Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy • Hacker News Board

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#71

Post by wrs » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:20 AM UTC

virtualritz wrote: post #10

That reminds me of another headline from last month that was right up the Monty Python alley too: ”Turkmenistan Has Banned Use Of The Word ‘Coronavirus’” As a friend who’s a standup comedian said in response to reading that: “Brilliant, why didn’t our government think of this? We wouldn’t have all these problems.” [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...

Recall that the US President wanted to keep a cruise ship from docking because "I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault". If your career is built on the principle that perception trumps reality, it's hard to adjust when reality doesn't cooperate.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#72

Post by seppin » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:21 AM UTC

mchusma wrote: post #14

mikepurvis wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already happening in Sweden: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-deat...

I don't understand the Sweden example. Their daily % increase in deaths is well below California. I don't know if there is a difference in counting deaths but Sweden seems to be doing ok relative to other countries. I have heard that they are effectively shut down voluntarily, so government action was not needed but the effect has been the same. Maybe a Swede can weigh in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavir…

They aren't testing. I have 3 friends bedridden right now with COVID19 symptoms in Stockholm, all of which were denied a test after they asked for one. They were told to stay home and get over it.

Their numbers aren't reflective of reality.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#73

Post by sudoaza » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:21 AM UTC

He's a total madman. Trump is a shithead but he'll read the situation or be advised by someone, jump ships and blame it on the chinese or something. This guy went 100% on this and is not turning back, to the level of taking people to the streets to force business owners to open, walking on the streets to chat with followers (while he's suspected positive covid) and calling for fasting and prayers as a solution. BTW Religious services were defined as "essential" so they can still be carried on. Much of his base is from a fanatic/fringe christian faith so maybe that's were that comes from.

What worries me is that now Brazil is in a stand off, the military that surround him, vice-president included, have cutted him off power and congress is starting to look into an impeachment. But even if they do, and do away with Bolsonaro, then the military that ran with him will have the power, will finally declare the lockdown and anything can happen next, they'll be lucky if they have elections after that. Police abuse during lockdown grew a lot in other latin countries, i expect at least the same to happen there, who knows to which level.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#74

Post by seppin » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:22 AM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #61

filleduchaos wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're not testing a sizeable enough sample of the population, then whatever number of cases you give has to be taken with a rather large helping of salt. For example, my country's CDC has the official number of confirmed cases in the low hundreds with a dozen deaths, but anyone wise enough knows that between the ridiculously low number of samples tested (less than ten thousand in a population of a couple hundred…

Completely agreed. Sweden is worth observing in terms of number of deaths and how overloaded their hospitals get. But their number of cases , like in a lot of countries, is essentially garbage data that can't possibly help our understanding of the situation to consume.

Right, but in planning for a hospital overrun you can't see it coming if you have no idea how many sick you have, if you don't test.

Are you suggesting that as long as your hospitals aren't overrun, inflection rates aren't worth knowing ?

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#75

Post by seppin » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:23 AM UTC

2019-nCoV wrote: post #31

JamisonM wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Russia is already setting that example, really no need for two. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-russia-spike-cases-1....

Russia is honestly handling the crisis better than most of the western world. They've done >1.6M tests with a positivity rate of 1.7%.

That positive rate is far too low. If you get < 15% anywhere with a proven widespread outbreak you aren't doing enough testing.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#76

Post by sebastianconcpt » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:23 AM UTC

romwell wrote: post #3

Good luck to all Brazilians. They'll need it.

Heat is providing a lot of natural defense. Things are already going way better than predicted.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#77

Post by sebastianconcpt » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:24 AM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #37

Bolsonaro believes that he’s personally immune because he’s an “athlete”. Wish I was kidding.

Isn't that recover of viral diseases which we don't have vaccines for are a function of immune system's response?

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#78

Post by jryle70 » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:25 AM UTC

2019-nCoV wrote: post #31

JamisonM wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Russia is already setting that example, really no need for two. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-russia-spike-cases-1....

Russia is honestly handling the crisis better than most of the western world. They've done >1.6M tests with a positivity rate of 1.7%.

Moscow's metro has been a mess the last few days as big crowd waiting for permission checking:

https://varlamov.ru/3860702.html

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#79

Post by jhwang5 » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:25 AM UTC

aphroz wrote: post #62

2019-nCoV wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still exceeds average seasonal mortality rates, see https://www.euromomo.eu

But, is it significant compared to 2016 ?

Why are you glossing over the fact that the numbers were DESPITE having done a global lockdown? If we didn’t do a lockdown, it’d be way higher.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#80

Post by tinus_hn » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:26 AM UTC

perl4ever wrote: post #57

roel_v wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the Netherlands (for March) mortality for all age cohorts is up, average of about 10%. Lower cohorts mortality is down but not enough to offset the others. Causality is by definition impossible to ascertain at this aggregate level, but no reasonable person would come with another explanation.

As others say or imply, you'd want to get data for a seasonal curve and then use it to adjust.

These graphs are in the document prepared daily (on the last page):

https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/epidemiologische-situatie-cov...

You can see that there are approximately 1500 more deaths per week and there is no peak visible.