not to count that death. If someone has cancer and then gets a bad cold and dies, what should the cause of death be? Or what if they fell, etc.?

The OECD definition for a cause of death is the “disease or injury that initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to death...”

They also recognize a a contributory cause of death, defined as “a significant condition that unfavourably influences the course of the morbid process and thus contributes to the fatal outcome, but which is not related to the disease or condition directly causing death.”

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#269

Post by yellowapple »

lostlogin wrote: post #167
perl4ever wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"AFAIK, 100% of the canonical pre-existing conditions which are highly dangerous with COVID are disqualifiers for joining the military." Including being "old".

Disqualified from signing up, but you can age surely? I thought that smokers had elevated risks too, are smokers allowed in the military? As far as I can tell they are.

> Disqualified from signing up, but you can age surely?

To an extent. The US military caps military service at 30 years (20 for reserve officers), last I checked. So if you enlisted at 35 (right at the cutoff for the usual maximum age to enlist), you'd be forced to retire at 65, whereas if you enlisted at 17, you'd be forced to retire at 47. 65 (IIRC) is right on the edge of when age starts becoming a significant risk factor; for the vast majority of military personnel, it ain't gonna be a factor.

There are of course exceptions to this based on rank or specialization; for example, had my grandpa been promoted to General, he would've been able to serve longer, but he wasn't selected for the promotion so he aged out as a Colonel (or at least that's how he explained it to me).

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#270

Post by mrpopo »

maxerickson wrote: post #174
btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. That's imprecisely stated. 50% of the people that tested positive were asymptomatic. Most of the people tested, both in Iceland and on the Theodore Roosevelt, have tested negative. Esper's comments are ridiculous. It's been clear for months that there is some significant degree of asymptomatic spread, it's not new information.

Yes. Extensive testing was done in Korea and Taiwan in February and the same results came out. With extensive contact tracing, it became clear that asymptomatic cases played a big role in spreading the virus.

This data is not different or new, not even better.

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