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L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

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Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#131

Post by eropple »

nightstaywalki wrote: post #117
eropple wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the off chance that you're saying this in good faith? Generally speaking it's because Just Asking Questions comes with motives that suck. Maybe you're the one whose don't and you are tragically caught up amidst the sewage flow of "screw 'em" types, but playing the percentages on bad-faith argumentation is pretty safe. Trolls and other turds make a point of wasting people's reserves of good faith as a tactic to dom…

I'm just as confused. It's prompted another strong reaction in you but I genuinely don't get why. I don't know what motives you think I have, or why I might be arguing in bad faith, or why you're talking about trolls and turds (?). Why is it so wrong to ask 'are we sure we're going the right way - this way seems to have a lot of problems - are we sure the other way has more?' Some people literally kill themselves whe…

We are confident the other way has more problems and more outright destruction because the other way blows up our hospitals and everyday life becomes nonfunctional anyway.

This is my last message in this subthread because your misreading of my post to put on a hairshirt has convinced me that you are not here to discuss the topic in good faith. HAND.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#132

Post by eropple »

randallsquared wrote: post #120
eropple wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In no realistic permutation. Thanks for asking!

Is ~20 million out of work people in the US alone not realistic? That's already happened, so you might want to become concerned. Are widespread food shortages in six months realistic? I guess we'll see.

20m out of work is awful and can be dealt with without causing a public health crisis. Keynes won; we understand how to deal with this.

Food shortages don't appear to be realistic and hinge on assumptions that don't seem to hold water.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#133

Post by therealdrag0 »

option wrote: post #68
yibg wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there any examples of milder social distancing without extensive testing and contact tracing that has been effective? There are certainly a lot of examples of delayed or poorly enforced / adhered social distancing that has proved to be ineffective.

Sweden. Also look how different states/counties are affected in US

Sweden has one of the highest deaths/million.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#134

Post by kmtrowbr »

CydeWeys wrote: post #114
dehrmann wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My fear is that 2-3 months of lockdown isn't a cure, it turns into on-and-off lockdown, herd immunity is never established because immunity wears off in 2 years, and a vaccine is 2-5 years out. Ignoring the economics, preserving life takes on new meaning if you count a every locked down day as taking away an hour of life from someone. Take the Bay Area. At 7.7M people, every day, there are 11.7 lifespans wasted by lo…

There's no basis for your fear that immunity would wear off in two years. Unlike the cold and the flu, these coronavirus strains do not mutate quickly enough to cause quick loss of immunity. It seems more akin to chickenpox, which you can only catch once (and shingles doesn't count). So, take heart in this at least?

common cold = caused by coronaviruses, COVID-19 = an uncommonly deadly coronavirus

RNA viruses have a faster mutation rate than DNA viruses.

Chickenpox = DNA virus, Coronavirus = RNA virus.

That Chickenpox is a DNA virus is why, like HIV, it can survive in the body for the long term and re-emerge decades later as shingles. DNA has a double helix which has error-correction and is more stable. However that makes it also physically larger and more complicated. RNA is small, sloppy, and cheap.

Source of all this: Spillover, David Quammen: https://www.amazon.com/Spillover-Animal-Infections-Human-Pan..., it's a good & topical book, a little bleak but good. There's a discussion of exactly this about halfway through the book.

So I do not believe your comment is factually correct. Sadly, the COVID-19 causing virus should have a high potential mutation rate similarly to all RNA viruses.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#135

Post by x86_64Ubuntu »

christophilus wrote: post #61
torpfactory wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you act early, it will always appear you overreacted. If you act too late, well... https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000007076660/corona...

This goes both ways, though. If you act early-- and way over-react-- and it works, you get to claim to be the savior of the country, even though the reaction was disproportionate. There's no way to disprove it.

But we have other countries that didn't react at all and their crematoriums have been running non-stop, like Iran, China and Italy. We also have NYC, which has brought in mobile morgues for their dead since the standard system can't handle the overflow. Why are we acting like we don't know what outcome we are trying to defend against?

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#136

Post by x86_64Ubuntu »

tempsy wrote: post #67
simonw wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems pretty clear to me that California has so few cases precisely because of the measures it has taken.

The economic toll of shelter in place vs enforced social distancing + mask wearing while keeping most businesses open is huge though. I’m not convinced quarantine is/was necessary for most of the country, including California.

So when should have China, Italy and Iran had invoked quarantine?

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#137

Post by therealdrag0 »

jarfil wrote: post #126
tempsy wrote: post #26

I’m definitely in the camp that “the cure cannot be worse than the disease” itself. Sitting in California where there are so few cases makes me wonder if the economic toll is totally worth it. Seems like we’ve used a tsunami to put out a campfire.

The fun part about this virus is that it works on a 10 day delay, so you can either prevent infections long before it has a chance to start killing people, or you can start dealing with the epidemic once it's too late to stop it. Also, California ICUs are at 80% capacity, so there isn't that much room left to relax unless you want them to get verwhelmed and start sending people back home to die.

Where'd you get 80%? The site I have bookmarked shows 25% (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/cali...)

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#139

Post by vondur »

thaumaturgy wrote: post #35
tempsy wrote: post #26

I’m definitely in the camp that “the cure cannot be worse than the disease” itself. Sitting in California where there are so few cases makes me wonder if the economic toll is totally worth it. Seems like we’ve used a tsunami to put out a campfire.

It's been very hard for me to understand this line of thinking. As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. Do you think California would not have many more cases if the measures were relaxed? Or do you think that the cases would not be all that bad? Or do you think that they would only affect people that you aren't personally concerned about? I'm asking honestly fo…

I totally believe that the coronavirus has been in California since December and peaked in February. I’m sure if we look back we can find evidence of people getting sick and recovering. Those who died were listed as death from pneumonia or something else.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#140

Post by fullshark »

CydeWeys wrote: post #110
fullshark wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally think something should have been done, but it's an open question if we went too far or not far enough and am willing to listen to the argument that we went too far. It's unlikely what was done was the absolute perfect policy prescription given all the trade offs involved. Personally I'm looking to Sweden's data, a country that instituted some social distancing measures (no crowds above 50) but not all (R…

Give it time. They're still in full exponential growth, whereas every place that enacted social distancing rules a couple weeks ago or more is now plateauing.

Possibly, their numbers the last 4 days are bizarre, potentially due to holiday effects.

My guess is what's going to happen is they will see more deaths, but not an unreasonable number and both sides of the debate will declare victory as they move the goal posts sufficiently.

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